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CLIMATE-L NEWS
ISSUE
7
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Contents
1. GOVT TO CONSIDER ENVIRONMENT TAX FOR FY04 REFORMS, Yomiuri Shimbun
January 10, 2003
2. FISHING FOR CLUES, Newsday, January 10, 2003
3. PATAKI RECEIVING PRAISE FOR HIGHER RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL, AP
January 9, 2003
4. GLOBAL WARMING WILL BRING INCREASED COSTS TO COMMUNITIES, Stuff,
January 9, 2003
5. TOKYO WINDMILLS TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING, Yomiuri Shimbun, January
9, 2003
6. A SOUTH POLE TREK IN SEARCH OF GLOBAL WARMING, The Christian
Science Monitor, January 8, 2003
7. U.S. SENATE BILL WOULD CAP GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, ENS, January
8, 2003
8. TOKYO BACKS CO2-CUTTING PROJECTS OVERSEAS, Asia Pulse, January 7,
2003
9. FACING UP TO THE GLOBAL WARMING THREAT, Mainichi Shimbun, January
6, 2003
10. SCIENTISTS SEE WIDE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON WILD PLANTS,
ANIMALS, Jamaica Observer, January 5, 2003
11. SCIENTISTS DISCOVER GLOBAL WARMING LINKED TO INCREASE IN TROPOPAUSE HEIGHT OVER PAST TWO DECADES, SpaceRef, January 4, 2003
12. CULTURE CLUB, Economic Times, January 4, 2003
13. MELTING ICE SHEET IN ANTARCTICA YIELDS CLUES ON GLOBAL WARMING,
Seattle Post Intelligencer, January 3, 2003
14. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR 2003, The New York Times,
January 2, 2003
15. AIR POLLUTION IN 2002: LOOKING BACK OVER CLIMATE CHANGE,
PARTICULATES AND CO, Edie weekly summaries, January 3, 2003
16. AIR POLLUTION IN REVIEW FOR 2002, A YEAR FOR TACKLING TRANSPORT
EMISSIONS, Edie weekly summaries, January 3, 2003
17. ENERGY REVIEW FOR 2002: WIND ENERGY THRIVES, BUT KYOTO COULD PUSH
PRICES UP, Edie weekly summaries, January 3, 2003
18. CAR IMPORTS TO DISPLAY GREEN CREDENTIALS, Swissinfo, January 3,
2003
19. ANTARCTICA'S ICE SHEET MELTING NATURALLY, BBC, January 3, 2003
20. BRITAIN URGES MOTORISTS TO CHANGE TO CHEAPER GAS, Planet Ark,
January 3, 2003
21. COMPANY TO BEGIN LEASING STATIONARY FUEL CELLS IN JAPAN, Fuel Cell
Today, January 3, 2003
22. HOLD THE COAL, SAY CONSUMERS, AND PASS THE WIND, Sydney Morning
Herald, January 2, 2003
23. CALIFORNIA EMISSION STANDARDS SHOULD BE MODERATED, CHRYSLER SAYS,
AP, January 2, 2002
24. ARGUMENTS HEAT UP OVER WATER, DAMS AND CLIMATE CHANGE, World
Rivers Review, January 2003
25. TSE TO CREATE MARKET FOR GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS TRADING, Japan
Today, January 1, 2003
26. STUDY EMPLOYS BACKYARD SCIENTISTS TO DOCUMENT GLOBAL WARMING
IMPACT, Michigan State University, January 1, 2003
27. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO GO FROM WARM TO WARMER, New York Times,
December 31, 2002
28. METEOROLOGISTS, ENVIRONMENTALISTS DISMAYED AT BUSH ADMINISTRATION,
Sydney Morning Herald, December 30, 2002
29. INSURANCE SURVEY: NATURAL DISASTERS CAUSED US$55 BILLION IN DAMAGE
IN 2002, AP, December 30, 2002
30. 'NEXT YEAR WILL BE HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN', New Zealand
Herald, December 29, 2002
31. ISLANDERS WORRY AS TIDE KEEPS RISING, Los Angeles Times, December
29, 2002
32. FUROR OVER RATIFICATION IS OVER; CANADA MOVES TO MAKING KYOTO
WORK, Canada.Com, December 28, 2002
33. PLANNED EU EMISSIONS SCHEME TRIGGERS FIRST TRADES, Planet Ark,
December 23, 2002
34. GLOBAL WARMING EVIDENCE MOUNTS; FLURRY OF REPORTS SHOW A WITHERING
ICE CAP, SFgate.com, December 23, 2002
35. GREENHOUSE GASES DECREASE EXPERTS CITE U.S. ECONOMIC DECLINE, WARM
WINTER, Washington Post, December 21, 2002
36. KYOTO WILL ONLY POSTPONE GLOBAL WARMING, Edie, December 20, 2002
37. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM TRADING: THE FORGOTTEN FIGURES, Edie
weekly summaries, December 20, 2002
38. OAKLAND JOINS SUIT ON GLOBAL WARMING, East Bay Business Times,
December 20, 2002
39. UN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY WELCOMES CANADAS RATIFICATION OF KYOTO
PROTOCOL, United Nations, December 19, 2002
40. UK ENERGY PAPER TO PLAN AHEAD HALF A CENTURY, Planet Ark, December
19, 2002
41. FOCUS SHIFTS TO RUSSIA AS KYOTO CLUB REACHES 100, Economic Times,
December 19, 2002
42. MINISTRY PUSHES NEW GASOLINE BLEND; FUEL CONTAINING PLANT-DERIVED
ALCOHOL SEEN AS KYOTO PROTOCOL WINNER, The Japan Times, December 17, 2002
43.
LOOK WHAT POLITICAL WILL CAN DO by Christopher Flavin and Gary Gardner,
International Herald Tribune, January 9, 2003
44. INSURERS SHOULD FIGHT TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT by Kalliope
Gourntis, International Herald Tribune, January 7, 2003
45. CLIMATE CHANGE "ADAPTATION": OPPORTUNITY AND THREAT FOR RIVERS by
Patrick McCully, World Rivers Review, January 2002
46. END OF YEAR EDITORIAL by Klaus Toepfer, UNEP
47. AMERICAN CONGRESS CAN AFFECT GLOBAL WARMING by James Gustave Speth,
YaleGlobal, December 27, 2002
48. BIG RETHINK NEEDED ON ELECTRICITY by John Blakeley, New Zealand
Herald, December 20, 2002
49. WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2002: GLOBAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD, RETURN TO EL NIÑO
CONDITIONS WMO December 17, 2002
GENERAL NEWS
1)
GOVT TO CONSIDER ENVIRONMENT TAX FOR FY04 REFORMS
Yomiuri Shimbun
January 10, 2003
Internet:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030110wo33.htm
The government and ruling parties aim to create a plan to implement
environment and other taxes in fiscal 2004 tax reforms in a bid to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, sources said
recently. Specifically, the government and ruling parties will look into
transferring a portion of special tax revenues earmarked for road
construction, such as revenues from the gasoline tax, to funds for combating
global warming.
Also, they are looking into the creation of a "carbon tax," to be determined
by factors including the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by burning fossil
fuels such as petroleum and coal, the sources said. Last year, the
government ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which obliges industrially advanced
nations to cut down their greenhouse gas emissions. In June, a Central
Environment Council committee specializing in taxes to combat global warming
said in an interim report that anti-global warming taxes would be
implemented within a three-year period starting in 2005. Such moves have
made the government Tax Commission more forward-looking in terms of
introducing environment taxes, the sources said. The government and ruling
parties will begin looking into such taxes with the intention of presenting
a plan for their implementation in fiscal 2004 tax reforms.
2) FISHING FOR CLUES
Newsday
January 10, 2003
Internet:
http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ny-hsfish103081961jan10,0,4099908.story?coll=ny-health-headlines
The best indicator of what's happening to global climate could turn out to
be fish, scientists said yesterday. According to biological oceanographer
Francisco Chavez, a small change, perhaps less than 2 degrees Fahrenheit ,
determines whether huge schools of sardines, or anchovies, occupy fishing
grounds off California, Japan and Peru. When the Pacific is warm, sardines
abound. When it's cool, anchovies thrive. These periods in which one or the
other dominate appear to run in 25-year cycles. We are, perhaps, about 5
years into a cooling trend. "What surprised me most was that people in
different parts of the world were seeing this, but without realizing they
were all the same thing," said Chavez, at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research
Institute in California. "It's seen all around the Pacific." He added,
however, that "I wasn't the first one to notice these cycles. The Japanese
first published on it in 1983. They saw the sardine population changes, and
they were first to plot the sardines off Japan, California and Peru."
Now Chavez and three colleagues - whose work is published in today's issue
of Science - suggest that fish populations and where the fish are can offer
clues to changes in global climate. "Because ... [the changes in fish] are
fairly long-term and significant, they can play into the global warming
interpretations," he said. Oceanographer Frank Schwing, at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration laboratory in Pacific Grove, Calif.,
said Chavez's report "is a nice summary of things we've been looking at for
some time. A lot of scientists have speculated there is a relationship
between these climate cycles and fish population cycles."
While more study is needed, what seems clear is that a 25-year cycle does
exist, and it resembles the known, but more frequent, climate changes called
El Niño and La Niña. These occur alternately in roughly four-year cycles,
with impact on winter weather, the number of hurricanes that form, plus
droughts and floods at various places around the world. Even though the
temperature changes involved in "swapping" the domination of fish species
are subtle and don't come often, the economic impact is indeed large. When
California's sardines suddenly disappeared about 1950, for example, Cannery
Row in Monterey, Calif., soon died. "I think what happened to the sardine
fishery in the 1940s was that the population was vulnerable to changing
climate," Schwing said, "and that, combined with continued heavy fishing
pressure, led to the drop in numbers of fish available," and the demise of
Cannery Row.
The huge anchovy fishery off coastal Peru is still very lucrative, however,
although it goes through distinct cycles of boom and bust. These small,
silvery fish are caught in the thousands of tons, and are processed into
fertilizer and chicken feed. Right now, Chavez said, the ocean is cool and
the anchovies are there. The Peruvians are benefiting from "the largest
single-species fishery in the world." As a result of recent research, Chavez
added, "a lot of people have started to realize there are these 25-year
periods, when certain species tend to dominate. So these organisms may be
better indicators of climate change than some of our sophisticated measuring
devices." There is also evidence that these longer climate cycles are
involved in the abundance of salmon and other fish in the waters off Alaska,
Washington, Oregon and
Northern California, the researchers said.
See Also:
Fisheries Ebb and Flow in 50-Year Cycle, Study Says, National Geographic
News, January 9, 2003
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/01/0109_030109_fisheries.html
3) PATAKI RECEIVING PRAISE FOR HIGHER RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL
AP
January 9, 2003
Internet:
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ny--renewableenergy0109jan09,0,6176709.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) _ Gov. George Pataki was praised by environmentalists
Thursday for his promise to mandate increases in the amount of electricity
generated in New York from renewable energy sources like wind and solar
power. Pataki said he will order the state Public Service Commission to
implement a renewable portfolio standard of 25 percent on in-state power
generation. Utilities must meet the goal in 10 years, the governor said in
an initiative first mentioned in his State of the State speech to the state
Legislature on Wednesday. "To have the governor make this commitment is an
unbelievable piece of good news for the environment," said John Stouffer,
legislative director for the Sierra Club's Atlantic Chapter.
Anne Reynolds, air and energy program director of Environmental Advocates
called Pataki's announcement "excellent news for the state's public health,
economy and environment." She said it was a first step toward New York's
adoption of a global-warming action plan. About 17 percent of the
electricity generated in New York state is produced by renewable sources _
virtually all of that hydroelectricity. The bulk of the state's hydropower
comes from the big power stations on the St. Lawrence and Niagara rivers.
A Greenhouse Gas Task Force appointed by Pataki recommended that a renewable
electricity mandate be adopted in New York state. Thirteen other states have
some form of a mandate, including Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut,
Pennsylvania, Texas and California. Power plants that burn fossil fuels
like oil are the biggest producers of air pollution in New York other than
automobiles. Environmentalists call renewable energy "clean," non-polluting
sources of power. Gavin Donohue, executive director of the Independent
Power Producers of New York, called Pataki's goal "very ambitious." It
cannot be reached, he said, unless existing hydropower plants are included
in the definition of renewable energy _ some environmentalists balk at that
because of the effect on aquatic life near the hydro stations _ along with
garbage-burning waste-to-energy plants.
Jason Babbie, an environmental specialist with the New York Public Interest
Research Group, said existing hydro plants should be included in the
renewable calculations, but not waste-to-energy facilities. "Anything that
would include incineration of waste we oppose because there are major air
(pollution) impacts from incineration," Babbie said. It will be up to the
Public Service Commission to decide if some or all existing hydro plants are
included in the 25 percent mandate under Pataki's plan. Not surprisingly,
the governor was also praised by renewable energy groups. David Wooley,
regional representative of the American Wind Energy Association, said a
significant investment in wind power generation would help stabilize the
prices of electricity and natural gas. "Wind power acts as a buffer against
electricity price volatility because the wind is free and inexhaustible,"
Wooley said.
Wind power producers say there are many areas in the state where large-scale
generation of electricity from wind is feasible, including Long Island and
areas east of the Great Lakes. Anthony Pereira, president of the New York
Solar Energy Industries Association, said its members are creating a "wealth
of new jobs" in the state by utilizing state-of-the-art technology to
generate electricity from the sun. "Governor Pataki is showing the vision
and leadership needed to promote further solar electric deployment during
these challenging economic times," Pereira said. In June 2001, Pataki
issued an executive order giving all state agencies until 2010 to get their
sources from "green" sources.
4) GLOBAL WARMING WILL BRING INCREASED COSTS TO COMMUNITIES
Stuff
January 9, 2003
Internet:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,2177570a11,00.html
More droughts, floods and higher temperatures predicted for most parts of
New Zealand as a result of global warming will mean significant costs for
communities, climate change experts say. Information from the Government's
New Zealand Climate Change Project estimates that temperatures in Nelson and
Marlborough could become up to 2.5° warmer over the next 70 to 100 years,
while temperatures in Wellington, Kapiti, Wairarapa, Hawke's Bay, Gisborne
and the Manawatu/Whanganui regions could be up to 3° hotter.
The predicted increases compare to an overall temperature increase in New
Zealand during last century of about 0.7°, which experts say globally has
already been linked to shifts of plants and animals, melting of glaciers and
sea-ice, and rises in average sea levels. For New Zealand, the temperature
rises will mean more extreme hot days and heat waves, but fewer frosts.
Rainfall will also be more variable in many areas, with heavy rainfall
becoming more intense and frequent. Tropical cyclone winds are likely to
become more intense, with heavier rainfall causing floods and property
damage. Some regions will expect more than average rainfall, while others
are likely to get less, with an increased risk of drought in areas that are
already dry. The effects of such climate change are likely to bring
significant costs to the community, as the cost of dealing with stock
losses, replacing or repairing damaged roads, bridges, houses and stormwater
drains, and increased soil erosion hits home.
Beneficial effects could include less need for heating in winter and may
mean some areas will be able to grow crops that they are unable to now. But
for Wellington, Kapiti and Wairarapa, western areas could be up to 20 per
cent wetter, while eastern areas could be up to 20 per cent drier. The
regions as a whole are likely to experience more varied rainfall patterns
and flooding could become up to four times as frequent by 2070. The outlook
is similar for the Manawatu/Whanganui area, which could be up to 20 per cent
wetter, with more varied rainfall patterns and flooding. By contrast,
Hawke's Bay and Gisborne, like much of the east coast, is likely to become
warmer and drier by as much as to 20 per cent, but with more varied rainfall
patterns. But like many regions, flooding could become up to four times as
frequent by 2070. The top of the South Island could be up to 10 per cent
wetter, while coastal Marlborough could be 10 per cent drier and flooding
could be more frequent.
5) TOKYO WINDMILLS TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING
Yomiuri Shimbun
January 9, 2003
Internet:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030107wo61.htm
Two 70-meter-high windmills will be built on a Tokyo waterfront this month
to generate wind power, a source said. While there are about 450 windmills
nationwide, these will be the first to be constructed in the metropolitan
area. Officials of the metropolitan government, which is involved in the
project, said they hoped the new windmills would become a symbol of Tokyo's
efforts to counter global warming. The windmills will be built on a
landfill site near breakwaters in Tokyo Bay, at the southern end of Tokyo's
Daiba waterfront area, more commonly known as Odaiba. They will be visible
from Tokyo Disneyland and Haneda Airport.
The windmills, made in Denmark, are scheduled to be transported to the site
by Thursday, where they will be assembled later this month. They will start
operating from the end of March. The windmills will be managed by J Wind
Tokyo, a company co launched by Toyota Tsusho Co. and Electric Power
Development Co. The two new windmills are capable of generating a maximum
of 1,700 kilowatts. The planners expect the windmills to generate a total of
2.5 million kilowatt-hours annually--enough energy to provide electricity to
about 800 households. The power generated will be sold to Tokyo Electric
Power Co.
As of March, windmills nationwide generated a total of 310,000 kWh. A
government outline that promotes measures to combat global warming suggested
this figure be increased to 3 million kWh by the end of fiscal 2010. In
addition to constructing the two new windmills, the metropolitan government
will research wind conditions at two locations near Odaiba to examine the
possibility of constructing more windmills in the area. The government will
decide on further windmills after studying research results to be submitted
by the end of this year.
6) A SOUTH POLE TREK IN SEARCH OF GLOBAL WARMING
The Christian Science Monitor
January 8, 2003
Internet:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0108/p02s01-wogi.html
Just over 90 years after the first humans set foot at the South Pole, a team
of US scientists has completed a rare cross-country trek to Antarctica's
southernmost point as part of an international effort to uncover the history
of climate change on Earth's most inhospitable continent. The 775-mile
route they followed would take 11 hours to cover on an interstate highway.
Under polar conditions, however, the 10-member team took 27 days to make the
trip. Along the route, the expedition's 14-ton sled-tugging tractors crept
through deep snowdrifts, hunkered down during howling blizzards, dodged deep
crevasses, and stopped to extract hundreds of core samples from the top 160
to 400 feet of the two-mile-thick mantle of ice that covers the continent.
Researchers are keenly interested in that ice cover and the climate regimes
that govern its growth and shrinkage. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is seen
as a possible source of the water that raised sea levels by as much as 25
meters in a period of less than 1,000 years - probably between 14,000 and
11,000 years ago. During the past 10,000 years, the sheet has thinned by
more than 2,300 feet at the coast, a process that continues today.
Understanding the links and tracking the ice's history are vital to
forecasting its future behavior, particularly if the global climate's
current warming trend continues, according to Paul Mayewski, a geologist at
the University of Maine and the expedition's leader. Research reported last
week in the journal Science indicates that the sheet's long-term decline is
expected to continue, part of a natural process that began with the end of
the last ice age.
TIME CAPSULES MADE OF ICE
"In the short-term the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is generally stable," Dr.
Mayewski says. The new ice cores and other data the group collected track
changes that have occurred over the past 200 to 1,000 years.
By
comparing these data with those from deeper core samples from elsewhere on
the continent, scientists hope to find out how much of this deglaciation is
part of a long-term natural process and whether the trend may be
accelerating due to global warming. "We'll be able to answer these questions
in the next year or two," after all the data have been analyzed, he says.
The expedition, which reached the South Pole Jan. 2, got off to an
inauspicious start. The team initially attempted the trip Nov. 23. But
"within 48 hours, we realized we weren't going to make it," Mayewski told a
press conference conducted via phone from the South Pole. The snow was much
heavier than predicted, bogging down the team's two 27,000 pound tractors
and their 50,000 pound sleds in snowdrifts up to the tractors' axles. In two
days the team had moved a mere 25 miles from Byrd Station, its starting
point. By Dec. 7, however, mechanics had replaced the sleds' skis with
runners that looked more like sea-plane pontoons, giving the sleds greater
buoyancy. The heavy snow and milder-than-expected temperatures (between
minus 4 and minus 18 degrees Fahrenheit instead of minus 40 degrees F.) were
consistent with climate-model predictions of El Niño's effect on the
continent, still something of a surprise since its effect is much less
evident in the Arctic, researchers say. "It really shows the strong
connection between conditions in the tropical Pacific and the South Pole,"
Mayewski says.
AN EXPEDITION WITHOUT HUSKIES
Along the way, members of the three-woman, seven-man research team lived in
insulated plywood bunkhouses and ate in a special mess tent on the sleds the
tractors pulled. The tent doubled as the women's dorm, while one of the bunk
houses did double duty as a lab. The mini tractor train also carried the
fuel for transportation, heat, and electric generators. The expedition was
conducted under the aegis of the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific
Expedition (ITASE), a multi-year program of Antarctic research involving 19
countries. Where some polar field projects are interested in pinning down
the physical processes determining how the climate system works at high
latitudes, ITASE is trying to gather climate records from across as much of
the frozen continent as possible. "Antarctica is one of the most data-sparse
areas on the planet" when it comes to climate, notes David Bromwich, an
associate professor of atmospheric science at Ohio State University. The
ice-core samples provide tree-ring-like information on precipitation levels.
They also trap air samples and particles from past events such as volcanic
eruptions or major storms. By taking cores from regions where the layers are
relatively flat, and calibrating them using the past 50 years of instrument
measurements, the cores can provide a more comprehensive window on climate
than information from a handful of locations on the continent.
UNDERNEATH THE RADAR
In
addition, researchers are using radar to map the bedrock far below the ice
sheet's surface. The radar also is proving useful for exploring ice layers
without the need to drill or dig trenches, and for spotting crevasses ahead
of the tiny convoy. The deep radar aims to see how the bedrock influences
the surface shape of the ice sheet, according to expedition scientist Steve
Arcone, a geophysicist with the US Army Corps of Engineers Cold Regions
Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H. That information is
critical to selecting sites for coring because ice layers can get compressed
and jumbled as the sheet glides over bedrock features, making interpretation
of the layers more difficult. One solution was to use a shallower radar
scan. That resulted in layers of ice showing up in the radar return,
yielding a way to gauge year-to-year snowfall rates - a key to understanding
the degree to which the ice sheet is losing or gaining mass, and an
indicator of historic weather patterns. The radar returns seem to vary in
strength every six miles or so, Dr. Arcone says. "It looks like the radar
picked up different climate regimes" as it moved from region to region.
Between the radar data and weather balloons the team regularly launched, the
researchers took measurements "from bedrock to 23 kilometers above the ice
surface," Mayewski says.
7) U.S. SENATE BILL WOULD CAP GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
ENS
January 8, 2003
Internet:
http://ens-news.com/ens/jan2003/2003-01-08-06.asp
WASHINGTON, DC, January 8, 2003 (ENS) - A bipartisan bill introduced in a
U.S. Senate hearing today would attempt to curb global warming by
establishing a market based trading system in greenhouse gas emissions. The
bill, the first major piece of environmental legislation to be introduced in
the 108th Congress, was met with rousing endorsements from the conservation
community. Senators Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat, and John McCain,
an Arizona Republican, said their bill would spur innovation by giving
companies maximum flexibility in meeting national greenhouse gas emissions
goals.
"By capping emissions and tapping market forces to meet those goals, this
bill will heat up American innovation and cool down our changing climate,"
Lieberman said. "Our approach promises environmental progress in reducing
harmful global warming, economic progress by creating new high-tech jobs to
meet emissions goals, and international progress by showing our allies that
we're serious about this global problem." The bill, which will be formally
introduced soon, was the subject of a hearing today in the Senate Commerce
Committee, which McCain will soon chair. The legislation, which is modeled
after the successful acid rain trading program of the 1990 Clean Air Act,
would require a reduction to 2000 carbon dioxide emission levels by the year
2010, and a reduction to 1990 levels by the year 2016.
"Too much attention has been focused on the uncertainties, and not enough on
what is known in tackling the problem at hand," McCain said. "This bill uses
the best approach we know - a market based trading system - to reduce
emissions and give companies maximum flexibility in meeting requirements.
Ultimately, the bill rewards improvements in energy efficiency and
encourages advances in technologies." McCain and Lieberman began work on
the legislation in August 2001. The bill creates a comprehensive cap on
greenhouse gas pollution, paired with an allowance trading system aimed at
reducing the costs of meeting the caps while offering a range of
opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas pollution and boosting the uptake
of carbon by soils, crops and trees.
The bill "marks an end to stalling and the start of the search for serious
solutions to the global warming problem," said Fred Krupp, president of the
conservation group Environmental Defense. "The bill's cap on greenhouse gas
pollution takes on the problem of global warming in a strong and sensible
way," added Krupp. "The bill's cost lowering emissions trading market will
cut more dangerous pollution than traditional bureaucratic approaches and
promote innovation while spurring American economic growth." REP America,
the national grassroots organization of Republicans for Environmental
Protection praised the legislation today. "Finally, someone in Washington DC
is exercising the thoughtful leadership we urgently need to combat the
threat global warming poses to our environment, economy, and long term
security. We're not surprised that someone is John McCain, who has never
been afraid to tackle the big issues of our time," said Jim DiPeso, REP
America policy director.
But the nonprofit Competitive Enterprise Institute, a conservative public
policy group that seeks to limit government interference with "free
enterprise," calls the bill "a regressive energy tax," that would "place an
enormous burden on the U.S." While the bill will likely be supported in
McCain's Commerce Committee, and is touted by its authors as an economic
bill more than an environmental bill, it will face tough opposition from the
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, whose new chair, Oklahoma
Republican James Inhofe, opposes mandatory limits on greenhouse gas
emissions. The bill would apply to emissions from the electricity
generation, petroleum refining, industrial and commercial economic sectors,
which together account for 85 percent of overall U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions. It would apply to all entities that emit more than 10,000 metric
tons of greenhouse gases per year, and therefore would not apply to
individual car owners, homeowners or the agricultural sector. The bill is
designed to reduce emissions by allowing the trading of emissions allowances
on the open market, supported by a government inventory of emissions and
emission reductions for individual companies and utilities. Most companies
would be required to submit one tradable allowance for each metric ton of
greenhouse gasses they emit, while petroleum refiners and importers would
have to submit an allowance for each unit of petroleum product sold that
will produce a metric ton of emissions.
The Commerce Secretary would determine the number of emissions allowances
each company would receive free of charge, and how many would be auctioned
off. Proceeds from the auction of these allowances would be used to reduce
the energy costs of consumers and assist workers affected by the new
policy. Companies could buy and sell credits among themselves, and could
satisfy up to 15 percent of its emission reduction requirements by
submitting tradable allowances from another nation's market in greenhouse
gases, or by contributing to projects that sequester carbon dioxide
emissions.
Automakers could earn credits that they could sell to other companies if
they exceeded the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards by more
than 20 percent. The CAFE standards spell out the average number of miles
per gallon that a manufacturer's vehicles must achieve. Many automakers now
meet this standard by offering a small number of very efficient vehicles,
such as electric or hybrid gasoline-electric cars, to offset the poor
efficiency performance of popular sport utility vehicles and other large
vehicles. Any company that failed to meet the emissions limits set by the
bill would be fined for each ton of greenhouse gases over the cap at the
rate of three times the market value of a ton of greenhouse gas. The market
value would be based upon the price of emission credits from trading system
provided for in the bill.
Companies would have the economic choice of reducing their emissions to
reduce their required allowances, or purchasing other companies' allowances
to cover their continued emissions. Companies that have voluntarily
undertaken efforts to reduce their greenhouse gases would receive credit for
those actions. The "cap and trade" approach, which is expected to be
adopted by Japan, the European Union, and other parties that have ratified
the Kyoto Protocol, is supported by the environmental community and the
independent Pew Center on Global Climate Change. The approach has
successfully reduced the emissions of acid rain causing pollutants through a
program established in the 1990 Clean Air Act.
So far, the Bush administration has declined to embrace a "cap and trade"
concept, or offer any kind of plan that would reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. President George W. Bush has also withdrawn U.S. support for the
Kyoto Protocol, an adjunct to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change which will become law when a minimum of 55 countries covering
at least 55 percent of 1990 greenhouse gas emissions have ratified the
pact. The announcement of the new emissions trading bill was seen by
conservation groups as a sign that the Bush administration's past policy
toward global warming will be challenged, even under the Republican
controlled Congress.
"It's encouraging to see real action on the environment by senior statesmen
so early in the new Congress," said Katherine Silverthorne, deputy director
of the U.S. climate change program at the World Wildlife Fund. "The
McCain-Lieberman bill could jump start U.S. policy on global warming." The
two senators worked with both industry and conservation groups as they
designed the legislation, attempting to craft an approach that would address
the concerns of American businesses while taking positive steps toward
reducing global warming. "This effort to solve global warming puts to rest
all the excuses for doing nothing: This bill is bipartisan, it achieves
environmental goals by encouraging innovation and American ingenuity, and
its flexible approach is supported by industry," said Mark Van Putten,
president of the National Wildlife Federation. "This is an opportunity for
Congress to provide responsible environmental leadership where the White
House has failed."
Global warming is a growing problem, with 2002 closing as the second warmest
year on record. The 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1987, with nine
of them happening since 1990. Two studies in the current edition of the
journal "Nature" show that global warming is already posing a threat to a
variety of plants and animals, and other research suggests that the sea ice
around the Earth's poles could melt entirely by the end of this century.
"We are already beginning to see the environmental impacts of global warming
coast to coast, from coral reef bleaching in the Caribbean to the loss of
treasured pine forests in coastal Alaska," said Van Putten. "Each year we
procrastinate makes the problem harder to solve."
See Also:
Fight Ahead on Emissions, McCain, Lieberman Plan Push for Greenhouse Gas
Limits,
Washington Post, January 7, 2003
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19534-2003Jan6.html
Lieberman and McCain Turn Up Heat for Carbon Limits, New Dem Daily, January
8, 2003
http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=131&subid=192&contentid=251140
Reductions Sought in Greenhouse Gases, Criticizing Bush, Senators Would Set
Deadlines,
Washington Post, January 9, 2003
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30225-2003Jan8.html
Finally, Some Global Warming Leadership, REP America, January 08, 2003
http://www.enn.com/direct/display-release.asp?id=7974
Warm-Up for Climate Debate, Washington Post, January 6, 2003
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15015-2003Jan5.html
Heavyweight senators push Bush to set greenhouse gas limits, Sydeny Morning
Herald, Janury 9, 2003
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/01/09/1041990049805.html
McCain and Lieberman Offer Bill to Require Cuts in Gases, Washington Post,
January 10, 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/09/politics/09ENVI.html?ex=1042779600&en=ba624b1b275d9264&ei=5006&partner=ALTAVISTA1
2 rivals join to oppose Bush on global warming, International Herald
Tribune, January 10, 2003http://www.iht.com/articles/82844.html
8) TOKYO BACKS CO2-CUTTING PROJECTS OVERSEAS
Asia Pulse
January 7, 2003
Internet:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/EA07Dh04.html
TOKYO - The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will back up
private-sector overseas projects to cut global-warming gas emissions through
lending, investment and trade insurance to be provided by
government-affiliated financial institutions, ministry sources said. The
move is intended to help Japan achieve its carbon-dioxide-reduction goal
stated in the Kyoto Protocol, which allows countries engaged in such
projects overseas to obtain carbon-dioxide emission rights from foreign
governments.
The protocol obliges Japan to trim its carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in
2008-12 by 6 percent from the levels seen in 1990. In other words, CO2
emission rights obtained by Japanese companies involved in overseas
energy-saving projects, such as renovating old power-generation plants and
improving factory efficiency, will count as Japan's CO2 reduction under the
protocol. METI will make it easier for private firms involved in such
overseas projects to obtain lending and investment by Development Bank of
Japan and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the sources said.
By drumming up investment from private lenders, Development Bank will set up
a 3 billion yen (US$25 million) fund to pump money into private firms'
energy-saving projects abroad, into which the public lender will also
contribute 500 million yen. Development Bank and JBIC will also be
encouraged to extend loans to private firms' environment protection-related
and other projects overseas. METI will also encourage those public lenders
to provide trade insurance to such private-sector companies to cover
possible losses from unilateral contract violations by overseas countries in
which they pursue energy-saving projects. The ministry has secured 2.5
billion yen in its fiscal 2003 budget to reduce CO2 discharges. Last
October, the ministry started procedures to award government hallmarks to
private-sector firms seeking to use the Kyoto Protocol mechanism.
9) FACING UP TO THE GLOBAL WARMING THREAT
Mainichi Shimbun
January 6, 2003
Internet:
http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/news/archive/200301/07/20030107p2a00m0oa026000c.html
The Kyoto Protocol on global warming will probably go into effect this year
if the treaty is ratified by Russia. Once the treaty is implemented, the
advanced industrialized countries will commit themselves to reducing their
emissions of greenhouse gases. There is plenty of evidence that the pace of
global warming has been accelerating. Average global temperatures have been
rising, and 1998 was the hottest year on record, and 2002 the second
hottest. At the North Pole, average annual temperatures have risen by five
degrees over the last century, and precipitation has also increased. And the
ice sheet which juts out into the sea from Antarctica has begun to break
apart.
Hotter temperatures and rising sea levels are beginning to kill off coral
reefs, and to damage saltwater marshes and other coastal ecosystems. Island
nations in the Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Caribbean are taking the threat of
global warming and rising sea levels seriously. As their coastal areas are
steadily destroyed, they cannot escape the fear that their countries will
someday be swallowed by the sea. In Japan, the average annual temperature
has risen about one degree over the past 100 years. In cities, temperatures
have risen by more than two degrees. Over the past half century, cherry
blossoms have begun to bloom five days earlier, and insects have begun to
spread northward. Many invasive species from abroad including a poisonous
spider have established themselves in Japan.
In a report entitled "The Influence of Global Warming on Japan 2001," the
Environment Ministry warns that the climate changes accompanying global
warming will reach dangerous levels in 30 years, and have a major impact on
ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. The threats to the survival of
mankind and living things should be taken seriously. It is time that we
begin to implement those solutions which are doable. Even if the Kyoto
Protocol, which commits the advanced industrialized countries to reduce
their emissions of greenhouse gases to 5 percent below 1990 levels between
2008 and 2012, is fully implemented, it will simply slow down the pace of,
but not reverse, global warming.
Japan must lead the effort to bring the U.S. back into the Kyoto Protocol,
and to convince the developing countries to reduce their own greenhouse gas
emissions. While some voices in industry claim that policies to fight global
warming cannot be adopted during a recession, efforts to reduce carbon
dioxide emissions are likely to lead to technological breakthroughs,
increase corporate competitiveness, and create jobs. Unfortunately, both
politicians and bureaucrats lack a long-term perspective, so we hope that
environmental nonprofit organizations and nongovernmental organizations will
grow more powerful so that they can begin to lead the fight against global
warming.
To bequeath a healthy Earth to the future, it is also important that we
change our outlook and values. It is a good sign that two out of three
people would like to participate actively in movements to protect the
environment, according to an Environment Ministry survey. In the year that
the Kyoto Protocol is set to take effect, we hope that Japan will steadily
implement measures to prevent global warming, and become a model of
sustainable development for the world.
10) SCIENTISTS SEE WIDE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON WILD PLANTS, ANIMALS
Jamaica Observer
January 5, 2003
Internet:
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20030105T030000-0500_37600_OBS_SCIENTISTS_SEE_WIDE_IMPACT_OF_GLOBAL_
WARMING_ON_WILD_PLANTS__ANIMALS.asp
INDIANAPOLIS, USA (AP) - Rising global temperatures that have lured plants
into early bloom and birds to nest earlier in the spring are altering the
ranges and behaviour of hundreds of plant and animal species worldwide, two
studies conclude. From North America's marmots to Britain's birds, the
findings could spell bad news for species already stressed by habitat loss
if predictions of global warming over the next century pan out, the authors
said in the studies, which appear in last Thursday's issue of the journal
Nature.
Other scientists said the studies, which are based largely on research done
previously in Europe and North America, could foretell the extinction of
many species in the coming decades as rising temperatures force them to
retreat from their historic ranges or face new competitors.
Alastair H Fitter, a professor of biology at the University of York who has
documented the trend toward earlier-blooming flowers in Britain, said the
studies' conclusions that the ranges of hundreds of species are shifting
northward in response to warming temperatures are disconcerting. He said the
two papers show that plants and animals are already being affected by global
warming, although Earth's average temperature climbed only about one degree
Fahrenheit in the past century. "These papers are the conclusive evidence
that the natural world is already responding in a big way to climate change,
even though that change has only just got going and there is a lot more to
come," Fitter said. A United Nations panel has predicted that average global
temperatures could rise as much as 10.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the next
century as heat-trapping gases from human industry accumulate in the
atmosphere. Fitter said if that occurs, it may drive some plant and animal
species to extinction as their ranges shrink or they are forced to compete
with other species moving into their territory.
Working independently, two research teams reviewed hundreds of published
papers that tracked changes in the range and behaviour of plant and animal
species believed to be caused by human-driven global warming.
Both teams concluded that they had found the "fingerprint" of global warming
on hundreds of species, from insects to birds and mammals, even after taking
into account other possible causes such as habitat loss.
Other scientists said the two studies, in pulling together hundreds of
published scientific papers for two comprehensive analyses, add another
piece of evidence - along with retreating glaciers, warming oceans and
shrinking snow cover - that global warming is impacting the Earth.
Mike Novacek, provost of science of the American Museum of Natural History
in New York, said much of the data in the two papers was based on studies of
wildlife found in North America and the United Kingdom.
New research of plants and animals representing a wider range of Earth's
life would conclusively pin down the evidence, said Novacek, who was not
involved in the research. Camille Parmesan, a biologist at the University of
Texas at Austin, worked with a colleague to review studies that tracked
about 1,700 species, often over several decades. While about half of the
species showed no changes in behaviour or range shifts, the changes seen in
the other half clearly pointed to global warming as the culprit, she said.
"The climate scientists have really shown that global warming is happening.
What we've found is that it's not only happening but it's having a big
impact," she said. In an analysis of 172 species of plants, birds,
butterflies and amphibians, Parmesan found that spring events such as
egg-laying or flower-blooming advanced 2.3 days on average each decade. Her
analysis of studies of 99 species of birds, butterflies and alpine herbs in
North America and Europe found these species' ranges have shifted northward
an average of about 3.8 miles (6.1 kilometres) per decade. Most striking,
she said, was the case of the sooty copper, a butterfly common near
Barcelona until recent decades. These days, however, residents of the
Spanish city must travel about 60 miles (100 kilometres) north to find this
butterfly. Meanwhile, the sooty copper's northern range, which once ended in
Austria, has shifted into Estonia during the past five years, Parmesan said.
The insect had previously never been seen in that Baltic nation.
A second study by Stanford University researchers reviewed scientific
studies that involved more than 1,400 plant and animal species. Terry L
Root, a senior fellow at Stanford's Institute for International Studies, and
five colleagues determined that about 80 per cent of those species have
undergone range or behavioural changes likely caused by global warming. They
found, for example, that the earlier arrival of spring weather had shifted
events such as egg-laying, the end of hibernation and flower blooming ahead
about five days per decade for temperate-zone species.
11) SCIENTISTS DISCOVER GLOBAL WARMING LINKED TO INCREASE IN TROPOPAUSE
HEIGHT OVER PAST TWO DECADES
SpaceRef
January 4, 2003
Internet:
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=673
LIVERMORE, Calif. -- Researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory have discovered another fingerprint of human effects on global
climate. Recent research has shown that increases in the height of the
tropopause over the past two decades are directly linked to ozone depletion
and increased greenhouse gases. The tropopause is the transition zone
between the lowest layer of the atmosphere -- the turbulently-mixed
troposphere -- and the more stable stratosphere. The tropopause lies roughly
10 miles above the Earth's surface at the equator and five miles above the
poles. To date, no scientist has examined whether observed changes in
tropopause height are in accord with projections from climate model
greenhouse warming experiments.
The comparison was made by Livermore scientists Benjamin Santer, James
Boyle, Krishna AchutaRao, Charles Doutriaux and Karl Taylor, along with
researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies, the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology and
the Institut f¸r Physik der Atmosphre in Germany. Their findings are
reported in the today's (Jan. 3) online edition of the Journal of
Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. This research undercuts claims by
greenhouse skeptics that no warming has occurred during the last two
decades. Such claims are based on satellite measurements of temperatures in
the troposphere, which show little or no warming since the beginning of the
satellite record in 1979.
"Weather balloons and weather forecast models show that there's been a
pronounced increase in the height of the global tropopause over the last two
decades," Santer said. "Our best understanding is that this increase is due
to two factors: warming of troposphere, which is caused by increasing
greenhouse gases, and cooling of the stratosphere, which is mainly caused by
depletion of stratospheric ozone. Tropopause height changes give us
independent evidence of the reality of recent warming of the troposphere."
The Livermore research supports the bottom-line conclusion of the 2001
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which states that, "most
of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to
the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations."
Earlier research showed that changes in the Earth's surface temperature,
ocean heat content, and Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover are other
indicators of human effects on climate change. "The climate system is
telling us a consistent story -- that humans have had a significant effect
on it," Santer said. "We're seeing detailed correspondence between computer
climate models and observations, and this correspondence is in a number of
different climate variables. Tropopause height is the latest piece of the
climate-change puzzle."
To
support the research, Livermore scientists examined tropopause height
changes in climate-change experiments using two different computer climate
models. Both models showed similar decadal-scale increases in the tropopause
height in response to changes in human-caused climate forcings. The patterns
of tropopause height change were similar in models and so-called
'reanalysis' products (a combination of actual observations and results from
a weather forecast model).
The model experiments focused on both manmade climate forcings, such as
changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric and tropospheric
ozone, and on natural forcings, such as changes in volcanic aerosols. The
forces have varying effects on atmospheric temperature, that in turn affect
tropopause height, the report concludes. Founded in 1952, Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory is a national security laboratory, with a mission to
ensure national security and apply science and technology to the important
issues of our time. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is managed by the
University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy's National
Nuclear Security Administration.
12) CULTURE CLUB
Economic Times
January 4, 2003
Internet:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/xml/comp/articleshow?artid=32991584
The environment was just right to link global issues like climate change and
sustainable development to domestic polices. But the year gone by saw India
waste a good opportunity to draw the business circle into the green culture.
If the CII complained that it had been kept out of the World Summit on
Sustainable Development, individual entrepreneurs with skeletal proposals
for the much-hyped Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto
Protocol went round in circles looking for guidance. All along,
international business houses and multilateral agencies went to town with
the message that green is also the colour of money! To be fair, the
minister for environment and forests, TR Baalu, made it clear that it would
be unrealistic to expect carbon trading to take off immediately. There are a
lot of issues to be ironed out and 02 was devoted to this.
Notably, at COP 8, India valiantly led developing countries in resisting
pressure from developed ones to take on commitments in reducing greenhouse
emissions. When developed countries tried to initiate a dialogue on broader
participation in greenhouse gases mitigation commitments for a period beyond
12, India argued that the per capital greenhouse gas emissions of
developing countries was much lower. Also, that the overriding priority for
developing countries was poverty eradication, for which economic growth is
essential. Yet India was accused of soft-pedalling on contentious issues
taking refuge behind the sustainable development formula. COP 8 did
advance the operation of the Special Climate Change Fund and Least Developed
Countries Fund to provide financial resources to developing countries. It
also concluded three years of negotiations on reporting/review under the
Kyoto Protocol. The Delhi Ministerial Declaration on Climate Change and
Sustainable Development finally brought into focus the issue of adaptation
to the adverse effects of climate change.
13) MELTING ICE SHEET IN ANTARCTICA YIELDS CLUES ON GLOBAL WARMING
Seattle Post Intelligencer
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/102682_antarctica03.shtml
A vast Antarctic ice sheet could melt away in 7,000 years, possibly raising
sea levels around the world by 16 feet, a study by University of Washington
scientists has found. And global warming could hasten the process. The
West Antarctic Ice Sheet, covering 360,000 square miles, started melting
thousands of years before mankind began burning coal and oil -- a "natural"
rate that has held steady over the centuries, according to the study. "If
we make the world warmer, it will very likely accelerate the melting rate,"
said John Stone, lead author of the study and a glacial geologist with the
UW's Department of Earth and Space Sciences. "How much, we don't know." The
discovery, published in the current issue of the journal Science, brings to
light new challenges in dealing with global warming. Sea levels are rising
because of melting glaciers and ice caps, plus a warming of the oceans that
causes the water to expand. This threatens to drown some islands and coastal
areas. Because the ice sheet -- about the size of Texas and Colorado
combined -- sits on bedrock that's mostly below sea level, scientists
believe it's particularly susceptible to future thinning and warming of the
oceans around its edges.
As
glaciers grind slowly downhill, underlying rocks and small boulders are left
behind like an outgoing tide leaving starfish on a beach. Released from the
ice, the rocks on the peaks are bombarded with cosmic rays that irradiate
them, converting elements into radioactive materials. Stone collected rocks
from the slopes of seven different mountains on the Antarctic coast, ground
them up, then measured the amount of an isotope of beryllium. The amount of
radioactive beryllium indicated how long ago the glacier had uncovered the
rocks. Stone and colleagues from the UW and three other institutions made
the surprising discovery that the glacier had been receding at a steady
state for more than 10,000 years. By contrast, the huge glaciers that
covered areas of North America and Europe reached their maximum girth about
20,000 years ago and had mostly disappeared by the time the glaciers of West
Antarctica were just starting to melt. Enough water has already been
released by the Antarctic ice sheet to raise sea levels almost 33 feet. If
the rest of the water that's locked up in the sheet melted, the oceans could
rise an additional 16 feet, the study found.
During the 20th century, sea levels rose about a half-foot due to melting
ice and warmer ocean conditions. The effects could be compounded if the
climate change results in stormier conditions. "It's a lot of dikes you have
to keep raising," said Edwin Waddington, a UW glaciologist. Scientists agree
that the climate is warming, but there's debate over how fast human behavior
-- primarily the burning of fossil fuels -- is pushing the mercury higher.
Stone, who received funding from the National Science Foundation, would like
to return to Antarctica and use his new technique to study other glaciers.
It took two trips to get the approximately 1,500 pounds of rocks he
analyzed. Most Antarctic research had focused on what was happening in the
past few decades using satellite technology or historic accounts of the size
and extent of glaciers. The new research provides needed background for
understanding more recent changes.
"When people are trying to determine how fast the sea level is rising and
why, you've got to have all of the parts to the equation," said Robert
Ackert Jr., a glacial geologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in
Massachusetts. "The Antarctic might be a bigger chunk than we had thought."
14) RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR 2003
The New York Times
January 2, 2003
Internet:
http://www.iht.com/articles/81978.html
NEW YORK Climate experts say global temperatures in 2003 could match or beat
the modern record set in 1998, when temperatures were raised sharply by El
Niño, a periodic disturbance of Pacific Ocean currents that warms the
atmosphere. The El Niño that year was the strongest ever measured. A new one
is brewing in the Pacific but is expected to remain relatively weak, experts
say. Still, they say, a persistent underlying warming trend could be enough
to push temperatures to record highs. Some of the warming could be the
result of natural climate variation, but the experts say it is almost
impossible to explain without including the heat-trapping properties of
rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted by
smokestacks and tailpipes.
The mounting evidence of human contributions to climate warming has raised
pressure on American policymakers to reconsider their reliance on voluntary
measures for reducing heat-trapping emissions. At a meeting of climate
scientists organized by the Bush administration last month, White House
officials said President George W. Bush was no longer locked into the stance
he announced last year - calling for nothing beyond voluntary measures to
slow the growth in emissions until 2012. And Senator John McCain, Republican
of Arizona, and Senator Joseph Lieberman, Democrat of Connecticut, plan to
introduce legislation early in 2003 that would gradually establish mandatory
greenhouse gas restrictions and a system in which companies could trade
credits they would earn by making emissions cuts.
The European Union, Japan and most other industrial powers have ratified the
Kyoto Protocol, a treaty that, once in effect, will require them to make
reductions. The growing shift toward action in the American debate over
greenhouse emissions comes after a decade of mounting evidence that the
recent warming is caused mainly by rising concentrations of such substances.
The main means of tracking climate change has been to synthesize hundreds of
measurements of surface temperatures around the world into a global average.
This average reading is meaningless for any particular spot, but it is a
valuable way to measure long-term trends, and it puts the planet in its
warmest period in a millennium, with the trajectory still headed upward.
According to the Commerce Department, the global average surface temperature
increased at a rate of about one degree per 100 years over the 20th century,
but since 1976 the earth has been warming at the rate of about three degrees
per century. The Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research in
Britain put the odds at 50-50 for 2003 to match or exceed the temperature
record set in 1998. James Hansen, the director of the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, put the odds
higher than that, barring a big new sun-blocking volcano or the like. A
decade-long paucity of big volcanic eruptions and a peak in solar intensity
can account for only part of the overall warming, he said, adding, "Clearly
it's primarily due to human forcing."
The global average temperature reached 58 degrees Fahrenheit (14.44
centigrade) in 1998, while the average from 1880 to 2001 was 56.9 degrees
(13.83). Preliminary estimates put the global temperature in 2002 at 57.9
degrees (14.39). Areas like Alaska have experienced sharper warming, in
patterns that largely match projections produced by computer simulations of
the climatic effect of rising greenhouse gases. The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration reported this month that satellite tracking of
surface conditions on Greenland's vast ice sheet saw more melting last
summer than at any time in the 24-year satellite record. Arctic sea ice
also retreated more than it had done before in that span, the agency said.
These time spans are short when it comes to climate, and polar experts say
it remains exceedingly difficult to ascribe regional changes to human
actions rather than natural cycles in ocean and weather circulation around
the Northern Hemisphere. The continuing global climb in temperatures,
however, is getting harder to link to natural climate fluctuations, many
scientists say. Even if 2003 does not set a record, many experts say, it
almost undoubtedly will follow a generation-long rise in temperatures that
has put the planet on course for substantial shifts in drought and storm
patterns, continuing and significant retreats of terrestrial ice, and a
resulting rise in sea levels in coming decades. In December, American and
British climate teams and the World Meteorological Organization reported
that 2002 would nudge out 2001 as the second-warmest year since the late
1800s.
While debate about the amount of atmospheric warming plays out, there is
little disagreement about the extent of warming at the surface. The shifts
around the Arctic - whether natural or human-induced - are profound, said
Waleed Abdalati, NASA's director of polar programs. "The Greenland melting
or the changes in ocean circulation or sea ice, any one of those is kind of
a 'Wow, that's interesting,'" he said.
"But when you see them collectively and kind of working in concert with one
another," Abdalati added, "that's very significant."
15) AIR POLLUTION IN 2002: LOOKING BACK OVER CLIMATE CHANGE, PARTICULATES
AND CO.
Edie weekly summaries
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://www.edie.net/gf.cfm?L=left_frame.html&R=http://www.edie.net/news/Archive/6459.cfm
There was something in the air in 2002, and in some countries it was largely
pollution. In the US, half the countrys population breathed in polluted
air, whilst brown haze over Asia was in danger of causing dramatic climactic
changes. Good news included Chinas success at cutting methane emissions,
and the fact that carbon dioxide could be stored underground for millions of
years. The year started with news in January that companies in the
Australian state of New South Wales would be fined for failing to cut their
greenhouse gas emissions. However, in the US, the Government fixed the
countrys vehicle fuel efficiency levels for a further two years, despite
being at a 20-year low.
Global warming could threaten the future of the Winter Olympics, it was
revealed in February, a scenario that could have been brought forward by US
President George W Bushs new plan to tackle climate change that involved
reducing only greenhouse gas intensity. The good news from the US,
however, was that polluters had paid over US$4 billion for control and
cleanup in 200, and the countrys air quality had improved dramatically over
the last 30 years. The following month, in March, air pollutions effect on
health was hitting the headlines. Healthy blood vessels were constricting,
particulates were increasing the risk of lung cancer, as had weapons testing
in the 1950s. The new danger, however, was climate change, threatening to
increase respiratory illnesses. The good news was that greenhouse gas
markets across the globe were opening up. In April, lakes were found to emit
carbon dioxide, and tropical rainforests might not be the carbon sponges
they have been presumed to be. The following month a group of researchers
from Wisconsin, US, agreed, saying that the Amazon could actually be a
carbon source. The Chinese decided to promote electric vehicles, and a US
utility decided to relocate an entire town, rather than clean up its own air
pollution.
In May, New Zealand proposed an unpopular carbon tax, and Hong Kong vowed to
clean up its air pollution. In the US, it was revealed that half of the
countrys populace breaths unhealthy air. Further prosperity would be
postponed only two years under the Kyoto regime, it emerged in June, whilst
ozone recovery could be hampered by the effects of climate change, according
to NASA. The Japanese launched equipment that they claimed could reduce
carbon dioxide emissions by 90%, and in order to make up for their own
greenhouse gas emissions, New York trucking companies planted trees.
Bicycles were big news in July, as they appeared to be emerging as the
transport vehicle of the future, more popular than the car. Meanwhile, the
Australian prime minister noted that although he was concerned about climate
change, he would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol as it would not be good for
Australian jobs. In the US, however, voters were found to be critical of
their own premiers similar stance, revealing that they believed a lack of
action on global warming to be irresponsible and short-sighted. Californians
were more proactive, bringing in a bill to cut exhaust emissions from cars
and trucks.
August saw two US government banks being sued by environmentalists for their
lending impact on climate change, whilst it was revealed that marine
habitats were at risk from the associated increasing temperatures, rising
sea levels and changes in circulation patterns. Asian brown haze made its
annual appearance raising the fear that it could cause a climate crisis.
Sixty-four of the worlds poorest nations benefited from a US$100 million
donation from the Kyoto fund to finance clean energy in September. It was
revealed that Carbon dioxide could be stored underground for millions of
years, which was fortunate in the light of the news that carbon dioxide
emissions could rise 70%, rather than fall by 5.2% by 2012 hoped for under
the Kyoto Protocol. In California, meanwhile, it was revealed that the
states children exceed their lifetime pollution limits after only 12 days.
In October, there was good news that six developing nations had made
considerable progress on cutting their greenhouse gas emissions, although it
was also revealed that diesel engines may have a greater effect on climate
change than those powered by, due to the effect of particulates. A US study
called for methane emissions to be tackled globally because of the gas
effect on the climate. Australians if they wished to could cut their
greenhouse has emissions by 60%, it emerged in November, although a group of
London-based economists claimed that the Kyoto Protocol would fail to
prevent climate change.
Meanwhile in the US, it emerged that states were taking on climate change
mitigation despite their presidents aversion to such action, and an air
pollution trading scheme intended to reduce emissions of sulphur dioxide
appeared to be working. The bad news was that the microchip has a
disproportionately large effect on the environment. A two-gram chip requires
3.7 pounds of fossil fuel energy and chemical inputs, said researchers from
the UN University in Tokyo.
In December, evidence emerged that the dreadful accident in Bhopal, India,
18 years ago that killed at least 8,000 people and injured 150,000, could
have been the result of corner-cutting by Union Carbide. The suing by
environmental groups of US government organisations over their impact on
climate change continued, with the EPA becoming the latest victim, but in
China it was revealed that rice farmers had cut their methane emissions by
40% in 20 years, and New Zealand and Canada ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
Finally, US researchers found that if you want to know the levels of
pollutants in the air, analyse lichens.
16) AIR POLLUTION IN REVIEW FOR 2002, A YEAR FOR TACKLING TRANSPORT
EMISSIONS
Edie weekly summaries
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://www.edie.net/gf.cfm?L=left_frame.html&R=http://www.edie.net/news/Archive/6464.cfm
Air pollution issues over the last 12 months have centred around traffic,
with good news for alternative technology, but increasing criticism of air
travel. However, if youre heading abroad for some winter sun, you could do
worse than buy a tree to soak up your carbon dioxide emissions. The year
began well, with new UK air quality statistics showing a gradual overall
improvement in urban areas since 1993, although the trend in rural areas was
less clear. The 2001 air quality figures from the Office of National
Statistics showed that during 2001 there was an average of 21 days in which
air pollution was moderate or higher. February was the month for alternative
vehicle fuels, with BP launching its sulphur-free petrol the City of Hull
decided to use a new 5% biofuel-diesel mix, and the Cardiff announced that
it was going to use green driverless taxis. To drive it all home, the
Governments Chief Scientific Advisor called for the sale of fossil fuels
for use in vehicles to be banned. On the corporate side, 46 companies
signed up for the UKs new nationwide emissions trading scheme the worlds
first, whilst the country as a whole was on track to miss its greenhouse gas
emission targets.
In March, environmental group Friends of the Earth made it known that
factories across the country has reduced their emissions of cancer-causing
pollutants. On 7 March, Secretary of State for the Environment, Margaret
Beckett announced that the UK would be ratifying the Kyoto Protocol on
emissions of greenhouse gases as soon as possible, committing to cut
emissions by 12.5% by 2008-2012. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Browns
budget in April was good news for the countrys least polluting vehicles,
with cuts in road tax and 100% enhanced capital allowance for company cars.
The National Society for Clean Air called on the Government to support clean
technology, and for good reason, as carbon dioxide emissions were found to
have increased for the second year running. Fortunately, other greenhouse
gas emissions in the UK continued to decline. Climate change continued to be
an important issue in May, following a warning that its impacts would be
sharper and will occur sooner than previously predicted. The Government was
also advised that it was missing opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by failing to produce a common label for products that contribute
to climate change.
In June, a scientist announced that he was investigating ways of mitigating
the impact of air pollution from motorways. Fortunately, the general
travelling public were also doing their bit with the news that railway use
was growing at a faster rate than car use. The question was, is the Climate
Change Levy effective? According to London Electricity, despite all the
criticism its a valid method of motivating business to improve its energy
efficiency. In July, airline passengers were offered the opportunity to buy
trees in order to offset the carbon dioxide emitted by their flight. There
were also calls for car drivers to pay more for their emissions, with a
suggestion for pay-as-you-go motor insurance, and Environment Secretary
Margaret Beckett launched the ALTER project, promoting lower emissions from
vehicles in towns and cities. Airlines were also the focus of attention in
August, when the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) called on them
to pay for their environmental pollution. The Government announced that it
would raise targets for carbon monoxide, benzene, particulates and
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. In Brighton, a group of 16 companies
decided to balance their carbon emissions. September saw the launch of an
environmentally friendly boat engine, with no oil, propeller, and little
noise. The ministers in the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs underwent a portfolio reshuffle, and the Department of Trade and
Industry announced that it would investigate the practicality of storing
carbon dioxide underground.
In October, the IPPR reared its head again, calling this time for the
closure of fossil fuel power stations in order to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. Research also revealed that a phenomenon called singing can
damage clean combustors, and a scientist at the University of Edinburgh
counted the costs and savings of climate change. A Londoner can save up
to £80,000 in his lifetime by cutting emissions, if he puts his mind to it.
November - a busy month - saw a new professional body for air quality, a 5%
drop in the Governments greenhouse gas emissions and a disappointing
pre-budget statement from the Chancellor. As the UKs carbon dioxide
emissions rose, a group of scientists called for the Climate Change Levy to
be scrapped. But Newcastle came to the rescue by announcing that it was to
be the first city in the world to go carbon neutral, and a bright spark
suggested giving cars eco-labels. Airlines came under attack yet again in
December for their greenhouse gas emissions, this time from the Royal
Commission on Environmental Pollution, and Transport Secretary Alistair
Darling admitted that the Governments transport policy is failing.
17) ENERGY REVIEW FOR 2002: WIND ENERGY THRIVES, BUT KYOTO COULD PUSH PRICES
UP
Edie weekly summaries
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://www.edie.net/gf.cfm?L=left_frame.html&R=http://www.edie.net/news/Archive/6447.cfm
The past year saw wind power continuing to grow across Europe, with wind
farms planned off the coasts of Ireland and Sweden, and Germany predicted to
become a world leader in wind energy. The EU launched an intelligent
energy programme to boost the renewables market and increase energy
efficiency, while a spate of reports argued the real costs of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. Ireland launched 2002 with the go-ahead
for a new 643 million wind farm, the largest offshore wind farm to be built
in the world. And in February the Irish government announced the approval of
a 363MW green energy generating plant to provide electricity for up to
250,000 homes. A separate report showed that 2001 was another record year
for European wind power, with an additional 4,500MW of wind power capacity
raising Europes total to 17,000MW. March released a report predicting
renewable energy in Europe will reach 109GW by 2010, while in April the
European Commission launched a new 215 energy programme focusing on
renewables and energy saving.
The month of April also saw arguments over the costs of meeting Kyoto
emissions targets emerge in two contradictory studies, while a German study
on wind power suggested the country would become a world leader in wind
energy. A European conference warned that more research was needed to reduce
the costs of wind power. May revealed EU power prices would have to rise by
up to 13% to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets, while in June EU
ministers agreed to back a Commission proposal to boost energy efficiency in
European buildings by setting up a standard system for maximising energy
efficiency. The World Wildlife Fund also launched a European green energy
standard.
In July a US group warned that implementing the Kyoto protocol could damage
the EU economy, while a Nordic fund donated 10 million to the Baltic Sea
Region to become a testing ground for Kyoto mechanisms to reduce carbon
dioxide emissions. Ventilation was the subject of an August report
suggesting Europe could save 2.6 billion and 20% in energy by increasing
the efficiency of air conditioning systems in offices and businesses. In
September a Danish report criticised the doomsday prophecies of the World
Wildlife Fund following its calculation of the populations ecological
footprint. The Basque government announced in October that Spanish
classrooms would soon be basking in the warm glow of the sun from solar
panels mounted on roofs and classroom walls to promote solar power to the
next generation.
November saw the European commissions proposals for directives on nuclear
safety and nuclear waste management, while a pressure group warned that
setting up new nuclear power stations in the UK could cost the public £1
billion. Elsewhere, a Swedish crematorium offered to pump excess heat from
its furnace into the citys central heating system. The year ended with the
launch of a website to stimulate public debate on the future of energy and a
warning that EU countries would miss greenhouse gas reduction targets if
they continued to pursue inadequate policies on cutting emissions.
18) CAR IMPORTS TO DISPLAY GREEN CREDENTIALS
Swissinfo
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=111&sid=1349017
Car buyers will have less trouble identifying gas-guzzlers when buying a new
vehicle (Keystone Archive)Fuel consumption labels are to be slapped on all
new car imports from January 2003 to encourage Swiss consumers to avoid
gas-guzzlers. The colourful labels, coded A to G, are similar to those
already seen on electrical appliances, and will help emphasise cars that use
less fuel. The A category will be awarded to smaller, urban-friendly cars,
whereas the other end of the scale will be used to identify less
environmentally sound models. The new classification for car imports is to
be included in showroom brochures and price lists.
The initiative is part of an agreement signed last year by the Swiss car
importers association, Auto Schweiz, and the government-run SwissEnergy
programme.According to Hans Luzius Schmid, deputy head of the Swiss Federal
Energy Office, the new project is designed to help consumers play a role in
reducing Swiss fuel consumption. During the 1990s, consumption increased by
between eight and nine per cent. The average motor fuel consumption of new
cars sold in Switzerland will have to be reduced from 8.4 litres to 6.4
litres per 100 kilometres by the year 2008, said Schmid. Schmid added that
the labels could aid the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles
by eight per cent by 2008. This would be in keeping with Switzerlands
energy targets based on the Kyoto Protocol, he said. A recent Austrian study
found that fuel consumption levels could be brought down by up to four per
cent annually with the help of the labels.
However, Rudolf Blessing of Auto Schweiz says that while there is optimism
about the new car stickers, they may not necessarily curb the sales of cars
with high fuel consumption. The government thinks it will have an effect of
about 4.5 per cent on fuel consumption, said Blessing. Our organisation is
not sure it will reach this figure but we hope so, because we have an
agreement with the government to reduce fuel consumption by two litres
between 2000 and 2008. Blessing adds that the use of greater quantities of
gasoline by larger G-grade cars actually poses a greater risk for the
environment than emissions from smaller diesel-fuelled A-type vehicles. The
European Union issued a directive two years ago demanding that cars carry
fuel consumption labels but countries have failed to act. Last week the
government announced plans to impose a new tax on sulphur-rich petrol and
diesel. The environment ministry said the aim of the levy of SFr0.05 ($0.03)
per litre was to limit consumption of sulphur-rich fuel and reduce the
emission of greenhouse gases. The tax will come into effect in 2004, if it
receives parliamentary approval.
19) ANTARCTICA'S ICE SHEET MELTING NATURALLY
BBC
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2624603.stm
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has been melting naturally and releasing
water to the ocean for the last 10,000 years. Research published in the
journal Science suggests that the last Ice Age never really came to end in
that part of the world. If the melting continues at its current rate then
the WAIS could disappear in 7,000 years, possibly raising worldwide sea
levels by five metres. However scientists warn that a sudden rapid melting
of the WAIS could cause serious problems for some coastal regions.
ROCK CLIMBING
Geologists measured the chemical composition of rocks collected on seven
mountains in the Ford Ranges near the Ross Sea. Some of the peaks are
almost a mile high (1.6 kilometres), but were completely covered in ice
10,000 years ago. But as the ice began to melt away and the glaciers
retreated, rocks where left behind on the freshly uncovered mountains. The
rocks were exposed to cosmic rays from deep space and so their chemical
make-up changed. By looking at the composition of the rocks the geologists
could calculate how old they were and therefore when the ice melted.
ICE AGE
Professor John Stone from the University of Washington led the teams behind
the work. He said: "In all cases we got very tight, consistent correlations
of age with altitude, so we are able to track the margins of the ice sheet
coming down the mountain sides with this approach." The most surprising
finding though is how recently the ice has thinned in West Antarctica. Ice
sheets in North America and Europe had nearly all melted 10,000 years ago,
but this process had only just started in West Antarctica at that time.
"The Ice Age never really came to an end in that part of the world"
Professor Stone said. The WAIS, which covers an area of 360,000 square
miles (580,000 km), is currently melting at a slow and steady rate and if
this continues it will disappear in another 7,000 years. Professor Stone
says this would raise the global sea levels by about five metres. But he
warns: "A rapid melting event that released even a small fraction of this
amount could have disastrous consequences for coastal regions." The
scientists stress this melting of the WAIS is a natural process but they
cannot rule out that global warming may now be playing a part. As much of
the ice sheet is below water the WAIS could be very sensitive to the warming
of the oceans.
20) BRITAIN URGES MOTORISTS TO CHANGE TO CHEAPER GAS
Planet Ark
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/19269/story.htm
LONDON - British Energy Minister Brian Wilson urged motorists yesterday to
convert their vehicles to use liquefied petroleum gas as a cheaper and
cleaner alternative to petrol, particularly as prices rise across Europe.
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is an option which has already removed
thousands of motorists from uncertainty about pump prices. I hope many more
motorists will consider it," Wilson said in a statement. Drivers are facing
higher petrol prices at the start of 2003 amid increased tension over a
possible U.S.-led war against Iraq and a crippling month-long strike in key
oil producer Venezuela. Supermarket retailer Safeway (STW.L) lifted its
petrol pump prices by two pence on January 1. Other retailers have already
done so or are set to follow.
British motorists suffer from some of the highest petrol prices in the
world, with an average of 75.5 pence ($1.22) a litre. Government taxes make
up around 80 percent of the total. "LPG is half the price of petrol. It
emits fewer greenhouse gases and is therefore one of the most
environmentally friendly options currently available," Wilson said. While
making millions from taxing petrol, Britain is providing incentives for
cleaner fuels as part of its commitment to reducing greenhouse gases -
blamed for global warming - under the U.N. Kyoto Protocol. LPG produces
around 12 percent less carbon dioxide than petrol, and fewer harmful
particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions than diesel. The government
recently provided one million pounds ($1.61 million) to help train garage
mechanics to convert engines to LPG and covers half of the 1,700 pound
($2,741) conversion cost. It has frozen duty on LPG after reducing it 40
percent in 2001. LPG vehicles will also be exempt from a congestion charge
for drivers entering central London from mid-February. The government hopes
to increase use of LPG vehicles in Britain to 250,000 by 2005 from only
around 65,000 in 2002, even though few fuel stations currently sell the gas.
More than five million drivers use LPG worldwide.
21) COMPANY TO BEGIN LEASING STATIONARY FUEL CELLS IN JAPAN
Fuel Cell Today
January 3, 2003
Internet:
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/FuelCellToday/IndustryInformation/IndustryInformationExternal/NewsDisplayArticle/0,1471,2312,00.html
According to reports in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japanese company First
Energy Service Co. will begin leasing eco-friendly fuel-cell
power-generation systems for plants and offices in January 2003. The new
service will install co-generation systems using high temperature fuel cells
at plants and buildings. The systems will emit little in the way of carbon
dioxides or nitrogen oxides, and can be fueled by methane gas discharged
from breweries or sewage disposal plants, or by natural gas.
First Energy will be responsible for the purchase of units from fuel cell
developers, and for installing them at plants or other buildings, procuring
natural gas or other fuels and maintaining and repairing systems for
customers. The service will allow corporations wanting to install fuel-cell
systems to save on initial capital costs. Customers will instead pay First
Energy for the electricity generated by leased units, which is not expected
to be more expensive than electricty from the grid.
First Energy was set up in 1997 by Japan Research Institute and twenty other
companies, including Iwatani International Corp., Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy
Industries Co., Ebara Corp., Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd., Electric Power
Development Co. and Yokogawa Electric Corp. Capitalised at 400 million yen
(US$3.3 million), First Energy expects to generate around 2 billion yen in
sales (almost US$17 million) by March 2004. Over the next two or three years
it expects to win around 20-30 leasing contracts. Japanese manufacturers
are under increasing pressure to reduce CO2 emissions, not only from the
Kyoto Protocol, but also from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, which is
planning to mandate large businesses to slash CO2 emissions.
22) HOLD THE COAL, SAY CONSUMERS, AND PASS THE WIND
Sydney Morning Herald
January 2, 2003
Internet:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/01/01/1041196690690.html
Propeller power ... a queue is forming for greener energy sources. People
are so keen to buy environmentally friendly power that electricity suppliers
have been forced to buy more from sources such as wind farms and
hydro-electric schemes. A growing number of households are choosing to pay
more for green power, but many have had to wait because retailers
underestimated the demand. Across Australia, 62,000 households are seeking
the cleaner alternative, according to the latest audit of the nationwide
Greenpower scheme. Biomass and hydro-electric generators provided most of
this power, while solar systems and wind turbines accounted for just over 10
per cent. Energy suppliers cannot stop coal-generated electricity reaching
customers, but they can guarantee that the amount of power taken is replaced
by cleanly produced electricity. Energy Australia's Pure Energy scheme,
which can offer customers either half or all of their power from clean
sources, has more than 11,000 domestic customers and more waiting.
A spokesman said that although demand had been outstripping supply for some
months, Energy Australia had recently bought more power from renewable
sources. Integral Energy has just begun to offer green options to domestic
customers, and will give them the choice of what type of power they want.
Demand for clean power is expected to continue rising under the NSW
Government's greenhouse gas-reduction law, which came into effect
yesterday. It compels power companies to reduce their emissions by 5 per
cent on a per capita basis by 2007, compared with 1989-90 levels. As well,
the lower emissions must be maintained beyond 2007 for a further five years.
It is estimated this will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in NSW by 15 per
cent. The Premier, Bob Carr, said the law cemented "NSW's position as the
greenest state in the country and a world leader in this area". "Global
warming is one of the most pressing environmental issues facing the world
and this program is aimed directly at one of the most greenhouse gas
intensive industries - energy generation," he said. A meeting between state
and territory leaders early this year will explore greenhouse gas reduction
targets so that Australia can reach the national target set by the Kyoto
protocol. However, Australia is expected to miss its target by 3 per cent
and the Federal Government believes it is not in the country's interest to
ratify the protocol.
23) CALIFORNIA EMISSION STANDARDS SHOULD BE MODERATED, CHRYSLER SAYS
AP
January 2, 2002
Internet:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030103/ap_wo_en_po/na_fin_us_la_auto_show_2
LOS ANGELES - Chrysler Group President Dieter Zetsche called the California
market both important and problematic for U.S. auto makers looking to
increase market share while meeting stringent environmental demands.
Chrysler wants to increase its market share in the state from 8 percent to
9.5 percent by 2004, but also wants to work with state regulators to
moderate mandates for zero-emission vehicles, Zetsche said Thursday. "We
want to work together with the state of California to find common ground,"
Zetsche told journalists at the opening of the Greater Los Angeles Auto
Show.
Chrysler will produce its first hybrid pickup truck later this year. But
Zetsche said that hybrid technology, which combines a gasoline-powered
engine and an electric motor, is not a viable long-term technological or
commercial alternative. "Hybrids have yet to prove they make business
sense," he said. Both Toyota and Honda already sell hybrid cars: Toyota
alone has sold more than 120,000 since it introduced its first, the Prius,
in 2000. California has mandated that an increasing number of new cars and
trucks sold in the state emit no pollution. The mandate was to have taken
effect this year, but auto manufacturers won a preliminary injunction in
June 2002 that delays implementation until 2005. Meanwhile, the California
Air Resources Board will review the 13-year-old zero-emissions vehicle
mandate at its Feb. 26 meeting, spokeswoman Gennet Paauwe said. The proposed
changes will be made public Jan. 10, she said.
Earlier Thursday, Zetsche said Chrysler intends to have a hybrid car
available by 2007, when rival General Motors has said it intends to begin
making a hybrid car.
But Zetsche said that clean-burning diesel fuel is the best short-term
alternative while waiting for fuel cell technology using hydrogen and
oxygen to generate power to be perfected. "Diesel has the potential of
powering vehicles people will demand," he said. Dan Becker, director of the
Sierra Club global warming and energy program, scoffed at that idea in an
interview. "If Zetsche thinks the way of the future is 19th century diesel
technology instead of 21st century hybrid technology, his company will go
further down," Becker said. Chrysler announced in November it would test
market a diesel-powered Jeep Liberty sport utility vehicle in North America
starting in 2004.
Zetsche said it is a mistake to think that auto makers have technology
readily available to both reduce emissions and power cars with the styling
and features consumers demand. "Fuel cell vehicles are not yet commercially
viable and electric vehicles may never be," he said. He said his fear is
that auto makers may be stymied if states adopt individual emissions
standards. California remains the single largest market for auto makers,
yet domestic car makers sell less here than their foreign competitors.
Imports command 58 percent of the market in California, Zetsche said. To
increase market share in the state, Zetsche said Chrysler recently appointed
an advertising team exclusively for California. Half of all advertising
dollars will be spent to attract Hispanic buyers, he said.
Zetsche also announced that a U.S. plant to produce a new four-cylinder
gasoline engine as part of a joint venture between DaimlerChrysler AG,
Hyundai Motor Co. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (news - web sites) will be
jointly managed by the three companies. The companies agreed in December to
jointly manage the U.S. plant, Zetsche said. The companies will announce
the location of the plant within the next three months, Zetsche said. He
declined to say how many people will be employed at the highly automated
plant.
"It won't be a huge number," he said. The U.S. plant, which will be
completed in 2005, is one of three to be built by the companies. The others
will be in South Korea (news - web sites) and Japan. Until Thursday's
announcement it had been expected that each partner would individually
manage one plant. Hyundai is expected to start producing engines at the
South Korean plant in 2004, with Mitsubishi and Chrysler starting the
following year. About 40 percent of the 1.5 million aluminum engines
expected to be produced at the three plants will be produced in the United
States, although all three companies will own an equal share of the joint
venture, he said. The joint venture was announced in May.
24) ARGUMENTS HEAT UP OVER WATER, DAMS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
World Rivers Review
January 2003
Internet: www.irn.org
Dams are moving into the forefront of the climate change debate for two
reasons: because existing dams are likely to be badly affected by climate
change, and because dam developers are trying to get subsidies from
mechanisms devised to mitigate the impacts of climate pollution.
Hydrological changes are expected to be some of the most serious
consequences of global warming, causing increased flooding and droughts. One
result will be a reduction in the ability of dams to provide services such
as hydropower and water supply. Serious floods and droughts affecting many
parts of the world in recent years, and rapidly melting glaciers in the
world's mountainous regions, give a taste of things to come.
The dam industry has been working hard to ensure that large hydro projects
gain from the emergent trade in "carbon credits" that is being established
under the Kyoto Protocol (while neglecting to mention the hydrological
impacts of climate change in any feasibility studies for dams, or that dam
reservoirs themselves can emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases). IRN
and the Bali-based NGO CDM Watch released a report at the latest round of UN
climate negotiations, held in Delhi in October, which reveals that the
large-hydro industry could be one of the biggest winners from the carbon
trading mechanisms of the UN's Kyoto Protocol. The report shows that efforts
to reduce climate pollution will suffer as a result. The new report,
"Damming the CDM," shows that big hydro threatens to undermine the Kyoto
Protocol by providing carbon-reduction credits for projects that do not
actually reduce emissions. Thus far, large dams make up the lion's share of
the efforts to reduce climate pollution through carbon trading.
POOR MOST VULNERABLE
The Delhi meeting showed a growing realization at governmental levels that
intensified floods and drought are now inevitable and that the poor in
developing countries are most vulnerable to them, while being the least
responsible for greenhouse pollution. Severe droughts are currently causing
economic hardship - and in some cases starvation - across Sub-Saharan
Africa, India, Southeast Asia, North America and Australia. In Africa,
drought is exacerbating the shocks to the continent's food production and
distribution systems caused by collapsing economies, political and ethnic
violence, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. James Morris, executive director of the
UN World Food Program (WFP), told the UN Security Council in December that
Africa is facing an "immense hunger crisis" with some 40 million people at
risk of starvation. While the drought in southern Africa has received most
attention in recent months, concern is now growing over drought in Ethiopia,
Eritrea and the Sudan. Crops are down 80%, Morris notes.
Much of central and northern India is suffering its fourth consecutive year
of drought. Some areas of India received as little as a tenth of average
rainfall during the crucial June-September monsoon. In November the WFP told
the media that "startling weather patterns have sabotaged the Cambodian rice
crop" for the past three years with cycles of exceptional floods and
droughts, and that 670,000 Cambodians need food aid. While none are
starving, farmers in Australia and the US are also suffering serious
drought-induced losses. The Australian government recently said that much of
New South Wales is facing its worst drought in a century. Almost the entire
western half of the US, as well as large parts of the midwest, southeast and
far northeast, have been officially classified as drought-affected in the
past year. All or part of 14 western states are suffering "severe,"
"extreme" or "exceptional" drought.
DEADLY FLOODS
The summer of 2002 will be remembered in central Europe for what is being
termed "the flood of the millennium." Direct damage in Germany alone is set
at around US$9 billion. Nearly a fifth of all farmland in the Czech Republic
is reported to have been flooded. Millions living in northeast India and
eastern Nepal were also affected by floods in 2002. The reasons why flood
damage is increasing around the world are
complex and include factors such as land degradation, bad urban planning,
and ironically, the counterproductive results of building dams and
embankments for flood control. However, increasingly intense rainfall is
also without doubt a major culprit.
While it is not possible to say that any particular extreme weather event
would not have occurred in the absence of greenhouse gas pollution, the
pattern of increasingly severe hydrological disruptions is consistent with
climate change science. And as the earth's atmospheric composition and
temperature has already been substantially changed by greenhouse gases -
with an increase of around 0.6 degrees centigrade since 1860 - it is
reasonable to say that all weather we are now experiencing, extreme or not,
is in some way influenced by global warming. Reduced precipitation coupled
with rising temperatures are causing an alarmingly rapid shrinkage of
glaciers around the world, and especially in the tropics. Ice fields
covering the peak of Kenya's iconic Mount Kilimanjaro have shrunk by 80%
since it was first mapped in 1912. Unless the rate of shrinkage slows, the
snows of Kilimanjaro will be gone within two decades.
The New York Times reported in November that the mass of glaciers and
snowcaps in the Bolivian Andes has shrunk by 60% since 1978, and those in
Venezuela are "nearly extinct." In many parts of the world, glaciers and
snow pack act as water towers, storing winter precipitation and releasing it
gradually through the summer melt. The Times points out that the
disappearance of Andean glaciers "could lead to water shortages in places
like Bolivia and Peru that depend on glaciers and the rain and snow that
fall on the mountains for water for drinking, irrigating fields and
generating electricity."
IMPACTS ON HYDROPOWER
Models of the impacts of climate change on the west coast of the US and
Canada also predict serious reductions in water supplies due to shrinking
snow packs. A recent study sponsored by the US Department of Energy (based
on one of the most conservative climate models) predicts that even if total
precipitation remained the same, warmer temperatures would mean that the
snow pack in the Pacific Northwest
could be halved by 2050. This would reduce the spring flow of the Columbia
river by 20%, with major implications for hydropower, irrigation and water
supply.
As a general rule, a decrease in run-off produces a greater decrease in
hydropower production. Not only is there less water to go through the
turbines, but lower reservoir levels reduce water pressure and, thus, the
amount of energy in the falling water. According the US Environment
Protection Agency, a 10% decrease in runoff in the lower Colorado River (in
the US Southwest) would reduce power production by
36%. The New York Times reported on December 9 that drought in 2002 had
reduced US hydro production by nearly one-quarter. A reduction in hydropower
generation due to drought in the Pacific Northwest was one of the reasons
behind California's "energy crisis" of 2000 (along with market manipulation
by power companies). Drought also forced blackouts and energy rationing in
heavily hydro-dependent Brazil in 2000-01. Other countries that have
suffered serious drought-induced power reductions in recent years include
Albania, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Iraq,
Kenya, Mexico, Peru, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Zambia and
Zimbabwe.
Norway is one country where energy planners are actually hoping to benefit
from climate change. Norway generates almost all of its electricity from
hydropower, and climate models predict that the country will get wetter. Yet
the Norwegian energy sector is now experiencing the consequences of one of
the few certainties about global warming - that it makes things more
uncertain. Norway is now suffering a drought that has cut reservoir levels
to 20% below normal. In early December Norway's energy minister announced
that he could not rule out energy rationing this winter. Countries and
regions that are heavily dependent on hydropower are especially vulnerable
to global warming - at the same time as droughts reduce their agricultural
production, they would also face cutbacks in industrial and other areas of
their economy due to energy shortages.
MITIGATION MADNESS
The need for all countries to take measures to reduce their vulnerability to
climate change was one of the main issues discussed at the October UN
climate conference. The "Delhi Declaration," adopted at the end of the
meeting, notes that "Developing countries are particularly vulnerable,
especially the least developed countries and small island developing
States." While "adaptation" to a changed climate was a hot issue at the
Delhi summit there was also a widespread recognition - with the notable
exceptions of the US, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC states - of the need for
more actions on climate "mitigation," in other words reducing climate
pollution. By the rules of the Kyoto Protocol, at least 55 countries
representing 55% of total carbon dioxide emissions must ratify the treaty in
order for it to become legally binding on the signatories. Despite the
withdrawal of the US, this threshold would be passed with ratification by
Russia, whose signature is expected sometime in 2003. The impending
enforcement of the Protocol focused the attention of conference delegates on
the workings of the Protocol's carbon-trading mechanisms. These mechanisms
are supposed to cut the costs for developed countries of meeting their
emission-reduction targets under the Protocol.
The report "Damming the CDM," analyzes the use of hydropower projects in the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is a Kyoto Protocol effort which
promotes carbon-reducing projects in developing countries. Developed
countries subsidize these projects by purchasing carbon credits from them.
The credits allow buyers to reduce by an equivalent amount of carbon the
emission cuts they have to make domestically. The report shows that big
hydro threatens the effectiveness and credibility of the CDM, and will
provide carbon-reduction credits for projects that do not actually reduce
emissions. Of the 30 projects so far proposed for credits, seven are large
hydropower schemes. These large hydros make up nearly 40% of the potential
emission reduction credits. New renewable projects, by comparison, make up
only 20% of the claimed credits.
Most of these large hydro projects are already under construction or were
already planned to have been built regardless of receiving carbon credits.
They are thus "non-additional" in the jargon of carbon traders, meaning that
they would go ahead without the CDM. The main result of buying these carbon
credits would not be to achieve economically efficient climate benefits. It
would instead be to increase the return to the project developers - mainly
subsidiaries of large US energy corporations. And because the projects would
have happened anyway, developing countries would receive no additional
investment benefit. "Giving these projects approval to generate carbon
credits would turn the CDM into a subsidy mechanism for hydro developers and
a carbon accounting loophole for industrialized countries, instead of a tool
for climate protection," says Ben Pearson from CDM Watch. The social and
environmental damage that will be caused by some of these projects also
means that they are in breach of the CDM's mandate to promote sustainable
development. In particular, the possibility that the Dutch government may
source credits from the controversial Bujagali Dam in Uganda would totally
undermine the credibility of the CDM as a driver for sustainable
development.
25) TSE TO CREATE MARKET FOR GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS TRADING
Japan Today
January 1, 2003
Internet
http://www.japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=3&id=244551
TOKYO The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) plans to set up a market for trading
in greenhouse-gas emission credits under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on cutting
such emissions, TSE sources said Tuesday. The Tokyo bourse is scheduled to
consult with entities concerned, such as the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry and the Environment Ministry, in a bid to create the market by
around 2005, the sources said. (Kyodo News)
26) STUDY EMPLOYS BACKYARD SCIENTISTS TO DOCUMENT GLOBAL WARMING IMPACT
Michigan State University
January 1, 2003
Internet:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2003-01/msu-seb122002.php
EAST LANSING, Mich. The flora and fauna are sending signals about the
impact of global warming a message that is being heard in backyards around
the world. A study in the Jan. 2 edition of the British science journal
Nature synthesized data from 143 scientific papers to examine whether a
signal, or "fingerprint," of climate change can be found in how animals and
plants have reacted to increasing temperatures. Among their findings: In
the temperate zone, the researchers estimate that, for species that have
shown a change in timing, spring events are shifting about five days earlier
every ten years.
One team member, fisheries and wildlife postdoctoral researcher Kimberly
Hall at Michigan State University, helped wrangle data that comes not only
from scientific outposts, but from the backyard recordings and personal
journals of people across the world. The impact of global warming often
appears as an early arrival of spring and is seen at bird feeders, heard in
the earlier croaking of frogs and sniffed in the first waft of lilacs.
"Local weather is extremely variable from year to year, and animals and
plants respond to many other factors besides temperature," Hall said. "To be
able to detect impacts of climate warming, we have to have data sets that
cover long periods, so trends can emerge from all of the noise."
The challenge: The average lifespan of a research grant is about three
years. Few researchers focused on climate change 10 or 20 years ago, so many
of the most convincing papers documenting long-term responses of wild plants
and animals come from nonprofessional observers that were recording data as
a hobby.
"The studies we reviewed often obtained data from persistent individuals,
people who were curious about the wildlife around them and wrote down what
they saw," she said. "Often the analyses that you can do with these types of
data are pretty crude, but when they are combined with information from many
other locations around the world, they paint a very telling picture."
Hall worked with Terry Root and Stephen Schneider at Stanford University, as
well as Jeff Price at the American Bird Conservancy, Cynthia Rosenzweig with
NASA and Alan Pounds in Costa Rica. Her job included searching literature
from around the globe to find research papers to include in the study.
The project began as an effort to compile information for a recent
international study, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third
Assessment report. The group reviewed more than 2,000 papers, then focused
on a small subset that met the criteria for this additional study. "The
papers using individual's observations were inspiring," Hall said. "They
show how much can be gained from being a patient observer, and that great
data sets are probably all around us, hidden in desk drawers and just
waiting for someone to look at them through the lens of climate change."
The regular recordings of the ecologically curious, when joined with data
from researchers around the world and analyzed, show that animals of all
kinds, as well as plants, appear to be shifting behaviors, seasonal timing
and locations in response to a 0.6°C increase in the average global
temperature in the last 100 years.
The most dramatic impacts, the study notes, are seen in the higher
latitudes, which have warmed more than the lower latitudes in the past
half-century. "The majority of these changes bear the fingerprint of one
factor increasing temperature," Hall said. "When you put all these
observations, all these notes from individuals, together, they suggest a
strong unified signal of climate change from across the globe." Hall said
the study's significance lies in its foreboding. Global warming is projected
to increase dramatically in coming years. While spring arriving early seems
in itself innocuous, Hall said no one knows right now how these changes will
affect the complex orchestration of the environment. "If temperatures are
changing and wildlife are reacting to it, but other resources, such as food
supplies, or the types of habitats that are protected, are not changing at
the same rate, it could be trouble for many species," Hall said.
See Also:
Life on Earth Is Feeling the Heat, January 02, 2003
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa003&articleID=0006C928-E1D8-1E11-8B3B809EC588EEDF
27) TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO GO FROM WARM TO WARMER
New York Times
December 31, 2002
Internet:
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/31/science/earth/31WARM.html?ex=1042347600&en=89dedf146bf7347e&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
Climate experts say global temperatures in 2003 could match or beat the
modern record set in 1998, when temperatures were raised sharply by El Niño,
a periodic disturbance of Pacific Ocean currents that warms the atmosphere.
El Niño that year was the strongest ever measured. A new one is brewing in
the Pacific but is expected to remain relatively weak, experts say. Still,
they say, a persistent underlying warming trend could be enough to push
temperatures to record highs.Some of the warming could be the result of
natural climate variation, but the experts say it is almost impossible to
explain without including the heat-trapping properties of rising levels of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted by smokestacks and
tailpipes. The mounting evidence of human contributions to climate warming
has raised pressure on American policy makers to reconsider their reliance
on voluntary measures for reducing heat-trapping emissions.
At a meeting of climate scientists organized by the Bush administration this
month, White House officials said President Bush was no longer locked into
the stance he announced last year calling for nothing beyond voluntary
measures to slow the growth in emissions until 2012. And Senator John
McCain, Republican of Arizona, and Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, Democrat of
Connecticut, plan to introduce legislation early in 2003 that would
gradually establish mandatory greenhouse gas restrictions and a system in
which companies could trade credits they would earn by making emissions
cuts. The European Union, Japan and most other industrial powers have
ratified the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty that, once in effect, will require
them to make reductions. The growing shift toward action in the American
debate over greenhouse emissions comes after a decade of mounting evidence
that the recent warming is caused mainly by rising concentrations of such
substances. The main means of tracking climate change has been to synthesize
hundreds of measurements of surface temperatures around the world into a
global average.
This average reading is meaningless for any particular spot, but it is a
valuable way to measure long-term trends, and it puts the planet in its
warmest period in a millennium, with the trajectory still headed upward.
According to the Commerce Department, the global average surface temperature
increased at a rate of about one degree per 100 years over the 20th century,
but since 1976 the earth has been warming at the rate of about three degrees
per century. The Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research in
Britain put the odds at 50-50 for 2003 to match or exceed the temperature
record set in 1998. Dr. James E. Hansen, the director of the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration's Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
put the odds higher than that, barring a big new sun-blocking volcano or the
like. A decade-long paucity of big volcanic eruptions and a peak in solar
intensity can account for only part of the overall warming, he said, adding,
"Clearly it's primarily due to human forcing." The global average
temperature reached 58.0 degrees in 1998, while the average from 1880 to
2001 was 56.9 degrees. Preliminary estimates put the global temperature in
2002 at 57.9 degrees. Areas like Alaska have experienced sharper warming, in
patterns that largely match projections produced by computer simulations of
the climatic effect of rising greenhouse gases.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported this month that
satellite tracking of surface conditions on Greenland's vast ice sheet saw
more melting last summer than at any time in the 24-year satellite record.
Arctic sea ice also retreated more than it had done before in that span, the
agency said.
These time spans are short when it comes to climate, and polar experts say
it remains exceedingly difficult to ascribe regional changes to human
actions rather than natural cycles in ocean and weather circulation around
the Northern Hemisphere. The continuing global climb in temperatures,
however, is getting harder to link to natural climate fluctuations, many
scientists say. Temperatures Are Likely to Go From Warm to Warmer. Even if
2003 does not set a record, many experts say, it almost undoubtedly will
follow a generation-long rise in temperatures that has put the planet on
course for substantial shifts in drought and storm patterns, continuing and
significant retreats of terrestrial ice, and a resulting rise in sea levels
in coming decades. This month, American and British climate teams and the
World Meteorological Organization reported that 2002 would nudge out 2001 as
the second-warmest year since the late 1800's.
Some scientists still doubt that the human influence will alter the climate
beyond the range of natural variability, which they say has produced
significant shifts in past eras and will inevitably do so again. "We don't
really know enough about the climate to say with any confidence how much of
this warming is natural and how much is caused by human activities," said
Dr. John R. Christy, the director of the Earth System Science Center at the
University of Alabama in Huntsville. But his view is held by an
ever-shrinking minority of climate experts, partly because new analyses are
questioning some of their conclusions.
In
1990, Dr. Christy and a team that included NASA satellite experts pioneered
a method for measuring the average temperature of the atmosphere above the
surface, using instruments on weather satellites. In a series of papers
examining three decades of satellite data, they reported cooling or only
slight warming, and the findings were highlighted by skeptics of the
greenhouse theory among climatologists and policy makers.
A new analysis of the same data by an independent team of scientists
suggests that much more warming is under way in the upper atmosphere more
than three times as much as Dr. Christy estimated. These analyses are more
in line with surface trends and estimates produced by computer models. The
new results were described in a news release this month by the Commerce
Department but have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal. The
scientific teams with differing views of the satellite temperature data
argued at several scientific meetings this year, including the meeting
convened this month by the administration to set priorities for climate
research. At the meeting, Dr. Christy and the head of the other group,
Frank J. Wentz, the founder of Remote Sensing Systems, a company that
analyzes satellite data for the government, agreed to share more data and
information on the way they arrived at their results. While the debate about
the amount of atmospheric warming plays out, there is little disagreement
about the extent of warming at the surface.
The shifts around the Arctic whether natural or human-induced are
profound, said Dr. Waleed Abdalati, NASA's director of polar programs. "The
Greenland melting or the changes in ocean circulation or sea ice, any one of
those is kind of a `Wow, that's interesting,' " he said. "But when you see
them collectively and kind of working in concert with one another," Dr.
Abdalati added, "that's very significant." The result could be some
significant surprises, he said. This year, Dr. Abdalati was a co-author of
a study showing that the surface melting in Greenland, for example, was
unexpectedly accelerating the seaward crawl of the ice sheet as the melt
water percolated down through more than a half mile of ice and lubricated
the interface between the grinding sheet and the rock below. Should the
Greenland ice continue to accelerate, that could require scientists to
change their projections of how much a little warming could raise sea
levels.
28) METEOROLOGISTS, ENVIRONMENTALISTS DISMAYED AT BUSH ADMINISTRATION
Sydney Morning Herald
December 30, 2002
Internet:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/12/29/1040511258414.html
As
they reflect on 2002, the second-warmest year on record according to US and
British meteorologists, many environmentalists look with dismay at the Bush
administration. And they don't mince their words. "This leadership is so
ideologically hostile to conservation efforts, they've taken the 'conserve'
out of conservative," said the Natural Resource Defence Council's Alyssondra
Campaign. The Wilderness Society's Dave Alberswerth has charged: "There is
no concern for the environment and a great deal of deference given to oil,
gas and livestock industries, the constituency that financially supports the
Republican Party." While glaciers and ice caps are melting, groups such as
Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth see a White House led by former oil
executives that has rejected global efforts to combat the man-made emissions
widely blamed for climate change. This month, as neighbouring Canada became
the 99th country to ratify the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the United States - the
world's largest economy, responsible for one quarter of greenhouse gas
emissions - asked for more time to study the science behind climate change.
And while clean solar, wind and fuel-cell technologies hold vast promise,
the critics say, the Bush government has allowed Detroit car makers to keep
producing large gas-guzzlers while maintaining US access to cheap oil as a
key goal of its foreign policy.
A sensible way to advance homeland security, argues veteran environmentalist
Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute, would be to boost clean
alternative energies while weaning the US of its addiction to volatile
Mideast oil. Instead, the US opposed global renewable energy targets at the
Earth Summit in Johannesburg this year. Delegates booed Secretary of State
Colin Powell, who had travelled there while President George W Bush was
taking a summer break at his ranch. Bush's rural hideaway near Waco, Texas
has been where the president has often demonstrated his love for the
American outdoors, at times clearing trails or chopping wood as reporters
watched. The White House has hailed the administration's "commitment to a
new environmentalism for the 21st century" - an approach that puts less
faith in bureaucracy and more in the market to reduce pollution and solve
other environmental problems. Lauding Bush's environmental achievements, the
White House on its website praises "the largest habitat restoration ever
undertaken" in Florida's long-abused Everglades wetlands.
It also describes the Healthy Forests Initiative, a response to this year's
catastrophic wildfires based on "reducing unnecessary regulatory obstacles
that hinder active forest management". The idea is to thin out the
highly-combustible undergrowth left standing by decades of fire prevention
efforts - and to allow companies to do the job and make a profit by selling
the timber. Suspicious environmentalists see a thinly-disguised gift to the
timber industry. "It is disingenuous to promote increased logging packaged
as fuel reduction," said Sierra Club head Carl Pope. In another
hotly-contested issue, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has
proposed easing power plant emissions rules, claiming cutting red tape will
let operators make investments that will eventually help clear the air. With
air and water already the cleanest they have been in decades, agreed Patrick
Michaels of the libertarian Cato Institute, Bush can afford take "a more
analytical look at the costs and benefits of environmental regulations ...
perhaps with a colder eye than the previous administration".
But Greenpeace and the Sierra Club disagree and are suing the EPA for
violating the 1977 Clean Air Act. Another flashpoint has been a plan to
raise fuel efficiency for light trucks - which now make up half of all road
vehicles sold in the US - marginally by 2007. The non-profit Union of
Concerned Scientists called the move "political theatre". Environmental
activists are now bracing for 2003, when Republicans will control both
houses of Congress. Among unfinished business the Republicans have said they
hope to return to will be a plan to drill for oil and gas in an Alaskan
wildlife sanctuary, a proposal Senate Democrats blocked this year.
Michaels, however, predicted that Bush will also try to look "greener" as
the 2004 election campaign starts, pushing for more environmental research
and a voluntary emissions trading system. It may be too little too late to
win the hearts and minds of the environmental movement. Frustrated with
Bush's stance on Kyoto, many groups and states this year took matters into
their own hands. Liberal California passed a law that will require
car-makers to cut carbon emissions from cars and light trucks to zero by
2008. General Motors and Ford shareholders are also urging the world's two
largest car-makers to aggressively cut greenhouses gases. And major
religious groups last month urged their followers to consider global climate
change when they buy a car, using the bumper-sticker slogan "What would
Jesus Drive?"
29) INSURANCE SURVEY: NATURAL DISASTERS CAUSED US$55 BILLION IN DAMAGE IN
2002
AP
December 30, 2002
Internet:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20021230/ap_wo_en_po/eu_fin_germany_world_disasters_1
BERLIN - Natural disasters caused an estimated US$55 billion in damage and
killed 11,000 people in 2002, with last summer's flooding in central and
eastern Europe taking the biggest economic toll, the world's largest
reinsurance company said Monday. Economic losses jumped by nearly 60
percent over 2001, and global warming makes further increases in natural
disasters and the damage they cause inevitable, Munich Re's survey said.
Flooding by the Elbe, Danube and other European rivers last August caused
losses of some US$18.5 billion in "the worst floods in Europe for centuries,
probably since the millennium flood in August 1342," the survey said. Only
US$3 billion of the flood damage was insured.
The worst human toll hit Afghanistan in May when more than 2,000 people were
killed in a series of earthquakes in the Hindu Kush mountains. Summer
flooding in Nepal, Bangladesh and India claimed some 1,200 lives, while
about 1,100 people were killed in a heat wave in India. Overall, US$11.5
billion of the year's natural disaster damage was covered by insurance
companies about the same amount as in 2001, Munich Re said. But economic
losses surged from US$35 billion in 2001 to some US$55 billion. Changes in
the global environment will lead to more natural disasters in the future and
"losses will continue their sharp upward trend," Munich Re said. "The
evidence points to critical extreme wind speeds and precipitation being
exceeded with increasing frequency, so for this reason alone there will
inevitably be a stark increase in the loss burdens as well," Gerhard Berz,
head of Munich Re's risks research department, said in a statement. "2002
was, along with 1998, the warmest year since temperature readings began, and
this is evidence of the still unbroken trend of global warming."
Reinsurerers sell backup insurance to other insurance companies, spreading
risk so that enormous losses from natural catastrophes can be covered. The
companies make money both from premiums and from investing premium proceeds
in stocks and bonds, so the drop in stock markets has hurt their profits
30) 'NEXT YEAR WILL BE HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN'
New Zealand Herald
December 29, 2002
Internet:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3049060&thesection=news&thesubsection=world
The coming year is likely to be the hottest since records began, senior
meteorologists have told the British Government. A report to the Government
by the Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre - the world's leading authority
on predicting the climate - concludes that 2003 is likely to be as warm or
warmer worldwide than 1998, the hottest year to date, as global warming
increasingly takes hold. Next year is also expected to witness the Kyoto
Protocol, the international treaty to combat climate change, coming into
effect - and the prediction will increase pressure on governments to act.
The report by two Met Office scientists - Chris Folland and Andrew Colman -
is the result of a sophisticated new prediction system developed by the
Hadley Centre. It correctly predicted a year ago that 2002 would be the
second hottest year ever, after 1998. The report says that the most
important determining factors of worldwide temperatures are global warming,
in the long term, and the El Nino weather phenomenon, on a year-by-year
timescale.
Dr Folland explained that it was a particularly strong El Nino that made
1998 so warm, raising global temperatures by 0.2 degrees centigrade. Global
warming adds 0.02 degrees centigrade to worldwide average temperatures every
year, he adds, and so the five years after 1998 will have raised
temperatures in themselves by 0.1 degrees centigrade, making up half the
effect of that year's El Nino. Another weaker El Nino has begun and it is
expected to raise temperatures by about 0.1 degrees centigrade in 2003,
causing it to equal 1998. The scientists say: "The best estimate forecast
is for a year equal in temperature to the warmest year on record." They add
that it could well be even warmer. The scientists estimate that there is
only one chance in five that 2003 will be cooler than 2002. The hottest 15
years on record have all occurred since 1980 and the three warmest have been
in the last five years.
See Also:
2002 second hottest as global warming speeds - WMO, Planet Ark, December 18,
2002
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/19106/story.htm
31) ISLANDERS WORRY AS TIDE KEEPS RISING
Los Angeles Times
December 29, 2002
Internet:
http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/4833305.htm
VAIAKU, Tuvalu - This isolated country is not much more than a few specks in
the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Its highest point is 16 feet above sea
level. But Tuvalu is at the center of international debate over climate
change. Many of Tuvalu's people worry that rising sea levels caused by
global warming will wash away their country. They talk of filing a lawsuit
against the U.S. government or big American corporations for polluting the
atmosphere and causing the planet's temperature to rise. They condemn
President Bush for backing out of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming. "We
don't have hills or mountains. All we have is coconut trees," elder
statesman Koloa Talake said. "If the industrial countries don't consider our
crisis, our only alternative is to climb up in the coconut trees when the
tide rises."
By all appearances, Tuvalu is a Polynesian paradise. With seven coral atolls
and two coral islands, the country is spread across 350 miles of the South
Pacific north of New Zealand. Palm trees grow along white sand beaches that
fringe the turquoise waters of lagoons. It remains to be seen whether
science will support Tuvalu's predictions of impending doom, but no one
doubts the country faces a precarious existence. At the ripe age of 65
million years, its atolls are nearing the end of their geologic life span.
Not only do islanders face the danger of the sea rising, they also face the
inevitable problem of the land sinking. Each atoll was formed when a
volcanic island sank beneath the sea, leaving a ring of coral islands around
a lagoon.
An outer reef protects the land from the pounding of the sea. The coral can
grow upward and keep pace with a gradual increase in sea level, but if the
ocean rises too quickly, the natural barrier could be lost. "If the reef is
destroyed, it's goodbye, Tuvalu," said Wolfgang Scherer, director of
Australia's National Tidal Facility. The atolls are especially vulnerable to
tropical storms that can blow in and change the landscape overnight. In
1997, a cyclone swept the topsoil and every tree and bush off the islet of
Tepuka Savilivili in Tuvalu's main atoll, Funafuti. This former British
colony has just 10 square miles of land and a population of about 11,000.
The Tuvaluans are Polynesians whose ancestors arrived by canoe possibly more
than 2,000 years ago. Today they fish, raise pigs and grow taro, cassava,
bananas and coconuts on small plots of land.
Men and women commonly wear flowers in their hair. Many houses have thatched
roofs and walls made of woven mats. When the country's 12-member Parliament
is not meeting in the open-sided Maneapa meeting hall, boys play soccer
there. In the cool, early morning hours, Tuvaluans go walking on Funafuti's
airport runway -- or lie down there for a rest. Tuvalu is connected to the
outside world only by flights to Fiji twice a week and by occasional cargo
ships that bring supplies. Visitors are few. The country has one hotel, and
it has no hot water. On Funafuti, television is normally broadcast one
evening a week for two hours. A few people, mostly government officials,
have computers and can connect to the Internet. There are few cars, and most
people get around on foot or by motorbike. The Tuvaluan government is
marshaling its arguments in the hope of winning foreign help in finding a
new home if the need arises. Tuvalu has hired an attorney in Washington and
is considering whether its best strategy is to sue the U.S. government or
American oil companies, coal mining companies and auto makers. But officials
acknowledge that pinning the blame for global warming on individual
companies would be a long shot.
At one point, Tuvalu asked Australia to agree to accept its entire
population in the event the islands are flooded, but Australia refused. New
Zealand has agreed to accept 75 Tuvaluans a year, but many islanders can't
afford to make the move. While there is no question that the world's oceans
have been rising, no one can predict with certainty how fast they will rise.
Nine years ago, scientists from Australia's National Tidal Facility
installed high-tech gauges in Tuvalu and 10 other Pacific nations to measure
changes in sea level. The Tuvalu gauge has detected an average increase of 1
millimeter a year -- the same rate at which the oceans have been rising for
the last century. Because the average ocean level can fluctuate more than a
foot from year to year, researchers say they will need at least two more
decades to determine whether the water is rising faster than before. "The
critical question is whether sea level rise is going to accelerate," said
Scherer, the tidal facility director. "So far, there is no evidence of that
happening in Tuvalu or anywhere else around the globe."
As the Earth's average temperature has gone up over the last century,
glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, the Swiss Alps, the Himalayas and the Andes
have receded. The fear is that huge ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica
will melt, drastically increasing the volume of water in the oceans and
inundating coastal areas. "Tuvalu is the first victim of global warming,"
said Talake, a former prime minister. "We don't see any way of avoiding
that. The only thing we can do is hope that industrial countries may listen
to our poor voice." In February, the time of year when the tides typically
are highest, the water rose to within an inch of flooding the home of
third-grade teacher Easter Molu. "We think maybe next year the water will be
inside our house," said Molu.
32) FUROR OVER RATIFICATION IS OVER; CANADA MOVES TO MAKING KYOTO WORK
Canada.Com
December 28, 2002
Internet: http://www.canada.com/ottawa/story.asp?id={5DEA2579-A7CB-425E-A5D4-FAA1753BD773}
OTTAWA (CP) - Now that Canada has ratified the Kyoto protocol the hard part
begins - making it work. The challenge is to cut heat-trapping greenhouse
gas emissions by a whopping 20 to 30 per cent over the next decade without
cramping the country's economic growth. Accomplishing that will require
changes in nearly every area of Canadian life, from home heating and
manufacturing to transportation to city planning.
The international treaty to curb greenhouse emissions is expected to come
into force once it's ratified by Russia in coming months, pushing
participation to more than 100 countries accounting for more than 55 per
cent of the world's industrial emissions.
Big business in Canada must find ways to prosper and grow without exceeding
strict limits on emissions produced by oil, coal and gas - the fuels that
drive virtually every industrial process. Individuals are being asked to
voluntarily eliminate a tonne of emissions annually - 20 per cent below
current per capita levels. A tonne of greenhouse gas would fill an average
house. Despite the magnitude of the task, Environment Minister David
Anderson expects political debate over Kyoto to settle down in coming
months.
He
believes attitudes will shift into a more co-operative mode now that an
irrevocable commitment to the climate treaty has been made. "I'm pleased
that we beat back the public relations campaign by the oil and gas crowd: I
think it was important to do that," Anderson said in a recent interview. "I
think we're going to have a much more reasonable discussion with them now."
There are still hopes the United States will eventually reconsider its
decision to pull out of the climate treaty or synchronize its
emissions-cutting actions with those of ratifying countries. Although
President George W. Bush has renounced Kyoto for fear of economic damage,
there is still a large pro-Kyoto lobby in the United States. Anderson
believes Canada can have an influence on discussions south of the border.
"I think we need to make sure that we as a North American jurisdiction
within the North American free trade area prove that Mr. Bush is wrong when
he said it would be so damaging to the U.S. economy," he says.
Six months ago, few people would have predicted that Canada would be in the
camp of ratifying countries.
It
was widely assumed that Canada would follow the U.S. lead in withdrawing
from the climate treaty.
There was great surprise when Prime Minister Jean Chretien announced in
September that Canada would ratify before the end of the year.
While some business leaders were outraged, the move won Chretien new respect
from many, especially environmentalists, youth and nationalists. In the
eyes of Chretien's new fans, ratification was not just about protecting the
environment, but an affirmation of Canadian sovereignty. Anderson chides
those who doubted the government's willingness to choose its own course.
"We have people saying we've lost our sovereignty for all intents and
purposes, saying we can do nothing unless the Americans do it first.
"I reminded those people we were at war with Germany some two years before
the United States came in."
The political battle over Kyoto over the past few months has been one of the
fiercest in recent history. Almost every day brought new warnings of the
devastation Kyoto would wreak.
Alberta Premier Ralph Klein threatened a constitutional challenge and
suggested at one point his province might be driven to separate from
Canada. Anderson says U.S. companies were heavily involved in the fight.
"We've been up against some of the oil and gas industry and they are a
pretty tough crowd. They've got some very heavy-duty U.S. communications
companies assisting them." Anderson expects measures in the next budget to
encourage emissions-cutting, but warns that they will be just one step in a
long process.
"I
would expect measures . . . and I would expect when they come out people
will say: 'Ah, but it doesn't do enough.' "Of course they're right, but . .
. it's part of a program that will see us ramp up to 2008 and indeed to the
final 2012 year." Under the Kyoto agreement, Canada's average emissions
over the 2008-2012 period are required to be six per cent lower than 1990
levels.
The government has promised it won't introduce new taxes to discourage the
use of fossil fuels. That leaves regulations, incentives and investments as
its tools. The course ahead has been sketched in a federal action plan
released in October. Some measures: - Make existing buildings more energy
efficient and set high energy efficiency requirements for new buildings.
Subsidize energy audits for homeowners. - Increase use of ethanol-blended
gasoline. Develop fuel cell technologies that would run vehicles on
hydrogen. Improve standards for equipment and appliances. Provide incentives
for wind power. - Negotiate a 25 per cent improvement in the fuel
efficiency of new vehicles by 2010. Improve mass transit and urban planning.
Limit greenhouse emissions by big industry and let industry figure out how
to do it. Set up an emissions-trading system so companies have greater
flexibility. - Buy emissions credits on the international market to reduce
the amount we have to cut ourselves.
Probably the biggest question about Kyoto is: What will it cost? The
Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters estimated the treaty could cost 450,000
manufacturing jobs by 2010, while resulting in sharply increased energy
costs and $3 billion in spending for international emissions credits.
Ottawa maintains there is no reliable way to estimate in advance the total
bill for such a large and long-term national effort. Federal officials note
that many key factors, from the cost of oil to the success of fuel-cell
technology, cannot be forecast with any reliability. Economic forecasts
commissioned by Ottawa suggest that a Kyoto-bound economy will continue to
grow in coming years, but not quite as fast as it would have in a
business-as-usual scenario. "I think we can show that you can achieve
climate change measures effectively and do it without damaging your
economy," says Anderson.
33) PLANNED EU EMISSIONS SCHEME TRIGGERS FIRST TRADES
Planet Ark
December 23, 2002
Internet:
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/19187/story.htm
FRANKFURT - The EU's emissions trading scheme, agreed by the bloc's
environment ministers last week and due to go live in 2005, has led to the
first speculative trades, German energy industry and government sources
said. This showed European industries had already accepted the scheme,
which is key in the EU's effort to fight global warming, although it still
faced bureaucratic and practical hurdles, the sources said.
"The German government has initiated the first legal steps and initial
trades in the forwards market show that the industries are firmly convinced
that emissions trading will definitely come," the head of the German
government's Federal Climate Working Group Franzjosef Schafhausen told
Reuters.
Traders are already brokering first speculative trades of carbon dioxide
(CO2) certificates between companies, including German utilities, even
though it is unclear whether they will be of value when the EU scheme
officially begins. "Volumes in the forwards market are still limited and it
is unclear whether these certificates will be of any value in the future,
but current trading activities should be seen as a test," said Michael
Weltin, energy policy adviser at German utility E.ON (EONG.DE). Once the EU
scheme is officially put in place and market liquidity is on the rise, a
bourse will offer emission rights trading, the energy industry sources
said. The UK's London Stock exchange (LSE.L), German rival Deutsche Boerse
(DB1Gn.DE) as well as the country's EEX power bourse are all said to be
examining the issue.
But the launch of the EU's trading scheme still faces major hurdles before
its launch and some players in the industry doubt that it will start in
2005. "I believe that January 1 2005 is a very optimistic date, as there
are still a lot of bureaucratic and practical hurdles to overcome," said
Henning Rentz, head of German utility RWE's (RWEG.DE) environmental policy
division. Following the EU parliament's approval, which is expected as late
as autumn 2003, each country in the 15-nation bloc will be under pressure to
present plans on how to allocate emission rights in their industries,
Schafhausen said. "Countries by March 31 2004 need to submit a national
allocation plan that puts caps on amounts of CO2 their industries, traffic
and private households can emit - that leaves little time," he said.
34) GLOBAL WARMING EVIDENCE MOUNTS; FLURRY OF REPORTS SHOW A WITHERING ICE
CAP
SFgate.com
December 23, 2002
Internet:
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2002/12/23/MN226990.DTL
From the tropics to the poles, evidence is growing stronger than ever that
Earth's climate is warming dangerously. In the Arctic Ocean, floating
masses of sea ice are shrinking and splitting apart, and the massive
Greenland ice cap melted more this past summer than ever before. Meanwhile,
warming ocean temperatures are endangering coral reefs in the tropics. At
the annual fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco
earlier this month, a flurry of new reports examining evidence of global
climate change all tell the same story. If the trends continue unchecked,
scientists say, rising sea levels will drown coastlines. Droughts in some
regions -- and increased rainfall in others -- will alter harvests
drastically. And other climate disruptions will destabilize regional
ecologies and global economies. Some of these alarming phenomena may be due
to the natural climate variability that the planet has seen over millions of
years. But most scientists agree, after years of debate, that humans and
their addiction to fossil fuels are at least partly to blame. "It is humans
who are clearly forcing the abrupt climate change we see right now," said
Richard B. Alley of Pennsylvania State University, who recently chaired a
National Research Council committee looking specifically at climate change.
So-called greenhouse gases trap the sun's radiation much the way glass
windows trap heat inside a home or a greenhouse. The most powerful of those
gases is carbon dioxide, which comes primarily from burning fossil fuel,
while other gases include methane, sulfur dioxide and ozone.
THE BUSH REPORT
A
recent NRC report, which the Bush administration requested last year when
scientists criticized the White House for its slow response to growing
evidence of global warming, concluded that "human-induced warming" will
continue through the 21st century. While it conceded great uncertainties in
the many models of climate trends that experts have produced, the report
predicted that the planet's climate would warm by 2.5 to 10.4 degrees
Fahrenheit by the century's end due to human activity. Signs of the
striking pace of that trend came in reports from many scientists who monitor
the ice of the globe's far north. The Arctic's sea ice -- large masses of
snow-covered ice that float everywhere around the polar latitudes -- usually
covers 2.4 million square miles of the ocean north of Canada, Greenland and
Russia in September, the height of the ice season. This past summer,
however, measurements showed that the sea ice had decreased by nearly a
half-million square miles. The flat ice floes left wider sections of open
water between them and became extremely thin in many areas, reported Ted
Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. It
marked the most abrupt change in the ocean's ice cover that scientists
monitoring the region have seen in 24 years, said Mark Serreze of the data
center. Records kept by Icelandic fishermen indicate the cover may not have
been so low for centuries. "I was really surprised by the change," Serreze
said. "This was the craziest summer season I've ever seen up there."
MELTING FASTER THAN EVER
Equally ominous was a report by Konrad Steffen, a glaciologist at the
University of Colorado, on Greenland's vast ice cover, second only in size
to Antarctica. It was melting faster this year across nearly 265,000 square
miles than at any period in recorded history, Steffen said. The ice sheet is
a mile and a half thick in some places. As meltwater from the surface seeps
through crevices in the ice, it loosens the edges of the sheet and causes
the ice to flow more swiftly to the sea, where it breaks off into icebergs.
If the entire Greenland ice sheet were to completely melt -- admittedly an
unlikely event, at least in the near future -- then scientists calculate
that sea levels would rise by a globally disastrous 23 feet. Steffen had a
firsthand experience of the dangers of melting ice. He and his colleagues
were camped on the normally hard-frozen Greenland ice last June when their
camp and equipment were flooded under a foot of meltwater and they had to be
rescued by helicopter. The high Arctic is by no means the only part of the
world where climate change is becoming more dramatic. Scientists are equally
concerned about the impact of changes on tropical oceans.
KILLING CORAL
Coral reefs are living creatures. As they die, their calcite skeletons build
up the reefs over millions of years. They are a crucial part of the world's
marine ecosystems, vital to the productivity of many tropical fisheries.
Most reefs are in shallow waters near continental and island coasts, where
human-caused destruction is widespread from coastal pollution, from tourists
trampling the reef organisms, from fishermen ravaging them, and from the
hulls of ships grinding over them. But five years ago, the corals in many
parts of the world were afflicted by a mysterious episode of bleaching that
slowed their growth and in many regions killed them outright. Researchers
note that the bleaching has coincided with increasing ocean temperatures.
"There is growing agreement that doubling of the carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere means a 15 percent decline in the coral population," said Robert
W. Buddemeier, a senior chemist with the Kansas Geological Survey, who has
studied the impact of climate change on coral reefs. "By the end of the
century, with the effects of increasing levels of carbon dioxide on
temperature and on ocean chemistry, the corals will be in the worst shape
we've seen in the past 50 million years. Things are really dicey," he added.
NO TOUGH MEASURES
The growing evidence of damage from climate change has goaded the Bush
administration to push its own research program, although the president does
not support any tough measures to control greenhouse gas emissions,
including the Kyoto Protocol agreed to by most industrialized nations.
Earlier this month, Assistant Secretary of Commerce James Mahoney, an
atmospheric physicist who is Bush's point man on global warming, staged a
"workshop" in Washington where 1,500 people from industry, government,
academic and environmental organizations worked on plans for a "strategy for
climate change research." "There are still any number of science questions
to be resolved," Mahoney told reporters at the AGU meeting in San Francisco.
He conceded, however, that already "we will most likely need profound
changes in greenhouse gas emissions. " But to many analysts, time is
wasting. Global warming will cause "major political instabilities in the
developing world that could disrupt the global economy," said Lester R.
Brown, founder of the Earth Policy Institute and a noted environmental
analyst who spent 10 years as a policy adviser in the Department of
Agriculture.
FOOD SUPPLY IMPACT
If
measures aren't taken soon to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the changes in
climate will force rapid changes in the way the world's food crops are
grown. That has important implications for feeding the world's growing
population, expected to increase to at least 9 billion by 2050. "The vast
corn belt of the Northern Hemisphere, for example, will become hotter and
dryer, and that change can't be resolved merely by creating new corn belts
further north, because the soils further north are not the same at all,"
Brown said. "Each global increase of 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees
Fahrenheit) around the world will reduce grain yields like rice and wheat,
as well as corn, by at least 10 percent," he said. And because aquifers are
being tapped at an increasing pace throughout the world and water tables are
falling, the outcome will soon mean a devastating blow to agriculture --
particularly in the developing world, he said.
"This disruption by a combination of climate change and water shortages has
the potential for creating political instabilities on a scale that we can't
even foresee," Brown declared.
35) GREENHOUSE GASES DECREASE EXPERTS CITE U.S. ECONOMIC DECLINE, WARM
WINTER
Washington Post
December 21, 2002
Internet:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19739-2002Dec20.html
U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases decreased by 1.2
percent last year, the largest annual decline in more than a decade,
according to a new government report. Experts said the decline had nothing
to do with government policy changes, but instead was the result of an
economic slowdown and an unseasonably warm winter that sharply reduced
demand for fossil fuels. Many scientists blame the burning of such fuels for
the Earth's rising temperature. "This is just one year's worth of data, and
our projections don't indicate the beginning of a new trend," said John
Cogan, a spokesman for the Energy Department's Energy Information
Administration, which prepared the report. "This is perhaps an anomaly
driven more by lower economic growth than anything else."
Greenhouse gas emissions totaled 1.883 billion metric tons of carbon
equivalent last year, compared with a record 1.907 billion in 2000, the
study showed. The drop in emissions was mainly linked to the overall decline
in the nation's economic growth to 0.3 percent in 2001, down from 3.8
percent in 2000; a 4.4 percent reduction in manufacturing output; and the
warmer winter weather of 2001-02, which cut demand and combustion of coal,
oil and gas. Even so, overall emissions are 11.9 percent above the 1990
level, and the United States remains the single largest contributor to the
emissions linked to global warming, which many experts say could result in
long-term disruptions in weather patterns, the melting of the polar ice caps
and flooding of populated coastal regions. This year has been the second
warmest in recorded history, according to NASA scientists who monitor global
air temperatures. The earth's average temperature during 2002 was 58.35
degrees Fahrenheit, more than one degree warmer than the long-term average
of 57.2 degrees, according to climate scientists at the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies.
Environmentalists and some scientists warn that dangerous signs of global
warming are already evident. For example, an Antarctic ice shelf the size of
Rhode Island shattered and collapsed into the sea in March, the permafrost
in parts of Alaska has begun to thaw, and glaciers in the Bolivian Andes
mountains are melting at an alarming pace. The Bush administration has
acknowledged that global warming poses serious problems, but senior
officials speaking at a Commerce Department conference earlier this month
said numerous uncertainties remain about global warming's cause and effects.
They urged caution in committing the United States to long-term solutions
that might hurt the economy. Earlier this week, Canada became the 100th
country to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 agreement that would require
the world's nations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other
heat-trapping gases by an average of 5.7 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.
Although the United States signed the agreement in November 1998, President
Bush disavowed it last year, arguing that it would seriously harm the U.S.
economy while exempting large, developing countries including China and
India. Some economists say the United States would have to curtail its
energy use by as much as 30 percent to achieve the goals spelled out in the
Kyoto treaty.
Bush instead has called for more research and a series of incentive programs
for industry to encourage voluntarily reductions in their emissions. "While
people can and are using energy more efficiently, a growing economy with a
growing population will require more energy, not less -- which means more
greenhouse gas emissions," said William O'Keefe, a former petroleum industry
executive who is now president of the George C. Marshall Institute, a
science policy think tank. "Right now, there is no viable alternative to
coal and oil and gas, which provide close to 90 percent of our energy." But
Jennifer L. Morgan, a climate change expert with the World Wildlife Fund,
said that "If the administration really rolls up its sleeves and puts
together a strong plan, we could go a long ways towards tackling global
warming."
36) KYOTO WILL ONLY POSTPONE GLOBAL WARMING
Edie
December 20, 2002
Internet:
http://www.edie.net/gf.cfm?L=left_frame.html&R=http://www.edie.net/news/Archive/6435.cfm
The Kyoto agreement to cut carbon emissions will have little effect on
global warming, according to Danish environmental skeptic Bjørn Lomborg.
Money allocated to climate change abatement could be better spent improving
health, education and sanitary conditions across the world. In the Christmas
issue of the British Medical Journal, the Director of the Danish
Environmental Assessment Institute says that the costs of the Kyoto protocol
will be large while the benefits will be marginal, postponing the planets
temperature rise a mere six years from 2100 to 2106. For the same amount of
money that Kyoto will cost the European Union every year, the UN estimates
that we could provide every person in the world with access to basic health,
education, family planning, and water and sanitation services, says Lomborg
in his paper How healthy is the world?. But in an accompanying commentary in
the BMJ, Anthony McMichael of the Australian National University argues that
Lomborgs views ignore the ecological and social implications of global
environmental change, adding that the recognised marginal impact that the
Kyoto protocol will have on global warming only increases the urgency for
more radical and politically challenging cuts in emissions.
37) GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM TRADING: THE FORGOTTEN FIGURES
Edie weekly summaries
December 20, 2002
Internet:
http://www.edie.net/gf.cfm?L=left_frame.html&R=http://www.edie.net/news/Archive/6414.cfm
A new study warns that the impact of trading in goods and services on
climate change can be forgotten in calculations of greenhouse gas
contributions to global warming. The report, Environmental Impact of Swedish
Trade, shows that Swedens imports of goods and services in 1998 resulted in
40 million tonnes of carbon dioxide released in other countries. Swedens
own exports contributed to 27 million additional tonnes of CO2 emitted in
the same year. Around a third of all CO2 emissions related to Swedish
consumption were generated abroad, with 60% of sulphur dioxide emissions
also being generated overseas. These calculations do not appear in the
countrys official statistics, which are solely based on emissions within
Swedens borders, says the report by the Swedish Statistics Bureau (SCB).
Energy trading is also omitted from climate calculations, where for example,
Swedish imports of electricity in 1995 were responsible for five million
tonnes of CO2 overseas. Variations in temperature and demand mean that the
impact of electricity trading will vary from year to year, and should be
taken into account.
Meanwhile, Swedens energy authorities are investing in a two-year research
and development programme to improve the energy efficiency of a range of
industries. The 150 million Swedish krona invested will go to projects on
water turbine technology, biomass development, improving energy use in the
steel and paper industries and refining paper and mass production processes.
The country is also launching a Climate Campaign to raise public awareness
and change attitudes on global warming. The campaign, which runs to 2004,
will highlight local initiatives and opportunities for Sweden to contribute
to climate change abatement, through TV and poster advertisements.
38) OAKLAND JOINS SUIT ON GLOBAL WARMING
East Bay Business Times
December 20, 2002
Internet:
http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/eastbay/stories/2002/12/16/daily63.html
Oakland has become the second U.S. municipality to join a lawsuit claiming
two federal agencies are violating environmental law through $32 billion in
loans for foreign oil fields, pipelines and coal-fired power plants over the
last 10 years. Boulder, Colo., earlier joined the suit, filed in U.S.
District Court in San Francisco by two environmental groups, San
Francisco-based Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth. The suit alleges the
Export-Import Bank and Overseas Private Investment Corp. funded the fossil
fuel projects without first assessing contribution to global warming or
effect on the U.S. environment as required by the National Environmental
Policy Act. Ex-Im and OPIC are taxpayer-funded agencies that provide
financing and loans to U.S. corporations for overseas projects rejected by
commercial banks.
According to the Global Warming Project, Oakland and the Bay Area could face
increased risk of saltwater contamination in groundwater aquifers as a
result of sea levels rising from the effects of global warming. Oakland
International Airport, built on a former wetland about 10 feet above sea
level, would be susceptible to flooding from extreme tides coupled with
flood conditions and storm surges, according to the environmental groups.
39) UN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY WELCOMES CANADAS RATIFICATION OF KYOTO PROTOCOL
United Nations
December 19, 2002
Internet:
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=5712&Cr=kyoto&Cr1=protocol
19 December Canadas decision to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the five
year-old agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, showed courage and
leadership and recognized the overwhelming scientific and moral arguments
for fighting climate change, the head of the United Nations environment
agency said today. Global warming is the greatest environmental threat
this planet faces, said Klaus Toepfer, Executive Director of the
Environment Programme (UNEP). The scientific evidence, that pollution from
sources such as factories, power plants and vehicles is changing the worlds
weather systems, is already with us. The moral arguments are equally
compelling as it is the poorest of the poor, on continents like Africa, who
stand to suffer most from an upsurge in extreme weather events such as
floods and droughts.
Canadas move means that those developed countries that have so far ratified
represent close to 44 per cent of the 1990 emissions of carbon dioxide, the
principal greenhouse gas. In order for the Protocol to enter into force, 55
per cent of the developed worlds 1990 emissions must be covered. Russia,
with over 17 per cent of the emissions, is crucial for the Protocol to
become international law. Mr. Toepfer said Canadas ratification was even
more impressive given that countrys high reliance on coal, gas and oil.
The fact that Canada believes it can achieve its reduction targets, despite
being a big user and producer of fossil fuels, gives the clear signal to
others that fighting global warming is not economic suicide, he said. It
shows that reducing the risks of climate change are realistic and necessary
which, if managed sensibly, can have important economic benefits in terms of
the development of new technologies, jobs and financial markets
40) UK ENERGY PAPER TO PLAN AHEAD HALF A CENTURY
Planet Ark
December 19, 2002
Internet:
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/19127/story.htm
LONDON - British Trade and Industry Secretary Patricia Hewitt said on
Wednesday that a government paper on restructuring the energy sector to be
published in the New Year will set out plans for the sector for half a
century. Hewitt said the White Paper, which sets out the government's
legislative plans, will address four main long-term objectives. The paper
will look at the scarcity of energy supply, at environmental issues such as
climate change and will address "economic competitiveness" to ensure British
energy firms can compete against rivals across the world. The paper will
also seek to ensure that everyone has access to heating and lighting, which
basically entails dealing with the problem of old, dark, damp houses, Hewitt
said. The paper will also look at the role of nuclear power, she said,
without going into details. The nuclear industry shot to the top of the
political agenda earlier this year when privatised nuclear firm British
Energy Plc (BGY.L) went to the government for a loan to keep it from going
bust. A government-backed restructuring plan is being fiercely contested by
anti-nuclear groups. "It's really looking 50 years ahead, but particularly
20 years ahead because that is the timespan one has to look at with energy,"
Hewitt told reporters at a lunch event. In May, the government launched a
prolonged consultation process over its energy strategy with a view to
publishing a White Paper. A White Paper can later be drafted into a bill to
pass through parliament into law.
A government-commissioned report, released in February, said Britain should
raise its target for energy supplied by renewable sources to 20 percent by
2020 but also keep open the option to invest anew in nuclear power. Then,
Energy minister Brian Wilson signalled support for the conclusions of the
Performance and Innovation Unit, a thinktank set up by Prime Minister Tony
Blair. That unit suggested that the government should set overall domestic
targets for a 20 percent improvement in energy efficiency by 2010 and a
further 20 percent over the following decade. The government's existing
target is for 10 percent of Britain's energy supplies to come from sources
such as wind and solar power by 2010. Hewitt said the environmental side of
the paper would look beyond the Kyoto protocol "at what our climate change
targets ought to be and how we create an energy policy and market that will
actually deliver on...climate change but other environmental goals too. The
global Kyoto protocol aims to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases emitted
by developed countries by 5.2 percent on 1990 levels by 2008-2012.
Under the Kyoto pact, Britain agreed to cut its greenhouse gases by 12.5
percent in the same period
41) FOCUS SHIFTS TO RUSSIA AS KYOTO CLUB REACHES 100
Economic Times
December 19, 2002
Internet:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/xml/comp/articleshow?artid=31698818
NEW DELHI: Canadas ratification yesterday, of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on
climate change, brings the agreements total membership to 100. To enter
into force the protocol now requires only the ratification of the Russian
Federation. The Russian Parliament is expected to act within the next
several months. Achieving the symbolic threshold of 100 ratifications
demonstrates that the Kyoto Protocol has widespread international support,
says Joke Waller-Hunter, executive secretary, United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, under which the protocol was adopted. The
Kyoto Protocol establishes a double trigger for entry into force. The
first trigger is ratification by 55 governments a requirement that was met
earlier this year. The second trigger is that the ratifying governments must
include developed countries representing at least 55% of that groups 1990
carbon dioxide emissions. With the receipt of Canadas ratification, and
that of Poland earlier this month, developed country ratifications now
account for 43.7% of 1990 CO2 emissions (as determined in 1997 when the
protocol was adopted). Russias 17.4% will be essential for pushing the
tally over the required 55% limit.
Most industrialized countries are now on board and have cemented their
commitment to reversing the historical rise in greenhouse gas emissions that
started with the industrial revolution. But these countries have only 10
more years to meet their Kyoto emissions targets, and the evidence today is
that most of them still have a great deal of work to do to reduce their
greenhouse gases, she said in a UNFCCC press release here today. Ms
Waller-Hunter also pointed to the large number of developing countries that
had ratified the protocol. She said this was a sign of their commitment to
the protocol as an instrument of global co-operation to address a global
problem. Japan as well as the European Union and its member states have
already ratified. Aside from Russia, ratification is also pending in about
half a dozen, mostly smaller, industrialized countries and countries with
economies in transition; all of these countries together, however, are not
sufficient for reaching the 55% mark.
42) MINISTRY PUSHES NEW GASOLINE BLEND; FUEL CONTAINING PLANT-DERIVED
ALCOHOL SEEN AS KYOTO PROTOCOL WINNER
The Japan Times
December 17, 2002
Internet:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20021217a7.htm
The Environment Ministry has decided to promote the use of gasoline
containing alcohol derived from agricultural resources such as sugarcane and
corn, ministry officials said Monday. The move is aimed at cutting
greenhouse gases, which are believed to be a major cause of global warming,
the officials said.
By 2008, the ministry is aiming to replace all current forms of regular
gasoline with the blended fuel, which would contain about 10 percent
ethanol, the officials said. They added that this should force the auto
industry to start producing vehicles capable of running on the new blended
fuel beginning in fiscal 2003.
A
ministry study group headed by Katsuya Nagata, professor at Waseda
University's Science and Technology Department, proposed the policy as a
step toward creating cleaner vehicle fuel. Vehicles that are capable of
running on fuel containing 10 percent ethanol have already been released in
the United States, where this type of gasoline holds a 12 percent market
share, the officials said.
In fiscal 2003, the ministry will study the safety and environmental
benefits of a low-concentration blended gasoline featuring between 1 percent
and 5 percent plant-derived ethanol, they said. The ministry will also
start selling the low-concentration blended fuel in some parts of the
country, they added. The blended fuel is viewed as being one way of helping
Japan meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol.
This is because the carbon dioxide released from the fuel would be regarded
as having derived from plants and would not thus be counted among the
nation's greenhouse gas emissions.
Should
regular gasoline be fully replaced by blended fuel, it would be possible to
cut greenhouse gas emissions by more than 1 percent from 1990 levels, the
officials said. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol requires industrialized countries to
cut their greenhouse-gas emissions from 1990 levels by an average of 5.2
percent between 2008 and 2012. Japan must cut its emissions by 6 percent.
The pact will come into force after being ratified by 55 countries
representing 55 percent of the carbon dioxide emissions of industrialized
countries in 1990.
43) LOOK WHAT POLITICAL
WILL CAN DO by Christopher Flavin and Gary Gardner
International Herald
Tribune
January 9, 2003
Internet:
http://www.iht.com/ihtsearch.php?id=82649&owner=&date=20030108161817
Flavin is president of
the Worldwatch Institute. Gardner is director of research at the institute
and project director for its annual State of the World survey.
WASHINGTON: Here, for a change, is some hopeful news about the environment:
Although global economic and environmental cooperation seems to be crumbling
everywhere, sprouting through the cracks are a slew of hardy perennials.
They include advances in renewable energy, materials reduction and control
of infectious disease. They also include seeds for raising incomes of the
poor, which, if nurtured, could bring a historic new economy and help solve
the problem of global warming.
The use of solar energy and wind power has grown by more than 30 percent
annually during the past five years, compared to 1 or 2 percent for fossil
fuels. Some regions in Europe now get as much as 20 percent of their
electricity from wind power alone. The World Health Organization's Global
Polio Eradication Initiative has reduced the number of polio cases from some
350,000 globally in 1988 to a few hundred per year today. The WHO also
halved the global prevalence of iodine deficiency in the last decade.
The Netherlands has achieved an 86 percent recycling rate for cars, while
Denmark has banned aluminum cans in favor of reusable glass bottles. The
building blocks are appearing for an economy whose materials circulate,
rather than migrate from mine to consumer to landfill. Micro-loans of as
little as $50 have helped millions of the world's poorest people, such as
the waste pickers of the Payatas landfill near Manila, to secure capital for
small enterprises, land and housing. In the United States, the Community
Reinvestment Act has helped push lending in poor U.S. neighborhoods from an
average of roughly $3 billion per year in the 1980s to $43 billion in 1997.
We do not deny the clear downward slope of many critical global trends. Some
5,500 children die each day from diseases linked to polluted food, air and
water. Bird extinctions are running at some 50 times the natural rate due to
habitat loss and other consequences of human activity. The global rate of
ice melting has more than doubled since 1988 and could raise sea levels by
27 centimeters by 2100. The difference between the good news and the bad
news boils down to our choices. Whether the success stories of the past
decade can be multiplied to the point at which they put global trends on a
sustainable course will be determined by where societies choose to put their
creative efforts. If we can build spacecraft powered by clean fuel cells
that emit only water vapor, why not build cars that run the same way? If we
can extract copper and other metals from deep within poisonous mines, why
not do so from more accessible landfills, which in the United States contain
a supply of copper equal to more than half of the stock currently in use. If
we can routinely protect tourists from malaria, why not do it for people who
live with the threat every day?
Political will is often the missing element in moving solutions from the
shelf to the street. Yet the will to build a sustainable world is emerging.
In 2001, Brazil and Germany announced major new commitments to the
development of renewable energy. Last year the state of California defied
U.S. government policy by announcing the world's first mandatory limits on
global warming emissions from cars. And just a few days ago Brazil's newly
inaugurated president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, suspended the purchase of
fighter planes for his country, declaring that combating hunger is a higher
priority. Political will is alive and well, at least in some quarters. When
exercised on behalf of people and the planet, it is proving surprisingly
potent. By learning from the scores of successful initiatives pursued in the
past decade, world leaders can begin to turn around many of the trends that
seem so intractable today. In doing so they could create a healthier and
more sustainable economy
44) INSURERS SHOULD FIGHT TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT by Kalliope Gourntis
International Herald
Tribune
January 7, 2003
Internet:
http://www.iht.com/articles/82403.html
The writer works for the insurance company Generali Hellas, a subsidiary of
Assicurazioni Generali.
The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, sent the global insurance industry
into a tailspin, with damages amounting to approximately $50 billion.
Insurers' share prices and capital reserves plunged to alarmingly low
levels. Before the industry could recover from these blows, Central and
Eastern Europe suffered unprecedented floods. The amount that insurers will
pay out for flood damage in the region is only a small part of the total
cost because only a small percentage of homes and businesses were covered
against floods. But the next time around may not be so inexpensive.
Most scientists accept that global warming and subsequent climate change are
primarily responsible for the increase in rainstorms and severe flooding.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its Third
Assessment Report on Climate Change, says: "An increase in climate
variability and some extreme events is projected. Models project changes in
frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events."
The insurance industry has drawn the same conclusions. According to Michael
Huber of the Center for Analysis of Risk and Regulation at the London School
of Economics, reinsurers and insurers have, for a while now, been pressing
for significantly higher premiums or the exclusion of coverage related to
extreme weather events. "This is because, in recent years, insurers have
made the connection between climate change and extreme weather conditions,"
Huber says.
Yet if the insurance industry's response to a new set of risks is to avoid
them, either by not accepting them or by pricing them at such rates that
they become unaffordable, then what purpose will insurance serve? Will
insurance companies become fair-weather business partners, there in the good
times, absent when things turn bad? Insurers have the chance to play a
proactive role in this stormy scenario, while at the same time protecting
their core interests and financial well-being.
An obvious first step is to follow the example of major energy companies and
automobile manufacturers. Both have been staunch lobbyists blocking
environmental protective measures and legislation. No doubt they have
contributed to the U.S. refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which calls
for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Insurers can sit on the other
side of the fence - lobbying hard in favor of legislation that would protect
the environment. Not only is it in their best interests to do so, it's their
responsibility. Insurance is meant to protect against unexpected loss.
A more proactive and direct alternative is for insurers to create a new
risk-assessment tool for environment-friendly behavior. For example, an
insurer could rate that a drug manufacturer's conduct based on how well it
handles, stores, and disposes of biological agents and chemicals that have
the potential to damage the environment. Insurers can work with other
experts to draw up industry-specific guidelines that evaluate companies'
environmental practices - and reward the best performers with lower premiums
for risks such as flood, storm, and other extreme weather events.
If a company takes proper measures to protect the environment this does not
necessarily reduce its chances of suffering flood damage, at least not in
the near future. But over the long term, what companies do today will affect
the extent and number of claims insurers pay out in the future as a result
of extreme weather events. Considering that of the top five European
insurers, four have been around since the 19th century and the fifth goes
back to the 18th century, it is safe to assume that they can afford to make
long-term investments. After all, the concept of taking out a policy today
and waiting a certain period before it acquires value is not foreign to the
insurance industry; nor is the fact that the earlier one buys a policy, the
greater the benefits to be had when it reaches maturity.
Insurers can reap many benefits by becoming the driving force behind
environmental policy. They will be protecting their own financial interests
and perhaps their very existence, not because they avoided risk but because
they helped minimize it. For years insurers have given advice and stressed
the need to plan for the future. Now, they have the chance to demonstrate
how it's done.
45) CLIMATE CHANGE "ADAPTATION": OPPORTUNITY AND THREAT FOR RIVERS by
Patrick
McCully
World Rivers Review.
January 2002
Internet: www.irn.org
Patrick McCully, is the Campaigns Director for the International Rivers
Network(IRN) and author of Silenced Rivers: The Ecology and Politics of
Large Dams <http://irn.org/pubs/paddy.html>
, co-published by Zed Books (London) and IRN in 1996.
The latest round of international climate talks, held in New Delhi in late
October, had almost as much emphasis on how to adapt to climate change as on
how to prevent it. Anything that deflects international attention from the
urgent need to cut climate pollution should be regarded with caution. Even
more so, when as with the issue of adaptation, it suits the interests of the
fossil fuel-addicted Bush Administration. "We're welcoming a focus on more
of a balance on adaptation versus mitigation," a senior US negotiator in New
Delhi told the New York Times.
Yet, under even the most wildly optimistic scenario for cutting climate
pollution, societies are going to have to adapt to its impacts. The
worsening droughts and floods scientists have warned about are already being
experienced, and there can be little doubt that much worse is on the way.
Most at risk are people who are directly dependent on ecosystems for their
survival - peasants, indigenous people and fisherfolk, as well as those
forced by poverty to live in zones at high risk from landslides and floods.
These are the people who are least responsible for climate pollution (and
thus can do least to prevent it) and who also can least afford the costs of
adaptation.
The arguments at Delhi over adaptation centered on who should provide how
much money to poor countries to pay for it. Three separate funds are being
set up to assist developing countries with climate change-related
activities, primarily adaptation. All the funds would be administered by the
Global Environment Facility, based in the headquarters of the World Bank in
Washington, DC. It still unclear how much will be paid into these funds.
However, the EU and other developed countries (with the notable exceptions
of the US and Japan) have promised $410 million a year in "new" climate
change funding starting in 2005. Whether this funding will actually appear -
and whether it will quietly be accompanied by cuts in other aid programs -
remains to be seen.
But even if there is little new money from aid budgets for adaptation, there
are likely to be lots of new adaptation projects. Some money will be
diverted from existing aid budgets, and some projects that would have gone
forward anyway will be relabeled as "adaptation" projects. While there was
lots of discussion about funding for adaptation, there was very little
discussion in Delhi of what adaptation might actually mean in practice.
Money and attention for adaptation to worsening floods and droughts could
theoretically help reduce the vulnerability of the poor to climate change.
But given past approaches to water management it could also prove highly
damaging to economies and rivers.
It is not overly cynical to foresee that bureaucrats in aid agencies and
water ministries will push for the same kinds of projects to adapt to global
warming as they have always pushed as responses to floods and droughts.
Business-as-usual in water management would mean "adaptation" funds going to
big dams, inter-basin water transfers, and flood-control embankments. Yet
these strategies have proved counterproductive in the past and are largely
responsible for the epidemic of water mismanagement that now affects almost
every part of the globe. More dams and embankments will also compound the
stress that climate change will put upon freshwater ecosystems.
A serious attempt to assist those countries and sectors of society most at
risk from climate change would instead focus on flood management strategies
including better watershed management and urban planning, wetland
restoration, flood shelters and early warning systems); rainwater harvesting
and, most important of all, reducing water demand through conservation and
efficiency. Adaptation to climate change is also for many countries going to
require diversification of electricity supply away from drought-vulnerable
hydropower.
These strategies would not only be much cheaper than the conventional
river-destroying approach to flood and water management, but they would also
work much better and thus save many lives. Perhaps most important of all,
such strategies would also bring great benefits even in the absence of any
drastic climate change. "Adaptation" threatens to become the next
"sustainable development" - an empty catch phrase that among other abuses is
used by aid bureaucrats to give legitimacy to destructive projects. Or it
could become a focus for efforts to reduce the vulnerability of societies to
climate change, while improving people's lives and regenerating rivers.
46) END OF YEAR EDITORIAL by Klaus Toepfer:
UNEP
Internet:
http://www.unep.org/home/Documents/2002_ED.htm
Klaus Toepfer is the Executive Director of the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)
2002 Marks the 30th Anniversary of UNEP. Has it been a Happy Birthday for
the Environment?Nairobi, December 2002 -We do not fully posses the telescope
of time to know how the year 2002 will be viewed by future generations. But
it is my hope that, when the historians' pencils are sharpened to weigh the
impact of the whirlwind of environment-related meetings, conferences and
summits, they may record that the second year of the new millennium and
UNEP's 30th anniversary was a defining moment in the long march towards a
more environmentally-sound, sustainable, healthier and fairer world.
It is too easy to view
events such as the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in
Johannesburg or the Finance for Development meeting in Monterrey, Mexico as
just another round of high level nibbles, of political get-togethers that
are merely prolonging the agony of the planet and the poor.
I believe we have, as a result of the negotiations and agreements that have
marked 2002 and culminating in the WSSD, witnessed some real stirrings of
intent, some clear routes of progress, that can transform the fine words of
previous years and decades into real and genuine action. The Plan of
Implementation, and the many partnerships, agreed in South Africa has
targets and it has time-tables on issues such as fisheries and wildlife to
ones on drinking water and sanitation. It is already focusing the work of
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) along with many other
organizations and groups across the whole spectrum of society. Indeed when
environment ministers from across the globe meet at UNEP's headquarters in
Nairobi, Kenya, in early February, 2003 the WSSD Plan and the challenge of
taking it forward, of delivering real and meaningful results, will be at the
centre of the talks, at the centre of the decisions.
At WSSD, financial
commitments were made in support of the Plan of Implementation, partnerships
and the Millennium Declaration goals in the areas of water and sanitation.
These include $970 million from the United States some 21 water- and
sanitation-related initiatives worth at least US$20 million.
Similarly, the Plan of
Implementation commitment on energy access will be accompanied by financial
commitments from the EU of $700 million, the US of $43 million and 32
separate partnership initiatives worth up to US$26 million.
Optimism also comes
from the decision by Canada to ratify the Kyoto Protocol on climate change.
The eyes of the world are now on Russia to put its pen to this paper so it
can come into force. Meanwhile the new spirit of cooperation, the new
vision, espoused by African leaders and ministers in the guise of the New
Partnership for African Development or Nepad give us a new start for this
most wondrous of Continents, from where the human race took its first
unsteady steps towards the diversity of civilisations and cultures we see
today. Many African countries recognise that, only through partnership with
each other, can a new dawn for this Continent come. There is also a real
recognition that developed nations, committing funds to assist developing
ones, need re-assurance that the cash will be well and effectively spent.
WSSD may have been a milestone but should not be seen in isolation from
events such as the Doha, Qatar, trade talks and the Monterrey, Mexico
Finance for Development meeting. I am also particularly delighted over the
outcome of our Global Judges Symposium held just prior to the Summit.
Strengthening the use, development and awareness of such laws is one of the
keys needed to unlock the environment for development agenda.
The International Year
of the Mountains, ending in the summit in Bishkek where funds were pledged
to clean up old nuclear dumps in Central Asia, was I believe a success. The
International Year of Eco Tourism with its summit in Quebec, has given us
some good pointers as to how we can match the modern enthusiasm for tourism
and leisure with conserving nature and generating income for local people.
However we clearly need to urgently re-visit this issue to chart a more
robust and effective course.
UNEP this year also published two land-mark publications-the Global
Environment Outlook 3 and the Africa Environment Outlook. These have not
only contributed to our understanding of the threats and improvements
human-kind is creating for life on Earth, but also are building strong
networks of researchers and centres in developing countries where
environmental and developmental science is flourishing.
Working closely with
the Global Environment Facility, the multi billion dollar environment fund,
we have launched important new projects on trying to restore damaged and
degraded drylands in Africa to unraveling the mysteries of the humble
organisms that populate and bring fertility to the soils of tropical
countries. We are also partners in the largest ever project undertaken to
build the skills of developing nations in the area of genetically modified
crops and foods. At the Global Ministerial Environment Forum in Cartagena,
Columbia, countries agreed a new, strengthened UNEP and it is gratifying to
see that our funding is on the rise from a wider group of nations. This is a
vote for the environment and a vote for UNEP's improved ability to deliver.
We have every intention to live up to our new and increasing
responsibilities, not only in this 30th year of UNEP's birth but in the
months, years and decades to come.
47) AMERICAN CONGRESS CAN AFFECT GLOBAL WARMING by James Gustave Speth
YaleGlobal,
December 27, 2002
Internet:
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=662
James Gustave Speth is Dean, Yale School of Forestry and Environmental
Studies.
Future generations may look back on President Bush's victory in the 2002
Congressional elections and see a casualty other than the Democrats. In the
world beyond 2050 - our children's world - far-reaching shifts in the
earth's climate could easily be a paramount concern. Yet the Republican
Party's mid-term triumph could doom for another protracted period efforts to
forge a responsible U.S. policy on global climate change - a further delay
we cannot afford. In the Senate, outgoing environment committee chair James
M. Jeffords has authored a bill to control power plant emissions of carbon
dioxide, the most important climate-changing gas, as well as three other air
pollutants. Electricity generation accounts for roughly one-third of U.S.
carbon dioxide emissions. Transportation is responsible for another third,
and efforts have been made in Congress to increase auto fuel economy.
President Bush opposes both measures, and the Republican domination of the
Congress resulting from the 2002 elections does not auger well for either,
nor for other climate legislation with any bite in it.
We have known since the
Carter Administration that global climate change was a serious threat
requiring, among other things, new energy policies here and abroad. As early
as 1979, the National Academy of Sciences warned that "a wait and see policy
may mean waiting until it is too late." And a 1980 report from the
President's Council on Environmental Quality urged that "the global warming
problem should become a factor in making energy policy and not simply the
subject of scientific investigation." It is easy to forget how long this
issue has been around. U.S. leadership is particularly important given that
about 30 percent of the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide - the
principal greenhouse gas - has come from U.S. sources. Yet every President
since has badly neglected the issue, and recent administrations - Democratic
and Republican - have actively sought to weaken international efforts to
control the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Precious time has
been lost, and devastating climate change becomes ever more likely.
How serious could these
changes be over this century? The best current estimate is that, absent
major corrective action (especially by the principal polluters), global
warming in this century could wreak widespread havoc, including in the
United States. For instance, it would make it impossible for about half of
U.S. lands to sustain the types of plants and animals that now inhabit them.
A huge portion of the United States' protected areas - large and small - is
now threatened. In one projection, the much-loved maple, beech, and birch
forests of New England will disappear in this century. Another projection
shows that much of the Southeast will become a huge grassland savanna too
hot and dry to support forests. Extreme weather events, rise in sea level,
coral bleaching, and new public health risks are among the other predicted
consequences.
There is a number that
future generations will focus on like we follow quarterly economic reports:
the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, measured in parts per
million (ppm). The environmental consequences just noted are what could
unfold if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rises from today's 370
ppm to about 700 ppm by 2100. (The pre-industrial level was about 280 ppm.).
The central goal of the international climate protection treaty signed ten
years ago is to prevent this number from rising to a "dangerous" level. An
important effort to define "dangerous" was recently undertaken by Brian
O'Neill and Michael Oppenheimer at Brown and Princeton Universities
respectively. Published in the journal Science, the article concluded that
it would indeed be dangerous to risk catastrophic sea level rise associated
with the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet or the disruption of major
ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream. To contain these risks, O'Neill and
Oppenheimer conclude that nations should prevent carbon dioxide
concentrations from exceeding about 450 ppm. In a business-as-usual
scenario, we are scheduled to reach this level by about 2030. To achieve the
ambitious goal of halting the buildup of carbon dioxide at 450 ppm or below,
the authors further suggest that compliance with the Kyoto Protocol would be
enormously helpful. The Kyoto Protocol, which President Bush rejects but
which Europe, Japan, Russia and Canada now support, would require that U.S.
carbon dioxide emissions be reduced to seven percent below its 1990 level by
2010.
Conventional wisdom
holds that complying with Kyoto's goals would be prohibitively costly, and
no doubt full U.S. compliance would come with a significant price tag at
this late date. In an earlier era, the United States did one thing that is
now needed. During the 1973-1986 period, as a result of oil price shocks and
energy efficiency policies, overall energy efficiency in the United States
improved by an annual rate of 2.5 percent. It is often thought that these
were years of poor economic performance, but between 1970 and 1988, the U.S.
economy expanded at a real rate of 3.3 percent per year. Comparable
efficiency gains, together with switching to natural gas, afforestation, and
emissions trading, would allow the United States to participate meaningfully
in the Kyoto process. There are rays of hope, including a public
increasingly awake to the issue. Perhaps the brightest of these rays is that
over half the states are pursuing initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. New Hampshire has legislation to cut power plant emissions of
carbon dioxide, and, despite the Bush administration's opposition to the
legislation, California has moved to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from
auto exhausts, to mention two leading examples. If more states go in these
directions, Congressional action will not be far behind. The earth's
climate should not and need not become an accidental casualty of the
American electoral process.
48) BIG RETHINK NEEDED ON ELECTRICITY by John Blakeley
New Zealand Herald
December 20, 2002
Internet:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3048005&thesection=news&thesubsection=dialogue
John Blakeley, a research fellow at Unitec, is convenor of the Sustainable
Energy Forum.
As we enter summer, the prospect of winter electricity shortages may seem a
long way off. But the New Zealand Energy Conference in October was told that
one of our key challenges over the next few years lies in maintaining secure
electricity supply. Demand is continuing to increase, the Maui gas field is
running down and there is an ever-present risk of water shortages in our
hydro-generation system in a dry year.
Over the next two years
the output from Maui may start to diminish significantly and it could run
out about three years after that. In fact, the output from Maui is starting
to decline and it is losing the capacity to supply large amounts of
additional gas for electricity generation in a dry year, such as we
experienced in 1992 and 2001.
The replacement for
Maui will be several smaller gas fields, but the rate of discovery of new
gas in the past few years does not give much confidence that new fields will
be able to fully replace Maui in the longer term. If electricity demand
continues to increase, coal may have to be considered as a substitute for
natural gas in thermal power stations. The consequences would be an increase
in carbon dioxide emissions for each unit of electricity generated, and
other environmental issues to be remedied. One obvious step for the
Government would be to take a more active leadership role and seek to limit,
or even reverse, increases in electricity demand which have averaged 1.5 to
2 per cent annually over the past decade.
This would have an
immediate national benefit of limiting price rises, since we are often told
that the price of all electricity will have to rise before any generating
company builds the next big power station.
Major industries processing and adding value to farming and forestry
products have often said that significant price rises will help to destroy
an international competitive advantage that New Zealand has in relatively
low energy costs. At the energy conference, the Energy Minister, Pete
Hodgson, said that most businesses could cut their energy costs by 20 to 30
per cent through efficiencies. The same is true for owners of domestic
houses, especially if they were prepared to install a solar water-heating
system.
If the Government were to actively promote a national campaign for zero
increase in electricity demand, there might be surprising benefits. But that
presents a conflict of interest because the Government owns three of our
four major electricity companies and thus has a vested interest in seeing
these companies grow and generate increasing profits.
The situation is
further complicated by our ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, under which
we must seek to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One obvious way to do this
is to more actively promote conservation and more efficient use of energy
and more renewable energy generation. In October, the Government set a
target for additional renewable generation by 2012 equivalent to 30 times
the amount of electricity used annually by a city the size of Nelson. At the
time, Mr Hodgson said the target was challenging but within reach. But it
may not be achievable with present Government policies. Renewable energy
projects are often smaller ones, such as wind farms or smaller hydro or
geothermal developments. These tend to be promoted by smaller, innovative
companies. Large generating companies favour major projects.
Until the Government
deals with the conflict it has between wanting to receive increasing profits
from its large generating companies and wanting to limit electricity prise
rises, maintain security of supply and meet its commitment to the Kyoto
Protocol, we will not be heading towards a sustainable energy future. A
first step towards resolving this conflict might be for the Government to
state that, unlike its other wholly owned businesses which are expected, as
cash cows, to increase their sales and profits and give a good return on
investment, the three electricity companies have a different set of
objectives. Perhaps these could be to take some responsibility for
maintaining security of supply, to try to reduce electricity sales by active
promotion of conservation and efficiency, and to require that these
companies' new investments in generation use renewable energy. Unless and
until such action is taken, it will remain easy to think that the
Government's commitment to the Kyoto Protocol is based more on possessing
large carbon credits from pine forests than a genuine commitment to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions.
The Government's thinking must change. Generating and retailing electricity
should no longer be seen as a free-market activity such as producing and
selling baked beans. It is a vital national service that must soon face up
to four big challenges: maintaining an electricity price that is
comparatively low internationally, so our export industries retain a
competitive advantage; responding to the running down of the Maui gas field;
maintaining security of supply, especially in a dry winter; and committing
to the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Greater emphasis
on the need for more conservation and efficiency in electricity use is at
the heart of a solution to all these challenges.
49) WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2002: GLOBAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD, RETURN TO EL NIÑO CONDITIONS
WMO
December 17, 2002
Internet:
http://www.wmo.ch/web/Press/Press684.pdf
GENEVA, 17 December (WMO) - The global mean surface temperature for 2002 is
expected to be approximately 0.50 °C above the 1961-90 annual mean value,
according to records maintained by Members of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO). Consequently, 2002 will supplant last year (2001) as the
second warmest in the instrumental record. The warmest year in the 1860 to
present record for land and sea surface areas remains 1998. The ten warmest
years have all occurred since 1987, nine since 1990. While the trend toward
warmer globally averaged surface temperatures has been uneven over the
course of the last century, the trend for the period since 1976 is roughly
three times that for the past 100 years as a whole The rise in global
average surface temperatures since 1900 now exceeds 0.6° C.
El Niño conditions returned to the tropical Pacific over the course of 2002.
The potential for transitioning from more neutral to El Niño conditions was
evident by the end of 2001. By midyear 2002, characteristic El Niño sea
surface temperature and then sea level pressure patterns became well
established. In the latter half of 2002, climate anomalies in many regions
were broadly consistent with a maturing El Niño episode of moderate
intensity. Warm (positive) sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical
Pacific and indeed across much of the land and sea surface of the globe in
general contributed to the near record temperature ranking for the year.
REGIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
Though the magnitude of the present El Niño episode is smaller than the
1997-98 event, the transition from neutral to El Niño conditions was
nevertheless accompanied by a coincident transition in climate anomalies
across some regions of the world. This was especially true across regions of
the western Pacific. In the Southwest Pacific, nations in the more northerly
latitudes of the region (closer to the equator) transitioned from drier than
normal conditions before May 2002 to wetter than normal conditions after the
onset of El Niño. In September, some stations in the Republic of Kiribati
received rainfall in excess of 10 times the average value. Indonesia, Papua
New Guinea, New Caledonia, Tonga, Niue and the southern Cook Islands,
however, recorded well below average precipitation in some or all of the
months following May 2002. The north of the South Island of New Zealand was
drier than normal, while the west and south was wetter than normal. In
Australia, near normal rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures observed
in January and February 2002 gave way to warm and dry conditions beginning
in March. Widespread drier and warmer than normal conditions persisted
thereafter. The pattern of dry conditions in the southern and western
Southwest Pacific and wet conditions in the northern Southwest Pacific is
typical of the region during El Niño episodes.
Widespread warmer than normal conditions for the year as a whole occurred
across most of Asia, especially in Mongolia and regions immediately to the
north. Annual precipitation totals were above normal from central Asia
eastward to northern China and the Korean Peninsula. Monthly mean
temperatures in East Africa Region were generally higher than average for
much of the year. In southern Tanzania, heavy rains were reported in January
and widespread near normal to wet conditions were found across much of the
country through February and March 2002. Wet conditions were also observed
in much of western and central Kenya and parts of Uganda in March and May
where some locations recorded the wettest or near wettest conditions since
1961. Heavy rain also occurred during October and November in Uganda. The
regions of central and southern Ethiopia, however, experienced a general
failure of the rains in period from June to September.
After a mild 2001-02 winter in many areas, especially in the Great Lakes
region, Canada recorded its fifth coldest spring overall. In parts of
western Canada, spring was the coldest on record. Moisture deficits present
at the end of 2001 in much of western regions of Canada and the United
States were exacerbated by less than normal precipitation during winter and
spring 2002. In Sweden, the average temperature in all months of the year
through September 2002 was above normal and the warmest summer ever in the
period 1860 to the present was reported. Heavy precipitation occurred in
parts of the northeast region of Spain during the Northern Hemisphere summer
and autumn. Persistent high temperatures were observed in June in
Switzerland. Abnormally high temperatures were observed during April across
India and a prolonged heatwave over northern regions from mid-April through
the third week of May caused hundreds of fatalities. On 10 May the maximum
temperature at Gannavaram reached 49°C.
TYPHOONS, HURRICANES AND FLOODS
During the first two weeks of August, exceptionally heavy rains in parts of
central Europe (including Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria, Romania,
Slovakia) caused flooding of historic proportions, notably on the Elbe and
Danube rivers. More than 100 deaths were reported with more than 450 000
forced to evacuate. Damage was estimated at US$ 9 billion in Germany alone.
A number of rainfall records were set and the flood exceeded all historic
levels in some places. In southern France, severe flooding led to 24 deaths
and induced damage estimated near US $1 billion in September. The greatest
precipitation total in the region was nearly 690 mm, which fell in roughly a
24 hour period. In East Africa, flooding was observed in southern Tanzania
in January and in Kenya and Uganda from March to May 2002. Flooding was also
reported in Uganda during October and November 2002. The flooding episodes
resulted in a number of impacts including land slides and loss of life.
During the Atlantic hurricane season (June November) only four tropical
storm systems developed to hurricane strength. Nevertheless, twice the
normal number of storm systems (eight) affected the United States, including
Hurricane Lili, the first land-falling hurricane to strike there since the
1999 hurricane season. September 2002 was also the most active tropical
storm month on record in the Atlantic Basin.
In October, Hurricane Kenna made landfall near San Blas, Mexico. The storm
was the third strongest in terms of wind intensity to strike Mexico from the
Pacific and resulted in three deaths, thousands of homeless and tens of
millions of dollars (US) in damage. Typhoon Rusa made landfall on the Korean
Peninsula at the end of August resulting in flooding and more than 240 dead
or missing. The one-day rainfall total of approximately 870 mm set a
national rainfall record for records that date from 1911.
The Asian summer monsoon and several typhoons brought heavy rains to the
region from southern China to the Indochina peninsula. Flooding along the
Changjiang and Mekong rivers resulted in several hundreds of deaths. The
monsoon in eastern India, Nepal and Bangladesh was also active, leading to
severe flooding in parts of the region and about 1000 fatalities. At the end
of October, a powerful wind storm caused damage across northern Europe, from
southern England to the Baltic regions. Wind speeds over 140 km/hour were
reported at numerous locations.
DROUGHT PRESENT IN MANY REGIONS
The seasonal rainfall
during the summer (southwest) monsoon (June-September) in India as a whole
was 19% below normal, qualifying 2002 as the first all-India drought since
1987. Rainfall deficits during July were most noteworthy, at a historical
low of 49% below normal. Remarkable recovery in rainfall occurred in August
and prevented the situation from worsening. In November, during the
northeast monsoon season, good rainfall amounts were widely reported. In
Afghanistan, spring rains brought some relief to the four-year drought.
Across West Africa, precipitation was below normal in the Sahel and the
Guinea Coast region throughout much of their wet season. In the Sahel,
countries in the far west, especially Mauritania, Senegal, and Gambia,
accumulated the greatest rainfall deficits, with some locations receiving
only 25% to 50% of their normal rainfall by the end of September. In the
Greater Horn of Africa region, drought conditions that date to mid-1998
continued unabated in parts of the region, especially in central and
southern Ethiopia.
For the second Northern
Hemisphere summer in a row, dry conditions were experienced across
much of Central America and parts of Mexico. As in the case of the severe
drought last summer
(2001), the countries most affected this year were Honduras, Nicaragua, El
Salvador, and Guatemala where significant agricultural impacts were
reported.
In the eight months from March to October 2002 approximately 70% of the
Australian continent received rainfall totals in the lowest 10% of all March
to October periods since 1900. Nearly all remaining areas of Australia
experienced drier than average conditions. Dry conditions were accompanied
by higher than average maximum temperatures. The Australia-wide average
maximum temperature during the Southern Hemisphere autumn, winter and spring
of 2002 was the highest since high quality temperature records commenced in
1950. In Canada, drought particularly affected central and northern areas of
the Prairie Provinces, somewhat north of the region most impacted in 2001.
In the United States, drought conditions
worsened in the west, but some improvement was seen in the east. Persistent
dry conditions in the western United States contributed to the second worst
wildfire season in history.
ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE
During 2002, the
Antarctic ozone hole was the smallest since 1988. In late September an
unprecedented event occurred when the ozone hole split into two. The two
holes were relatively small and each contained a core depleted of more than
50% of its ozone. The ozone hole briefly intensified until mid-October, but
then disappeared in early November. Not only was the 2002 ozone hole the
smallest since 1988, it was also the shallowest and the shortest lived. The
size, depth and persistence of the ozone hole varies from year to year owing
to natural changes in the meteorological conditions in the stratosphere.
ARCTIC SEA ICE
The extent of the sea
ice cover in the Arctic Ocean in September 2002 was lower than in any
previous September in the satellite observation period, which dates to 1978.
Throughout this period of record, there has been a general downward trend in
the Northern Hemisphere summer minimum arctic sea ice extent, but there is
also considerable variability in minimum extent from year to year. The total
area of surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet during 2002 also was
reported to be greater than in other known records.
***Information Sources
This preliminary
information for 2002 is based on observations up to the end of November from
a
network of land-based weather stations, ships and buoys. The data are
collected and disseminated on a continuing basis by the National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the WMO Member countries.
It should be noted that
following established practice, WMOs global temperature analyses are based
on data sets maintained by the Hadley Centre of the Met Office, UK, and the
Climatic Research Unit, East Anglia University, UK as well as another
authoritative global surface temperature data set, which is maintained by
the USA Department of Commerces National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). Results from these two data sets are comparable; both
project that 2002 will be the second warmest year globally.
More
extensive, updated information will be made available in the annual WMO
Statement
on the Status of the Global Climate in 2002, to be published in late March
2003.
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