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AGENDA ITEM 3 — STRENGTHENING COMMITMENTS IN ARTICLES 4.2 (a) AND (b)
The US said that analysis and assessment should be an integral part of the process but are only a means to a course of action. The AGBM 2 agenda is missing a review of historic trends and projections of future emissions. This would provide a better understanding of national differences, which should precede a discussion of next steps. He requested that the Secretariat annotate its listing of Annex I Parties' measures with comments on the effectiveness of each measure, with the resulting document to be discussed at AGBM 3. He also requested a presentation of the IPCC's quantified emission reduction objectives and scenarios at AGBM 3, and he proposed an informal session on analyses and costs and measures necessary to meet the objectives.
The US presented a series of slides on past and projected emissions trends, noting that trends varied year-to-year by region and country based on factors such as population, economic growth, weather, fuel use and energy consumption sector. Emission measures that use cumulative or average emissions would take better account of this variability. He noted that long-term predictions of inter- and intra-regional trends also showed variations, and that the greenhouse forcing of developing countries' emissions would exceed that of developed countries by the middle of the next century, so that global solutions, varying by region, were necessary.
SPAIN, on behalf of the EU, submitted an outline for a protocol or legal instrument. The outline does not include proposals on policies, measures, objectives or time-frames, but is organized on three principles: consistency with prior AGBM discussions; creating a dynamic instrument that can develop over time; and linking measures to existing Convention provisions where they apply. The outline includes six articles: commitments by developed and other Annex I Parties, including a section on voluntary application by non-Annex I Parties; commitments by all Parties; review of commitments; cross-references to FCCC articles; amendment procedures, including simplified procedures for annexes; and final clauses. It would include three annexes of policies and measures: those applicable to all Annex I Parties; those agreed as high priority in national programmes; and those to be considered in national programmes, as appropriate. He said the EU is committed to a combined approach with policies and measures as well as quantified reductions within specified time-frames.
The PHILIPPINES, on behalf of the G-77 and China, said that the US presentation shifts the focus from the AGBM process. Regarding historical cumulative emissions, she said that history does not begin until 1984 according to the US presentation.
The RUSSIAN FEDERATION said any new developments by the AGBM should not run counter to the economic interests of Parties, but should ensure their right to sustainable development and improve the environment as a whole. He said that the Russian Federation devotes attention to emissions in the energy sectors and strives to increase forest cover. He said that the Secretariat's compilation does not reflect the need to increase absorption or safe fuel use. He supported determining priorities and narrowing the list of policies and measures.
CHINA criticized the US presentation for changing the direction of the AGBM, failing to link development with the existing economic structure of a country and considering only the industrial development that has occurred since 1990. He said the AGBM should abide by the BM principles and ensure that analysis and assessment do not depart from them.
CANADA provided an update on the work of the Annex I Experts' Group on the UNFCCC, formerly called the Joint OECD/IEA Project on National Communications. He highlighted the Project on Policies and Measures for Common Action that will broadly assess the relative potential of a range of policies and measures for common action by Annex I Parties. At its last meeting, the group considered over 100 measures and selected roughly a dozen for further scoping. These measures cover the energy supply, transport, utilities, renewables, agriculture and forestry sectors in combination with a range of voluntary, regulatory, financial and economic instruments. Taking into account the views of Parties expressed during AGBM 2, the Group will next meet to select measures for in-depth analysis.