Published by the International
Institute for Sustainable Development
(IISD) Vol. 12 No. 125 Friday,
17 March 2000
SUMMARY OF WORKSHOPS ON ARTICLE 4.8 AND 4.9 OF
THE UNFCCC: ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IMPACT OF
IMPLEMENTATION OF RESPONSE MEASURES
9-11 AND 13-15 MARCH 2000
Two workshops on Article 4.8 and 4.9 of the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) were held from 9-11 and 13-15
March 2000 at the Internationales Kongresszentrum Bundehaus in
Bonn, Germany. The FCCC Secretariat and the Chairs of the FCCC
subsidiary bodies organized these workshops. Approximately 85
participants attended each workshop, including representatives of
governments, intergovernmental organizations, non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) and academic institutions.
The first workshop was held from 9-11 March to consider initial
actions to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing
country Parties and the specific needs and special situations of
the least developed countries (LDCs) arising from the adverse
effects of climate change. Participants heard presentations and
engaged in discussions on the adverse effects of climate change on
food security, water resources, economic activities, coastal zones
and human health. They also considered initial actions related to
funding, insurance and the transfer of technology to meet the
needs and circumstances of developing countries. Other issues
addressed included actions to: enhance capacity for monitoring,
systematic observation and vulnerability assessment in developing
countries; build capacity in environmental management and
integrated assessment; and identify adaptation options and
facilitate appropriate adaptation.
The second workshop was held from 13-15 March to consider the
impact of the implementation of response measures to climate
change. Participants heard presentations and engaged in
discussions on methodological approaches and what actions are
necessary under the FCCC relating to the impact of implementation
of response measures on, inter alia, terms of trade,
international capital flows and developmental efforts, in
accordance with FCCC Article 4.8 and 4.9 and in the light of
matters related to Kyoto Protocol Article 3.14 (adverse effects).
Participants also considered the nature, content and sources of
information required in relation to this issue, procedures and
modalities for the provision of information, and what actions are
needed, including those relating to funding, insurance and the
transfer of technology. The specific needs and special situations
of LDCs were considered.
The outcome of these workshops will be a report from the Chairs
of the FCCC subsidiary bodies that will provide an input for
discussions on these issues at the twelfth and thirteenth sessions
of the subsidiary bodies (SB-12 and SB-13), to be held in June and
September 2000 respectively. Negotiations at SB-12 and SB-13 will
lead to a decision at the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the
FCCC (COP-6), to be held in The Hague in from 13-24 November 2000.
A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FCCC AND THE
KYOTO PROTOCOL
The FCCC was adopted on 9 May 1992 and opened for signature at
the UN Conference on Environment and Development in June 1992. The
FCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994, 90 days after receipt of
the 50th ratification. It has currently received 181 instruments
of ratification.
COP-1: The first Conference of the Parties to the FCCC (COP-1)
took place in Berlin from 28 March - 7 April 1995. In addition to
addressing a number of important issues related to the future of
the FCCC, delegates reached agreement on the adequacy of
commitments and adopted the "Berlin Mandate." Delegates
agreed to establish an open-ended Ad Hoc Group on the
Berlin Mandate (AGBM) to begin a process toward appropriate action
for the period beyond 2000, including the strengthening of
commitments by Annex I Parties (Parties with developed economies
or economies in transition) through the adoption of a protocol or
other legal instrument. COP-1 also requested the Secretariat to
make arrangements for sessions of the subsidiary bodies on
scientific and technological advice (SBSTA) and implementation (SBI).
SBSTA serves as the link between the information provided by
competent international bodies, and the policy-oriented needs of
the COP. SBI was created to develop recommendations to assist the
COP in the review and assessment of the implementation of the
Convention and in the preparation and implementation of its
decisions.
AD HOC GROUP ON THE BERLIN MANDATE: The AGBM met eight times
between August 1995 and COP-3 in December 1997. During the first
three sessions, delegates focused on analyzing and assessing
possible policies and measures to strengthen the commitments of
Annex I Parties, how Annex I countries might distribute or share
new commitments and whether commitments should take the form of an
amendment or a protocol. AGBM-4, which coincided with COP-2 in
Geneva in July 1996, completed its in-depth analysis of the likely
elements of a protocol and States appeared ready to prepare a
negotiating text. At AGBM-5, which met in December 1996, delegates
recognized the need to decide whether or not to permit Annex I
Parties to use mechanisms that would provide them with flexibility
in meeting their quantified emissions limitation and reduction
objectives (QELROs).
As the protocol was drafted during the sixth and seventh
sessions of the AGBM, in March and August 1997, respectively,
delegates "streamlined" a framework compilation text by
merging or eliminating some overlapping provisions within the
myriad of proposals. Much of the discussion centered on a proposal
from the EU for a 15% cut in a "basket" of three
greenhouse gases (GHG) by the year 2010 compared to 1990 emission
levels. In October 1997, as AGBM-8 began, US President Bill
Clinton included a call for "meaningful participation"
by developing countries in the negotiating position he announced
in Washington. In response, the G-77/China distanced itself from
attempts to draw developing countries into agreeing to new
commitments.
COP-3: The Third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) was held
from 1-11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. Over 10,000 participants,
including representatives from governments, IGOs, NGOs and the
media, attended the Conference, which included a high-level
segment featuring statements from over 125 ministers. Following a
week and a half of intense formal and informal negotiations,
Parties to the FCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol on 11 December
1997.
In the Protocol, Annex I Parties to the FCCC agreed to
commitments with a view to reducing their overall emissions of six
GHGs by at least 5% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. The
Protocol also established emissions trading, "joint
implementation" (JI) between developed countries, and a
"clean development mechanism" (CDM) to encourage joint
emissions reduction projects between developed and developing
countries. To date, 84 countries have signed and 22 have ratified
the Protocol. The Protocol will enter into force 90 days after 55
States, including Annex I Parties representing at least 55% of the
total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990, ratify it.
COP-4: The Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-4) was held
from 2-13 November 1998 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, with over
5,000 participants in attendance. During the two-week meeting,
delegates deliberated decisions for the COP during SBI-9 and
SBSTA-9. Issues related to the Protocol were considered in joint
SBI/SBSTA sessions. A high-level segment, which heard statements
from over 100 ministers and heads of delegation, was convened on
Thursday, 12 November. Following hours of high-level closed-door
negotiations and a final plenary session, delegates adopted the
Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA). Under BAPA, the Parties
declared their determination to strengthen the implementation of
the FCCC and prepare for the future entry into force of the
Protocol. The BAPA contains the Parties' resolution to demonstrate
substantial progress on: the financial mechanism; the development
and transfer of technology; the implementation of FCCC Articles
4.8 and 4.9, as well as Protocol Articles 2.3 and 3.14 (adverse
effects); activities implemented jointly (AIJ); the mechanisms of
the Protocol; and the preparations for the first Conference of the
Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Protocol
(COP/ MOP-1). On the issue of adverse effects, delegates to COP-4
agreed on a programme of work that included provision for an
expert workshop, to be held in September 1999.
SBI-10 AND SBSTA-10: The subsidiary bodies to the FCCC held
their tenth sessions in Bonn, Germany, from 31 May - 11 June 1999,
and began the process of fulfilling the BAPA. SBI discussed, inter
alia, administrative and financial matters and non-Annex I
(developing country Party) communications. SBSTA considered topics
such as Annex I communications, methodological issues, the
development and transfer of technology, and adverse effects. SBI
and SBSTA jointly considered the mechanisms of the Protocol, AIJ
and compliance.
In its consideration of adverse effects, SBSTA adopted the
terms of reference for the expert workshop agreed to at COP-4. The
workshop was to identify: factors that would determine the adverse
effects of climate change and the impacts of implementing response
measures; and existing information gaps, needs and views on
methodologies. The workshop was also tasked with considering the
specific needs of the least developed countries, as well as issues
raised in national submissions and communications.
WORKSHOP ON IMPLEMENTATION OF FCCC ARTICLE 4.8 AND 4.9 (ADVERSE
EFFECTS): Under the guidance of SBSTA Chair Kok Kee Chow
(Malaysia) and SBI Vice-Chair Mohammad Reza Salamat (Iran), the
workshop on adverse effects was held from 21 - 24 September 1999
in Bonn. The workshop included expert presentations followed by
panel discussions addressing the policy-related implications of
the information presented. Regarding preliminary actions, some
participants suggested that the policies and measures reported by
Annex I Parties and the projected actions to implement the
Protocol be examined to analyze potential impacts on the economies
of the oil producing and other developing countries.
In this context, it was suggested that the FCCC subsidiary
bodies continue to examine information needed to minimize the
adverse social, environmental and economic impacts of Annex I
Parties response measures on developing countries, including:
tax restructuring to reflect the carbon content of fuels; measures
to discourage the production of fossil fuels and nuclear energy;
compensation; and assistance to developing countries, including
increasing investment, to help them diversify their economies.
Other participants said the uncertainties associated with the
impact of implementing response measures are such that
consideration of specific actions was premature. They noted that
such actions under the Protocol would be considered at the COP
serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Protocol at its first
session (COP/MOP-1). They also recalled that compensation was not
provided for under the FCCC or the Protocol. Some participants
stressed the need to identify and analyze initial actions to meet
the specific needs and concerns of developing countries arising
from the adverse effects of climate change and the impact of
response measures.
COP-5: The Fifth Conference of the Parties (COP-5) met in Bonn,
from 25 October - 5 November 1999. With over 3000 participants in
attendance and 165 Parties represented, delegates continued their
work toward meeting the two-year deadline set out in the BAPA for
strengthening FCCC implementation and preparing for the future
entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. Ninety-three ministers and
other heads of delegation addressed COP-5 during a high-level
segment held from 2-3 November. During its last two days, COP-5
adopted 32 draft decisions and conclusions on, inter alia,
the review of the implementation of commitments and other FCCC
provisions, and preparations for COP/MOP-1.
On adverse effects, the COP adopted decision 12/CP.5 on FCCC
Article 4.8 and 4.9 and Protocol Article 3.14 (FCCC/CP/1999/6/
Add.1). The decision recognized that the identification of initial
actions necessary to address the adverse effects of climate change
and/ or the impact of the implementation of response measures
needs to be based on sufficient information and analysis within a
clearly defined process. The COP decided that the process of
implementation of FCCC Articles 4.8 and 4.9, as established by
decisions 3/CP.3 and 5/ CP.4, should, inter alia, continue
and gather information on initial actions needed to address the
specific needs and concerns of developing countries and LDCs
arising from climate change and/or the impact of the
implementation of response measures, as well as identify what
actions are necessary under the Convention relating to funding,
insurance and transfer of technology to meet the specific needs
and concerns of developing countries and LDCs. It further decided
that SB-12 would continue consideration of the implementation of
FCCC Article 4.8 and 4.9, including consideration of the extent of
developing countries' efforts to diversify their national
economies and of how the international community could best
support such efforts. The COP decided to organize two workshops
under the guidance of the Chairs of the subsidiary bodies: one on
the consideration of initial actions needed to meet the specific
needs and concerns of developing country Parties, and the specific
needs and special situations of LDCs, arising from the adverse
effects of climate change; and another on the methodological
approaches and actions necessary to address the impact of the
implementation of response measures on, inter alia, terms
of trade, international capital flows and development efforts. The
decision stated that the two workshops should be organized in two
consecutive but equal time periods, before 31 March 2000.
REPORT OF THE WORKSHOP on adverse effects of
climatE chANGE
SBSTA Chair Harald Dovland (Norway) opened the meeting on 9
March and noted that this workshop was the result of a decision
taken at the Fifth Conference of the Parties to the FCCC (COP-5).
He stated that, under the COP-5 decision, this workshop would
consider initial actions to meet the specific needs and concerns
of developing country Parties and the specific needs and special
situations of LDCs arising from the adverse effects of climate
change. Issues to be addressed included: enhancing capacity in
developing countries for monitoring, systematic observation and
vulnerability assessment; building capacity in environmental
management and integrated assessment; and identifying and
facilitating adaptation options where near-term climate change
impacts are understood and adaptation measures are feasible.
Chair Dovland said organizers had tried to ensure fair
geographic distribution and a balance between developed and
developing countries in setting their invitation list for this
workshop. He noted that the workshops outcome will be a report
from the Chairs of the FCCC subsidiary bodies that lists the main
points and issues raised by participants. The report will contain
two sections. The first will relate to this workshop, while the
second will cover the workshop on the impact of the implementation
of response measures, scheduled for 13-15 March. This report will
be presented at the Twelfth Meeting of the Subsidiary Bodies
(SB-12) in June 2000.
Claire Parker, Coordinator of the Implementation Programme of
the FCCC Secretariat, noted that this workshop would provide input
into discussions on this issue at SB-12 and SB-13, which will lead
to a decision at COP-6. She said this process should give new
impetus for an international response to the needs of countries
vulnerable to climate change, including LDCs.
OVERVIEW OF THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Youba Sokona, Deputy Executive Secretary of Environmental
Development Action in the Third World, and Thomas Downing of the
Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford,
provided an overview of action on implementation of Article 4.8
and 4.9.
Youba Sokona presented case study experience relating to
droughts in the Sahel, as well as studies on coping with cyclones
and sea-level rise, noting the wide range of coping strategies
employed. These strategies included regional research and
monitoring initiatives, improved agricultural production
technologies and increased rural mobility. Coping strategies used
in Bangladesh relating to cyclones and sea-level rise included
early warning systems, safe refuges, public information and
cultural acceptance of these measures. He said lessons learned
from recent flooding in Mozambique should be used to advance
adaptation strategies. He recommended early adaptation action at
the international, national and local levels involving strategies
in the areas of: information provision to encourage greater
participation; capacity building; reconstruction to reduce
uncertainty; risk reduction through implementation of "low
regrets" and "no regrets" measures; and spreading
the risk of adverse effects.
Tom Downing said priorities for adaptation should be based on
the assessment of vulnerability and risk, and highlighted criteria
for evaluating adaptation measures and strategies related to,
inter alia, stakeholders and vulnerable groups, resilience and
effectiveness of the proposed measures, strategic responses,
timing and the likelihood of adverse impacts. He concluded by
calling for the immediate adoption of adaptation policies to
protect vulnerable populations and countries and for funds to put
existing technologies into use. He stated that such action could
be justified on broad social and economic grounds.
Chair Dovland then invited comments and questions from
delegates on issues raised during this presentation. Several
participants addressed the issue of low regrets and no regrets
options, with a number noting that a clear definition of these
terms and what options fit into these categories would be
valuable. The SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES BRANCH OF THE UN
DEPARTMENT FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS (UNSIDS) agreed with
the presenters view that we know enough in certain areas to
take immediate action. He also noted difficulties in quantifying
environmental vulnerability. Several delegates underscored the
need to enhance developing country capacity for conducting
vulnerability assessments. The US noted that vulnerability will
change over time, meaning ongoing assessments by all Parties are
desirable. He said adaptation issues should be integrated into
national development strategies. ZIMBABWE noted the need to
identify different levels of initial actions appropriate for
countries with different levels of development. She stated that
capacity building is a cross-cutting issue.
In the afternoon session, Martin Parry of the Jackson
Environment Institute at the University of East Anglia, UK,
presented recent research on impacts of climate change across
several sectors, drawing lessons for adaptation. He summarized the
likely global impacts of climate change under three scenarios:
business-as-usual; emissions reduction aimed at stabilizing CO2
levels at 750 parts per million; and emissions reduction aimed at
stabilizing CO2 levels at 550 parts per million, which would
require much deeper cuts that required under the Kyoto Protocol.
He noted that Africa and South Asia would be adversely affected
under all three scenarios. He stated that the two scenarios
involving CO2 reductions have the potential to delay massive
forest degeneration and reduce the increase in flooding. However,
he noted that even these mitigation scenarios would have minimal
impact on water supply, food production and the spread of malaria,
meaning that adaptation would be a significant feature under all
three scenarios. In terms of mitigation measures, he underscored
the importance of the 2010-2030 period, and identified water
management and species loss as key areas in this regard.
SESSIONS ON ADVERSE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Following the opening speeches and overview of the adverse
effects of climate change, a number of individual sessions were
held during 9 and 10 March to review adverse effects in several
specific areas: food security; water resources; economic
activities; coastal zones; human health; the needs and situations
of the LDCs; and, actions relating to funding, insurance and the
transfer of technology to meet the needs and circumstances of
developing countries.
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY: On 9 March,
Tom Downing made a presentation on food security. Focusing on
drought vulnerability and food security, drew attention to
existing vulnerability assessment and adaptation efforts, and said
climate diagnostics need to be integrated into responses at the
local level.
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: On 9
March, Jan F. Feenstra, Manager of the Netherlands Climate Change
Studies Assistance Programme of the Institute for Environmental
Studies, made a presentation on the adverse effects of climate
change on economic activities. He noted that climate change impact
assessment requires both climate change scenarios and
socio-economic scenarios.
Regarding adaptation, he stated that three kinds of adaptation
are important in the context of adverse effects of climate change:
autonomous adaptation, where plants, animals and humans will
modify their behavior in response to climate change; planned
adaptation, which results from policy decisions; and maladaptation,
where actions that do not take climate change into account
increase vulnerability to climate change.
He outlined a number of problems related to conducting impact
and adaptation studies in developing countries, including:
lack of funding for impact and adaptation studies, as most
available funding goes toward inventory and mitigation studies;
inadequate funds for technical assistance required to establish
research programmes and familiarize scientists with the relevant
models and the requisite multidisciplinary approach;
the absence of data and funds to collect data;
poor channels of communication between scientists, policy
makers and stakeholders, as well as lack of involvement among
government departments, other than the Ministry for the
Environment;
problems in motivating policy makers to take action on an issue
where results are uncertain, particularly in light of the
relatively short political cycle; and,
the lack of specific adaptation projects resulting from impact
assessments, often due to lack of funds.
Solutions to these problems could include: emphasizing and
funding impact and adaptation studies; providing extra funds for
in-country technical assistance; ensuring that studies focus on
the most important economic sectors; improving communication
between scientists, policy makers and stakeholders; identifying
win-win adaptation options that will have both short and long-term
effects; and initiating specific adaptation studies.
In the ensuing discussion, ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA highlighted the
role of the media in building support for climate change
adaptation measures at the grassroots level, noting that policy
makers will often respond to public pressure. ZIMBABWE noted that
communications and dialogue between policy makers and scientists
needed to be two-directional. UGANDA endorsed the need for
awareness raising.
Replying to a question from FINLAND relating to the fact that
some methodological guidelines for adaptation assessments are now
over a decade old, Feenstra said methodologies should continue to
be developed, but that this should not be used as a reason to
delay adaptation assessments. Responding to a question from the
PHILIPPINES concerning the role of the private sector in
adaptation studies, Feenstra noted that the private sector can
play a part, but much work is needed to raise its understanding
and awareness of climate change.
On 9 March, Brett Orlando, Climate Change Programme Officer at
the IUCN (World Conservation Union) presented recommendations for
action in the areas of: information gathering; capacity building;
policy/implementation; and finance, technology transfer, and
insurance. Specific actions recommended included: development of
an analytical framework for risk assessment by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), development of
tools and guidelines at the national level in developing countries
by the GEF and its partners; joint action to harness synergies
with other conventions; and the mobilization of financial and
technical development assistance by the World Bank, UNEP and UNDP
to support implementation of the priority actions.
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES: On 10
March, Bubu Jallow, Principal Meteorologist, Department of Water
Resources for the Gambia, outlined the impacts of climate change
on: the hydrological system; extreme events; freshwater systems;
inputs into water bodies; water supply and demand; and water
resources infrastructure and management. He noted that, while
precipitation is expected to increase at the global level, it will
be unequally distributed, with increases in high latitude regions
and decreases at lower latitudes, and with both impacts and
adaptive capacity varying across nations. He then outlined actions
for adaptation, including:
increasing storage capacity for water;
restoring and rehabilitating wetlands to reduce flooding;
strengthening institutional capacity to undertake assessment
and adaptation;
updating and developing meteorological and hydrological
networks and preserving existing databases;
legislating to regulate the abstraction of surface and river
water for irrigation;
introducing crops and varieties suited to water stress, and
improving management and efficiency of irrigation;
cooperating at the regional and river basin level; and,
improving modeling, planning tools and early warning systems.
During the ensuing discussion, INDIA questioned the
applicability of legislative measures to control abstraction from
rivers in cases where water volumes fluctuate widely. SWITZERLAND
noted that precipitation in central Europe in winter has increased
by 40%, with more intense rainfall rather than more days of
precipitation, which has resulted in flooding. The UK called for
the identification of the additional elements of water stress
arising from climate change. ZIMBABWE noted the need for regional
down-scaling of models to aid in assessing vulnerability and
adaptation options. FINLAND said high resolution climate models
are not yet well developed. The US commented that the discussion
on the impacts of climate change on water resource needs to
include implications for power production. Responding to a
question from NIGERIA, Jallow underscored that, while climate
change is not the only factor negatively affecting water
resources, it will exacerbate existing problems.
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH: On 10 March,
Roberto Bertollini, Director, Rome Division of the World Health
Organizations European Center for Environment and Health,
presented an overview of the possible adverse effects of climate
change on human health. He noted that possible adverse effects
could result from changes to the frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events, as well as from disturbances to ecological
systems, which could bring about, inter alia: changes in the
geographic range of vector-borne diseases; droughts; floods; and
population displacement resulting from sea-level rise.
Regarding vulnerability assessments, he suggested that:
monitoring and assessments need to take an integrated approach;
national assessments of climate-induced human health impacts
should constitute an important part of FCCC national
communications; information-exchange networks should be developed
and strengthened; and relevant research should be promoted, with
particular emphasis on empirical studies. He emphasized the
importance of adequate capacity for conducting vulnerability
assessments that require multisectoral collaboration, data
availability and comparability, trained personnel, and necessary
equipment. On the issue of adaptation, he noted that low-cost
adaptation options include: interagency cooperation; reduction of
social vulnerability; public education; early warning and epidemic
forecasting; support for infectious disease control; and
integrated environmental management.
In the subsequent discussion, several delegates drew attention
to recent reports of a spread of diseases such as malaria and
cholera to new areas, and suggested that this may relate to
climate change. Bertollini noted that traditional public health
measures can be effective in responding to these diseases, and
that public health infrastructure and systems need to be in a
position to address such problems effectively. He noted that
climate change may exacerbate or spread certain health risks, and
that this would require investment in the health system.
In response to a number of delegates comments on raising
awareness of the adverse effects of climate change on health,
Bertollini agreed on the need for awareness raising, while noting
that it is difficult to encourage policy makers to take measures
in response to scenarios for the year 2050. The NETHERLANDS
supported awareness-raising both among the public and policy
makers. The EUROPEAN COMMISSION underscored the potential role of
the private sector in terms of adaptation. Mohammed Sanusi
Barkindo (Nigeria), co-chair of the workshop session, stated that
"health is wealth," and noted the correlation between
health spending and health indicators.
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL ZONES: On 10
March, Mahendra Kumar, International Negotiations Officer for the
South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), emphasized
that the impacts of climate change in coastal zones range from
issues specific to coasts to more broadly manifested impacts
related to water supply, food production, and human health. He
said responses and adaptation need to be multi-sectoral, process
oriented, linked to integrated coastal zone management and
incorporated into long-term national development planning.
Specific responses identified in the national communications of
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) involved, inter alia,
coastal zone planning, modeling of storm surges, engineering
solutions, bans on sand extraction, replanting of littoral
vegetation, and coping strategies, including education and
relocation. He called for technology transfer in the form of flows
of knowledge, experience and adaptation equipment, and for
capacity building to raise awareness, especially in relation to
coastal processes. He noted the importance of equity and social
considerations and said that, while more adaptation measures can
be implemented as further knowledge becomes available, immediate
action should be taken.
In the subsequent discussion, ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA noted that
insurance companies are beginning to withdraw coverage and
increase rates for some coastal areas, which could impede economic
growth, particularly in the tourism industry. He said premiums can
be linked to adaptation on the part of the property owner, and
called for dialogue between governments and insurance companies.
MAURITIUS called for identification of common issues relating to
vulnerability and adaptation contained in SIDS national
communications that could be used in developing adaptation
strategies. Responding to JAMAICA regarding the appropriate level
at which to approach adaptation, Kumar said regional cooperation
is useful, as specific measures that can be modified at a low cost
could be identified and replicated elsewhere.
SPECIFIC NEEDS AND SPECIAL SITUATIONS OF THE LEAST DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES: On 10 March, Mamadou Honadia, Coordinator, National
Council for Environmental Management, Burkina Faso, outlined the
specific needs and special situations of the LDCs. He described
the shared characteristics of LDCs in terms of the poor state of
their economies and their health, education and industrial
sectors, and observed that 33 of the 54 LDCs are African
countries, while 15 are Asian or SIDS.
He stated that measures should be taken and assistance received
from developed countries in the areas of technology transfer,
financing, and actions related to socio-economic risk. Regarding
technology transfer, he said measures and assistance could be
applied in the areas of agriculture, water resources, integrated
management of coastal zones, the energy sector, and the
rehabilitation of arid and semi-arid zones affected by drought and
desertification. Regarding financing, he urged support for a
number of measures and actions, including, inter alia: adaptation
measures in the agriculture sector; a plan of action to combat
epidemics; early warning systems for disasters; local development
plans to combat desertification; sustainable management of forests
through reforestation programmes; studies and integrated projects
for coastal zone management; resettlement of industrial facilities
and other infrastructure affected by climate change; public
awareness campaigns; and both North-South and South-South capacity
building undertaken through workshops, training and joint
activities.
He also supported financing for vulnerability and adaptation
assessments and studies related to adverse effects of climate
change. In relation to socio-economic risks, he proposed the
creation and financing of early warning systems at a sub-regional
scale, the establishment of rapid intervention mechanisms, and the
restoration of areas affected by climate change. He concluded by
calling for LDCs to be given priority in terms of Article 4.8 and
4.9 and for a decision at COP-6 on an urgent plan to implement
Article 4.9. He cautioned that we should not wait for completion
of all national communications before taking action.
In the discussion that followed, UNSIDS supported the proposal
to give urgent attention to implementing actions for LDCs. NIGERIA
and ZIMBABWE expressed concern about an approach that might divide
the needs of LDCs and other developing countries, and supported
considering the needs of all developing countries together. In
response, Honadia noted that LDCs fit within the framework of
Article 4.8, but that their special needs are also recognized
under Article 4.9.
ACTIONS RELATED TO FUNDING, INSURANCE AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
TO MEET THE NEEDS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: On 10 and 11 March,
participants heard four presentations and engaged in discussion on
actions related to funding, insurance and the transfer of
technology to meet the specific needs and circumstances of
developing countries arising from the adverse effect of climate
change.
Presentations: Michael Cooper, CGU Insurance Group, emphasized
that insurance is a commercial enterprise. He noted the large
losses incurred recently by insurance companies due to storms,
cyclones and hurricanes, and said investments in preparedness,
mitigation and prevention are economically efficient. He noted
that large and growing cities in coastal areas are considered as
emerging risks by the insurance industry. He said the industry can
offer advice on risk management and loss prevention in developing
countries, drawing on its own research. He also stressed the role
of insurers and reinsurers in: raising public awareness; insisting
on sensible development of land and on more resistant designs and
standards; encouraging economic development that takes account of
climate change; and providing insurance for acceptable risks.
Hiro Kazuno, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, presented
examples of Australia, Japan and the US supporting adaptation
measures. He discussed a number of projects, including those
involving monitoring, training and early warning systems. Based on
evidence from these examples, he concluded that: the adverse
effects of climate change are threatening peoples livelihoods
in vulnerable areas; developed countries have been providing
assistance to vulnerable countries, as envisaged under Article 4.8
and 4.9; greater coordination of adaptation assistance among
developed countries would make such assistance more effective; and
assistance for adaptation activities could be strengthened if more
information was sought by and provided to developed countries
regarding vulnerable countries needs and concerns.
Espen Rønneberg, Inter-Regional Advisor for Small Island
Developing States, Water, Natural Resources and SIDS Branch of the
UN Division for Sustainable Development of DESA (UNSIDS), made a
presentation on the needs of SIDS, particularly in relation to
adaptation options. He suggested that the international community
could assist SIDS with adaptation in the following three areas:
actions aimed at making development more sustainable in light
of climate change by building an adaptation component into
development projects;
actions specifically oriented to adapt to the effects of
climate change, including coastal zone protection, agricultural
innovations and public education and awareness programmes; and,
actions aimed at capacity building.
He noted that the issue of insurance needed to be addressed to
ensure the long-term viability of the sustainable development
process for SIDS. He also stated that UNSIDS should become a
central hub for information, assistance, cooperation and project
facilitation. Regarding national communications, he emphasized
that these contain valuable information on vulnerability and
adaptation, which, once analyzed, should form the basis for
priority-setting, future activities and project development. He
also stated that information on experiences and lessons learned
from relevant past and ongoing programmes and projects would be
useful.
Youba Sokona said funding for adaptation in developing
countries should be integrated within existing development
programmes. He emphasized the need to explicitly incorporate
funding for adaptation in ongoing programmes, including those
existing under environmental conventions, as well as in
development aid programmes and National Environmental Action
Plans. Noting the lack of basic infrastructure in developing
countries, he stated that adaptation needs to be taken into
account when infrastructure is planned. He called for a high-level
policy dialogue on climate change that engages officials from all
relevant government ministries and departments. Such a dialogue
would aim at facilitating a more efficient use of resources by
identifying areas where synergies exist.
Discussion: In the ensuing discussion on these presentations,
the WHO drew attention to national disaster funds that are
collected through a surcharge on individual insurance policies and
collected in the case of disaster. The UK asked whether such a
model for insurance collection could work at the regional level,
and Cooper responded that a regional approach could work where
small-scale models would not. GREENPEACE asked whether mechanisms
exist to collect funds in LDCs, where there are few individual
insurance policies. Michael Cooper suggested that other options,
including taxation, could be explored.
IUCN noted that the insurance industry has a large stake in
whether the international community can succeed in addressing the
adverse effects of climate change, and asked whether insurance
companies might consider investing resources as a pre-emptive
strategy to help prevent such adverse effects. In response, Cooper
stressed that industry investments would have to demonstrate some
profit-making potential. He also noted that insurance companies
currently invest in research in order to better understand issues
of risk and risk reduction.
A number of delegates raised the issue of how adaptation
measures can be integrated into national strategies for
sustainable development. Youba Sokona stated that there are
different methods and various levels for applying integration. Bo
Kjellen (Sweden), co-chair of this session, noted that integration
can help avoid creating another layer of bureaucracy specific to
climate change.
On integrating adaptation criteria at the programme/project
level, SPREP welcomed the expansion and modification of existing
programmes to take into account new, emerging and actual needs.
The PHILIPPINES cautioned against reclassifying projects without
prior climate change vulnerability assessment and agreed
processes. NIGERIA said reclassification would create problems for
assessment. FRANCE supported revisiting existing projects and
programmes, and asked whether a further step could be taken in the
progress, suggesting regional or sectoral workshops on revisiting.
Youba Sokona called for active discussion and dialogue on
adaptation issues outside the climate change community.
PANEL DISCUSSION
On 11 March, participants convened for a panel discussion to
identify and reflect on the key issues and initial actions raised
at this workshop. The panel consisted of delegates representing
Bangladesh, Jamaica, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Uganda, and the
European Commission.
Panel presentations: BANGLADESH noted the adverse effects from
climate change affecting his country, including flooding, impacts
on agricultural production, malnutrition, and the risk of higher
incidences of some diseases. He noted that his countrys
greenhouse gas emissions are negligible in global terms. He raised
the need for capacity building for vulnerability and adaptation
assessments. He called for more funding for adaptation assessments
and for implementation. He highlighted the needs of LDCs and the
importance of technology transfer, and identified education,
training and monitoring as key areas requiring attention.
JAMAICA supported the establishment of regional climate centers
that could have a mandate to: strengthen monitoring and analysis
of climate change and sea-level rise; identify areas of
vulnerability; help develop integrated management and planning
frameworks for response measures; enhance institutional
strengthening and human resource development; and identify and
evaluate policy options that could be integrated into the national
agenda. He noted that participants had identified education and
awareness raising as important areas for taking action. He
suggested that education and awareness raising activities could be
aimed at three different groups: policy makers, students/tutors,
and the public. He said this workshop had also highlighted the
need to establish and improve effective early warning systems.
The NETHERLANDS noted some participants view that it is
important for all developing countries, including LDCs, to be
producing their national communications, as the vulnerability
assessment and adaptation sections will be of value to all
developing countries in identifying adaptation options. He drew
attention to participants calls for further linkages and
cooperation with other conventions, including the desertification
and biodiversity conventions. He said the period following a
disaster should be used as a window of opportunity to promote the
integration of climate change policies into reconstruction
projects and to raise awareness.
NEW ZEALAND emphasized participants reference to the
information gap, noting that the lack of information and data
exists at many levels. He said both Annex I and non-Annex I
Parties need to consider carefully what is required to address
these gaps, although he noted that the precise form of the
information is less important at this stage than starting the
process itself, as "the best should not be the enemy of the
good." Emphasizing the concept of integration as another key
issue, he said some participants had noted that all relevant
government agencies should be involved in what is a cross-sectoral
issue. He said governments need to identify the best means of
facilitating communications, mediation and institution building,
and noted that the idea of creating national teams that operate
within government and have external outreach was worth exploring.
He stated that climate change is an iterative process, and that
the appropriate policies and solutions will differ depending on
circumstances, meaning a pragmatic approach is necessary.
UGANDA highlighted three key issues: capacity building; poverty
reduction; and the need to develop an action programme for
adaptation. He emphasized the need for institutional capacity
building, and stressed the importance of establishing links to
programmes and agencies in areas considered national priorities,
such as poverty reduction, education and health. He also stressed
the need for poverty alleviation and climate change impact
assessment in key sectors.
The EUROPEAN COMMISSION highlighted the needs of populations in
LDCs and those in poverty in low and middle income countries, as
these people will suffer most from the adverse impacts of climate
change. He advocated mainstreaming the climate change agenda into
development programmes and projects. He further pointed to the
urgency of setting priorities in light of scarce resources, in
particular scarce human resources.
Discussion: In the ensuing discussion, many delegates observed
that a number of specific ideas and proposals for initial actions
had been identified during this workshop. Several delegates
endorsed the proposal for regional climate centers. UNSIDS
supported using existing institutions to establish regional
climate centers. NIGERIA expressed reservations about creating
centers that could be mono-sectoral in scope, and said regional
centers that addressed a number of related areas would be
preferable. SPREP said that empowering existing regional centers
to take on these activities would ensure that the initiative was
multi-sectoral. In response to the comments on regional centers,
JAMAICA stressed that the aim was not to create new institutions
but to establish this initiative within existing institutions.
ZIMBABWE said initial actions would cover impact assessments,
vulnerability assessment, evaluation of adaptation options and
adaptation project implementation. She noted that external and
internal interventions would be necessary in terms of these
initial actions. External interventions would relate to capacity
building, funding, and technology transfer, with a focus on
project implementation and insurance. Internal interventions would
relate to developing political will, awareness raising, and
integration of climate change in development planning.
MAURITIUS highlighted the important assistance that developed
countries can provide developing countries in terms of capacity
building for both human resources and equipment. He said capacity
building in terms of human resources should focus on training
those involved in climate change negotiations, relevant science
and research, and operational aspects at the national level. INDIA
noted that, although the transfer of technology was an important
tool in efforts to address climate change, the lessons and
solutions to be found in traditional knowledge systems should not
be overlooked. CANADA urged identification of priorities for
action as well as continuation of information-gathering, noting
that "action and learning are two sides of the same coin and
we have to keep moving on both."
On insurance, JAMAICA said governments will have to play a lead
role and should have insurance coverage in order to attract inward
investment. He stated that, if developed countries had implemented
their FCCC targets, adaptation would not be such an urgent issue
now.
CLOSING PLENARY
On 11 March, Chair Dovland noted that the workshop had covered
comprehensively the issues it had been mandated to consider,
including funding, insurance and the transfer of technology.
Reflecting on the key issues raised during the workshop, he
drew attention to delegates comments on the need for capacity
building, and said the regional approach identified by
participants would be reflected in his report. On the issue of
information gaps, he stated that the Secretariat should identify
what information is available to it from national communications
and other sources on vulnerability and adaptation assessments.
This could be supplemented by further information, which may or
may not be provided through national communications. He noted that
the water, health and food sectors had been identified as being
particularly important in terms of adaptation.
He observed that cross-cutting issues included the integration
of adaptation issues into development plans. He also noted the
need for better coordination between ministries and agencies.
Another key issue identified by participants was the need for
adequate funding. He also noted the discussion on the needs of
LDCs, as well as the importance of awareness raising. He then drew
attention to participants views on insurance, and said this was
an issue that should be explored further.
UNSIDS said it would be useful to develop a list of concrete
initiatives being conducted by insurance companies relating to
climate change mitigation. WHO said insurance companies should be
invited to any future workshop on this issue to help develop
specific measures in this area. QATAR noted the need for more
information on adverse effects to clear up some of the existing
uncertainties. MAURITIUS stressed the urgency of acting on Article
4.9. BRAZIL observed that, although information gaps need to be
filled, vulnerability and adaptation assessment are not mandatory
in non-Annex I communications, meaning that national
communications will not necessarily be the appropriate means to
fill this gap.
In response, Chair Dovland said that this is one of several
channels that exist to fill the information gaps. He said the
report from this workshop would reflect the ideas raised by
participants and contribute to discussions at SB-12. He said he
believed that this workshop had been a productive exercise and,
after thanking participants, declared the meeting closed at
2:30pm.
REPORT OF THE WORKSHOP ON THE IMPACT OF
IMPLEMENTATION OF RESPONSE MEASURES
SBSTA Chair Harald Dovland (Norway) opened the meeting on 13
March and noted that this workshop was the result of a decision at
the Fifth Conference of the Parties to the FCCC (COP-5). He said
the workshop would consider methodological approaches and
necessary actions under the FCCC relating to the impact of
implementation of response measures on, inter alia, terms
of trade, international capital flows and developmental efforts,
in accordance with FCCC Article 4.8 and 4.9 and in the light of
matters related to Protocol Article 3.14 (adverse effects). He
noted that issues to be addressed at this workshop would include
the nature, content and sources of information needed in relation
to the impact of response measures, procedures and modalities for
the provision of information, and what actions are needed,
including those relating to funding, insurance and the transfer of
technology. He stated that the outcome of this workshop will be a
report from the Chairs of the subsidiary bodies that lists the
main points and issues raised by participants. The report will
provide an input into discussions at the twelfth and thirteenth
meetings of the subsidiary bodies (SB-12 and SB-13), which will
lead to a decision at COP-6.
OVERVIEW OF THE IMPACT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF RESPONSE MEASURES
Thomas Rutherford, Associate Professor, Department of Economics
of the University of Colorado, provided on overview of the
economic impact of the implementation of response measures from a
modelers perspective. He underscored the usefulness of
collaborative efforts within the modeling community. He presented
the Energy Modeling Forum 18 (EMF 18) programme on international
trade dimensions of climate policies, which brings together ten
modeling programmes and focuses on: terms of trade effects and the
transfer of impacts across countries; leakage rates and their
determinants; impacts on developing countries; oil price
responses; and decomposition methodologies. He also introduced the
Global Trade Analysis Programme (GTAP), a database that collates
international economic production and trade statistics to
facilitate modeling and policy analysis. He then presented
indicative outcomes from his work within the EMF and GTAP
framework, focusing on implications of the implementation of the
Kyoto Protocol.
He outlined international trade effects, including a reduction
of international oil and coal prices and a migration of energy
intensive production to non-Annex B (developing) country Parties.
He said the economic impacts of response measures would be
negative on OECD countries and could be extremely negative on oil
producing developing countries, while other developing countries
could experience either positive and/or negative effects. He said
China and India would benefit from response measures, and Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) and Annex B (developed country Party)
trade may provide limited welfare gains to developing countries.
Chair Dovland then invited comments and questions from the
floor. Some delegates noted the complexity of these models, while
several suggested additional assumptions or noted specific
inadequacies. SWEDEN underscored the importance of factoring in
renewable energy sources in modeling. CANADA questioned whether
existing models fully capture the evolution of new, less
carbon-intensive technologies. The UK and UNSIDS pointed to the
inaccuracy of models based on the assumption of a uniform carbon
tax, as many countries plan to implement multiple policies and
measures to reduce emissions. Rutherford agreed that additional
assumptions could be useful, but noted limitations inherent in
economic equilibrium models. SOUTH AFRICA supported the need to
develop modeling activities and improve data collection in
developing countries. In response to a question from BOLIVIA,
Rutherford said Annex B countries may place restrictions on
imports of energy-intensive products from non-Annex B countries.
SESSIONS ON THE IMPACT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF RESPONSE MEASURES
Following the opening of the workshop and overview of the
impact of implementation of response measures, sessions were held
during 13 and 14 March to review the impact of response measures
on: terms of trade and international capital flows; developmental
effects; and the specific needs and special situation of LDCs. In
addition, a session was convened to consider what actions are
necessary as a result of these impacts, including actions relating
to funding, insurance and the transfer of technology. The
following section outlines the presentations and discussions that
took place during these sessions.
IMPACT OF RESPONSE MEASURES ON TERMS OF TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL
CAPITAL FLOW
Oil markets and oil production revenues: Knut H. Alfsen,
Director of the Center for International Climate and Environmental
Research (CICERO), made a presentation on the Kyoto Protocol and
its impact on global oil markets and production revenues up to
2020. He noted that his assessment used the CLIMOX model, which
covers 13 sectors in 12 regions. He said this model has a number
of advantages, as it includes fugitive methane emissions,
explicitly addresses the issue of oil supply, including
non-conventional oil, and accounts for likely regional variations
in policy. Using this model, he presented three scenarios based
on: business-as-usual; prolonging the Protocol to 2020; and
regulating the greenhouse gas emissions of all countries.
He said the CLIMOX model suggests that the establishment of a
climate regime will result in a decline in revenue from oil, gas
and coal production when compared to the business-as-usual
scenario. However, distribution of these losses among regions is
expected to vary according to the fuel in question. He noted that
some oil producing countries are heavily dependent on revenue from
oil, while gas and coal producers are generally less reliant on
these products for their incomes. In addition, he concluded that
the distribution of revenue losses will be affected by the nature
and coverage of the Protocol and the type of policy instrument
used to reach emission targets.
In the subsequent discussion, SAUDI ARABIA said there seemed to
be agreement that the Protocol will have an impact on fossil fuel
exporters, although there might be divergence over the extent of
this impact. The US and UK stated that the losses noted in this
study did not mean actual losses in overall revenue from the
baseline year, as revenues would actually increase considerably
under all three scenarios. Rather, it was the rate of revenue
increase that differed under each scenario. AUSTRALIA suggested
that losses in potential oil revenue could result in growth
prospects in other areas that could compensate for any
hypothetical loss predicted under these models. OPEC noted that
many oil exporting countries are also gas exporting countries,
meaning the impact on these economies would be even greater.
A number of delegates raised issues relating to the assumptions
and elements included in the CLIMOX model and scenarios used. In
response to GREENPEACE on whether renewable energy factors were
included in this model, Knut Alfsen said it was not explicitly
included, but that energy efficiency considerations were accounted
for. In addition, he noted that climate policy is just one of many
factors affecting oil revenue.
Impacts of Annex B policies on Non-Annex B Parties: John
Reilly, Associate Director for Research of the Joint Programme on
the Science and Policy of Global Change at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, outlined five ways that Annex B response
measures may impact on non-Annex B countries:
terms of trade effects, especially effects due to changes in
the prices of oil, gas and coal;
impacts on the volume of trade, as lower economic growth in
Annex B countries translates into less demand for non-Annex B
products;
migration of energy-intensive production from Annex B to
non-Annex B countries;
economic effects of payments related to the CDM; and
migration of capital and labor.
He recommended: improving estimates of the relationship between
the carbon price and the impact on non-Annex B countries based on
advice from a panel of experts; improving modeling by using
observed Annex B carbon prices as a basis for estimating the
impact on non-Annex B countries; and converting various Annex B
policies into a "carbon price equivalent."
In the ensuing discussion, SAUDI ARABIA and NIGERIA cautioned
that energy intensive industry may not necessarily relocate to oil
exporting countries. NIGERIA stated that consumer and ethical
values may create trade barriers between high and low energy
intensive countries. The UK questioned the assumption that
implementing climate change policies in Annex B Parties
necessarily leads to reduced economic growth.
Analytical frameworks/models and sustainable development:
Tariq Banuri, Senior Research Director, Tellus Institute,
discussed climate change models and policies from a broader
sustainable development perspective. He said a lesson from using
earlier frameworks/ models is that they need to be participatory
at both the international and national level, and include an
effective and inclusive policy process. He said it may be
necessary to rework current models or develop complementary
models. Noting the global income inequity, he also addressed the
issue of economic rents and the need for their more equitable
distribution.
In the ensuing discussion, AUSTRALIA expressed doubt that a
reconstruction effort of current climate change models was
necessary. SAUDI ARABIA noted the vulnerability of developing
countries that are heavily dependent on the export of fossil
fuels. He said the FCCC recognizes that no country should bear a
disproportionate share of the burden of the impacts of climate
change. In response to a question from BOLIVIA on the CDM, Banuri
said it could provide incentives for investment in developing
countries, but that much work remained to ensure that it
contributed to sustainable development.
IMPACT OF RESPONSE MEASURES ON DEVELOPMENTAL EFFORTS: On 14
March, Vanida Govender, Corporate Environmental Manager at ESKOM,
a South African government-owned power utility, made a
presentation on how response measures to climate change in Annex I
countries could affect the international coal market and coal
exporting developing countries. She emphasized that small impacts
on the price of fossil fuels would have a major impact on
exporters, with implications for welfare and development prospects
for people in poverty. She outlined a sequential approach to
minimizing the negative impact of response measures based on both
short-term and long-term policy measures. She said action in the
short term should involve: modeling of response measure impacts,
with peer review of the models by Party representatives; technical
review of response measures described in national Annex I
communications; and research and development to explore a range of
compensation measures. Action in the long term should involve:
mitigation measures in Annex I countries to eliminate negative
impacts in non-Annex I countries; technology transfer linked to
restructuring of fossil fuel dependent economies; technology
transfer linked to the CDM and an adaptation fund; and measures to
ensure that efficient technologies are installed when energy
intensive industry relocates.
During the ensuing discussion, the UK highlighted the potential
of the FCCC to stimulate the development of renewable energy
sources to provide further electrification in developing
countries. Vanida Govender underscored the need for a strong
economy to support investment in electrification through emerging
technologies. SAUDI ARABIA called for immediate action to create
structures for dealing with impacts of response measures, with
compensation occurring after the extent of impact has been proved.
JAPAN noted that compensation is not mentioned in the FCCC and the
Kyoto Protocol. The UAE stated that compensation exists as a
general principle of international law. Vanida Govender emphasized
the need for research as a basis for policy development on
compensation.
SPECIFIC NEEDS AND SPECIAL SITUATIONS OF THE LEAST DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES: On 14 March, Tariq Banuri, Senior Research
Director, Tellus Institute, discussed climate change policy within
the framework of sustainable development. Noting that 40% of the
worlds population lives in poverty, he said the challenge is to
achieve development in the context of reducing global carbon
emissions.
He outlined the concept of "sustainable livelihoods,"
which considers development objectives in terms of identifying
vulnerabilities and establishing sufficient capacities in
developing countries. He said the capacity for sustainable
development is determined by the availability of various types of
capital, including financial, technological, ecological, social,
institutional, cultural and climate capital. He noted that climate
is a form of capital that is shrinking on a global level. However,
developing institutional capital can help create the necessary
technological and financial capital to achieve sustainable
development.
He said climate-related actions to promote sustainable
development should include: a focus on the "sustainable
livelihoods" approach; a transition to renewable forms of
energy; capacity building for project certification, monitoring
and preparation, and self-protection, research and policy making;
a gradualist rather than "sudden change" approach; and
the development of national adaptation funds.
Philip Gwage, Assistant Commissioner, Applied Meteorology and
Data Processing, Ministry of Land, Water and Environment of
Uganda, considered the impacts of response measures on LDCs. He
said LDCs were particularly vulnerable to climate change and its
response measures, given their economic fragility and high levels
of poverty. He said response measures may result in: declining
exports from LDCs to developed countries; increasing prices of
essential goods in LDCs, especially if oil prices are high; an
increasing debt burden; and decreasing development assistance,
which may not be offset by foreign direct investment, as
investment conditions are often less attractive in LDCs than in
other developing countries. He called for: studies specifically
relating to the impact of climate change and response measures on
LDCs; and elimination of market imperfections relating to oil and
other commodities.
In the ensuing discussion, several countries noted the adverse
impact of high energy prices on LDCs. The NETHERLANDS said he
understood that the impact of response measures on non-annex I
energy importers would be positive or neutral overall. JAPAN
observed that oil prices have been rising regardless of FCCC-related
measures. He noted the adverse impact of oil price rises on LDCs,
and asked who is gaining from these increases. Bo Kjellen
(Sweden), who chaired this session, noted that commodity prices
have a history of price fluctuations. SAUDI ARABIA noted market
distortions, and said tax made up 80% of the final price of oil in
some OECD countries. He said all developing countries will be
affected by climate change or response measures.
UNSIDS supported allowing only renewable energy within the CDM.
IRAN said renewable energy sources have only a limited capacity to
compensate for conventional sources. In response, Banuri said
there must be a shift in the long term to renewable sources.
Replying to a question from BURKINA FASO on compensation, Banuri
said he did not believe that large financial transfers provided
long-term benefits. He stressed the need for investment in
capacity rather than compensation. FRANCE called for more work on
the transportation sector, as it is critical in terms of energy
use.
CONSIDERATION OF ACTIONS NECESSARY: On 14 March, delegates
considered what actions are necessary, including those relating to
funding, insurance and the transfer of technology, with regards to
the impact of implementation of response measures. Participants
heard four presentations and engaged in discussion on this issue.
Impact of climate change measures on OPEC: Faten Alawadhi,
Downstream Oil Industry Analyst, Energy Studies Department, OPEC,
discussed the impact of response measures on OPEC. She noted that
studies on the impacts of Protocol implementation show reductions
in revenues for oil exporting developing countries of 10-45%,
although impacts on natural gas revenues are less clear. She
supported parallel discussions aimed at: reaching a consensus on
the extent of losses through more assessment and modeling work;
and exploring how Annex B commitments to minimize the impact of
their mitigation policies can be fulfilled. She suggested actions
by Annex B Parties, including, inter alia: removing
distortions in Annex B energy markets and restructuring existing
energy taxes to reflect carbon content of fuels; assisting in
economic diversification; and providing funding and transferring
technology to support projects related to CO2 storage, reduction
of gas flaring and venting, and energy efficiency. She called for
all GHGs to be included in Annex B Parties abatement policies.
Impact of response measures on the coal industry : Ron
Knapp, Chief Executive of the World Coal Institute, outlined key
aspects of the international coal market, noting the rise in
consumption in developing countries. He emphasized that both coal
producer and consumer countries will be adversely affected by
response measures, but that effects will be unevenly distributed.
He said the objective of the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce GHGs, not
carbon intensity, and called for: effective market solutions,
including the use of voluntary measures and the Kyoto mechanisms;
technological development in response to market circumstances; and
the promotion of clean coal technology.
Macro and micro issues in relation to impacts and actions:
Jonathan Pershing, Head of the Energy and Environment Division,
International Energy Agency, reviewed macro and micro analyses of
the impacts of response measures, with particular emphasis on the
energy sector. He concluded that, in spite of some shortcomings,
such models can offer insights on specific policy options. He
presented a framework for analyzing individual policies and their
impacts, and applied it to an EU voluntary agreement on CO2
reductions in the transport sector. He concluded that, in this
example, the adverse effects were negligible and there were
ancillary policy benefits. In looking at these models and
approaches, he said it is difficult to evaluate the impacts and
separate climate policy consequences from other factors. He also
suggested that near-term impacts are likely to be relatively
minor, but that this may not apply in the longer term.
Methodological approaches and necessary action: Thomas
Rutherford, Associate Professor, Department of Economics of the
University of Colorado, highlighted how disaggregation of data
affects results and presented a model showing impacts of response
measures by Annex I countries on Saudi Arabia. He noted that, when
oil exporting countries are considered individually, the adverse
impacts appear greater than when the countries are clustered
within regions. He said impacts of response measures are
heterogeneous across non-Annex I countries, and more developing
country specific data is needed. On response measures, he observed
that replacing the existing mix of taxes with a targeted carbon
tax could decrease costs both to Annex I countries and oil
exporters. He also recommended action focusing on diversification
and a move to greater production of non-energy goods in countries
dependent on oil exports.
Discussion: In the ensuing discussion, JAPAN suggested that
oil producers take measures now to diversify their economic
structures. Faten Alawadhi noted that a number of barriers to
diversification existed, while Pershing said the investment
climate is not always conducive for diversification. The US called
for modeling of potential cartels and agreed reduction cut-backs
by oil producers. IRAN supported concrete action to, inter alia:
enhance research and development related to energy efficiency, the
use of natural gas, and advanced fossil fuel technologies;
diversify the economies of fossil fuel producing developing
countries through facilitating access to markets and preferential
treatment; transfer technology across a number of sectors; and
support training programmes and capacity building. ZIMBABWE said
some action should be taken despite current uncertainties,
including further research and development on: reduction of
emissions without reducing consumption; clean coal;
diversification; and win-win actions. SWEDEN supported considering
the suggestions by Iran and Zimbabwe and involving developing
countries in research and development efforts. The US said careful
analysis of impacts in developing countries of climate change
policies in Annex I countries since the FCCC entered into force
constitutes appropriate action prior to consideration of future
policies and measures. SAUDI ARABIA called for action as well as
research. QATAR noted that oil is a commodity that will be
depleted and said revenues should be strategically invested to
ensure future welfare. AUSTRALIA stressed the limitations of
current models and need for inclusion of further elements, such as
sinks and all GHGs.
PANEL DISCUSSION
On 15 March, participants convened for a panel discussion to
identify and reflect on the key issues and initial actions raised
at this workshop. The panel consisted of delegates representing
Bolivia, Canada, Japan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the UK.
Panel presentations: BOLIVIA underscored the need for
progressing sustainable development within the FCCC framework. He
called for capacity building for developing country governments in
the context of the new, deregulated economy, especially in the oil
and gas sectors. He noted the information and research and
development gap in developing countries, and suggested building
indigenous research capacity as well as training researchers from
developing countries in developed countries and initiating joint
research efforts.
CANADA stated that models provide necessary but not sufficient
information for policy making and constitute one of a number of
tools available to policy makers. He said the uncertainty inherent
in models and incompleteness of datasets presents a key challenge.
He identified opportunities for action despite the uncertainties,
calling for: the application of a wide range of response measures,
including the use of the Kyoto mechanisms, enhancing sinks and
considering all six GHGs, to achieve cost effectiveness; and
research on the impacts of policies already implemented as well as
improvement of data collection, particularly in developing
countries. He said not enough time had been spent considering
positive ancillary impacts of response measures on developing
countries.
JAPAN stressed the importance of adhering to the terms of
references, noting that the scope of the workshop was impacts
under the FCCC. He emphasized the limitations of modeling,
particularly in the light of fluctuations in oil prices. He
highlighted the need to study impacts already experienced since
the FCCCs entry into force, rather than projecting into an
uncertain future. He indicated his willingness to consider Irans
list of proposals for action, but said Japan cannot accept the
idea of compensation. He underscored that oil producers should
take measures now to diversify their economies, in light of
increasing revenues due to high oil prices. He affirmed Japans
commitment to assisting LDCs.
NIGERIA suggested that, as many non-Annex I Parties have yet to
submit national communications, information abstracted from
relevant government ministries could be provided as an interim
measure, as this would facilitate immediate action relating to the
impacts of response measures. He called for action to:
introduce a paradigm shift in the scoping and process of
modeling that will, inter alia, include other GHGs, and
disaggregate the impact of response measures on regions and, if
possible, countries;
develop and promote technologies that could accommodate
consumption of fossil fuels without increasing GHG emissions;
expand the global carbon sink;
establish institutions and procedures, with active
participation by all Parties, to address issues relating to an
adaptation or compensation fund, linkages with other conventions,
and the flexibility mechanisms;
build institutional and human resource capacity; and
ensure investment into developing countries to promote less
carbon intensive energy, renewable energy, and technology
transfer.
SAUDI ARABIA said that, in spite of the uncertainties, all
models agree that there will be negative impacts from response
measures on developing countries. He called on Annex I Parties to:
remove subsidies and restructure tax systems to reflect the amount
of GHGs in each fossil fuel; remove existing barriers to more oil
use in the power generation sector; discourage nuclear energy use;
encourage and assist in wider use of CO2 sequestration
technologies; establish a fund/funds to compensate impacted
developing countries; and assist impacted developing countries
dependent on fossil fuel exports to diversify their economies. He
said more analysis on impacts is needed, but this should not
prevent the compensation issue from being on the negotiating
table. He said no one is asking for compensation today, only after
impacts are proved. He stressed that, under the FCCC, developing
countries cannot accept a disproportionate burden of the impacts
of climate change or response measures.
The UK said discussion at this workshop had identified a number
of inadequacies in the models used, including their assumption of
a uniform carbon tax and failure to account for non-CO2 GHGs.
However, he noted unanimity among all models that, with regard to
fossil fuels, demand, production and revenue is projected to rise.
He said this workshop had raised the issue of LDCs and that the
poorest communities are the most vulnerable. He noted potential
benefits of response measures, such as through relocation of
industry, and highlighted the need to consider consumers as well
as producers. He noted that participants had considered what
developing countries could do to further their policy objectives,
and said one action was to put aside rent from the recent high
prices and revenues from oil sales for insurance provision or
diversification.
Discussion: In the ensuing discussion, the PHILIPPINES said the
burden of proof in terms of documentation of impacts is shifting
from Annex I to non-Annex I countries. The UAE pointed to the
information gap in terms of impacts of response measures and said
Annex I countries are obliged to take the lead in bridging the
gap. IRAN commented that the workshop had focused too much on the
recent oil price rise, noting that this is not a permanent
phenomenon. Mohammed Reza Salamat (Iran), who chaired this
session, agreed that the current rise cannot be a major factor
when detecting impacts of response measures, while the UK
underscored the difficulty of trying to assess the impacts against
severe market fluctuations.
On modeling, PORTUGAL noted that models are an indicative tool,
but cannot prove anything. Noting the importance of biomass for
many LDCs, AUSTRALIA said models need to take into account all
GHGs and sinks. The PHILIPPINES and ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA called for
additional refinement of economic analysis, including other
analytical tools besides modeling.
IRAN welcomed the transfer of technologies to advance
diversification, as long as the technologies are sophisticated and
modern. Salamat noted links between the current workshop and the
upcoming workshop on policies and measures. The NETHERLANDS noted
the need for national communications from more non-Annex I
countries, and disagreed with the concept of a fund for
compensation. ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA called for expanded dialogue
with the WTO and UNCTAD.
JAMAICA noted that the oil exporting developing countries had
presented a strong case relating to loss of income. He said it
would be disappointing if Article 4.8 and 4.9 was not implemented.
CANADA said it would be useful to focus on maximizing the benefits
of response measures, particularly in relation to the worlds
two billion poor. GREENPEACE noted that it should not be assumed
that relocation of carbon intensive industries would benefit
developing countries, as these countries themselves will take on
commitments in the near future. She supported removal of subsidies
on fossil fuels to help renewables, and asked panelists from Annex
B Parties when their countries would remove fossil fuel subsidies.
In response, the UK and CANADA noted their liberalization of
energy markets and renewable energy measures. SAUDI ARABIA said
subsidy removal should also apply to nuclear energy.
CLOSING PLENARY
On 15 March, Chair Dovland outlined key issues raised during
the workshop to be included in the Chairs report. He noted
participants comments that models are important and relevant
tools for their work, as well as statements on the need for a
comprehensive modeling approach that would include, inter alia,
sinks, all GHGs and mechanisms. He noted the call for modelers to
take into account specific policies and measures, not simply
carbon taxes, and the need to include developing countries in
modeling networks and activities.
On actions needed, he noted statements on the importance of
improving data availability from developed and developing
countries from national communications and various other sources.
He said capacity building and technology transfer issues had been
raised. He took note of calls by some participants for an
action-oriented approach to look further into the issue of
diversification, and noted proposals for examination of
restructuring with regard to tax policies and subsidies. He also
noted participants comments on the need for further
consideration and action relating to funding to address proven
impacts of response measures. He said reference to sustainable
development had been made, as had the importance of considering
LDCs and the position of the poorest.
Mohammad Reza Salamat (Iran), who co-chaired the closing
plenary, noted participants comments on difference in the
situations of various developing countries, and on identifying
those developing countries dependent on fossil fuels, either as
producers or consumers. Bo Kjellen (Sweden), who had chaired
earlier workshop sessions, underscored several participants
comments on the need for close cooperation between the climate
convention and other conventions, particularly the desertification
convention.
SAUDI ARABIA said the Chairs report should note discussion
on compensation and on a comprehensive approach in addressing
actions. CANADA and the UK said modeling should address net rather
than gross impacts. JAPAN said the report should reflect the fact
that some issues were raised but may not have been discussed
in-depth or agreed on. UNSIDS suggested that the FCCC Secretariat
investigate and advise on any concerns or issues relating to
impacts raised in non-Annex I communications received so far.
Chair Dovland noted that this workshop had built on and
advanced discussion since the previous workshop in September 1999.
He thanked participants and the Secretariat for their hard work
and valuable contributions, and declared the meeting closed at
1:30pm.
THINGS TO LOOK FOR BEFORE COP-6
FCCC WORKSHOPS: A workshop on
"Issues related to Articles 5, 7 & 8 of the Kyoto
Protocol" (national systems, adjustments and guidelines) will
be held from 14-16 March 2000 in Bonn. A workshop on
"Technology transfer for the Latin America & the
Caribbean region" will be held from 29-31 March 2000 in El
Salvador. A workshop on "Best practices in policies and
measures" will be held from 11-13 April 2000 in Copenhagen. A
workshop on "Non-Annex I communications for the Latin America
& the Caribbean region" will be held from 1-5 May 2000 in
Mexico City. For more information, contact: the FCCC Secretariat;
tel: +49-228-815-1000; fax: +49-228-815-1999; e-mail: secretariat@unfccc.de;
Internet: http://www.unfccc.de/sessions/ workhops.html
CTI/INDUSTRY JOINT SEMINAR ON TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION IN LATIN
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: This seminar will be held from
27-28 March 2000 in San Salvador, El Salvador. It will focus on
the role of the private sector in the diffusion of climate
friendly technology. For more information contact: Megan Gardiner,
CTI Secretariat at the International Energy Agency; tel:
+331-4057-6684; e-mail: megan.gardiner@iea.org
SEATTLE SUMMIT ON PROTECTING THE WORLD'S CLIMATE: This
meeting will be held from 3-5 April 2000 in Seattle, USA. The
summit is being organized by the Climate Institute in partnership
with Climate Solutions. It aims to bring together key individuals,
including leaders in the information and telecommunications
revolutions of the last two decades. For more information,
contact: the Climate Institute; tel: +1-202-547-0104; fax:
+1-202-547-0111; Internet: http://www.climate.org/seattlesummit
PACIFIC ISLANDS CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE
VARIABILITY AND SEA LEVEL CHANGE: This meeting will be held
from 3-7 April 2000 in Rarotonga, Cook Islands. The meeting is
being organized by the South Pacific Regional Environment
Programme (SPREP), in partnership with the National Tidal
Facility, UNDP and GEF through the Pacific Islands Climate Change
Assistance Programme. For more information, contact: SPREP; fax:
+685-202-31; e-mail: kaluwin@sprep.org.ws; Internet: http://www.sprep.org.ws
CLIMATE POLICY WORKSHOP: FROM KYOTO TO THE HAGUE - EUROPEAN
PERSPECTIVES ON MAKING THE KYOTO PROTOCOL WORK: This workshop
will take place from 18-19 April 2000 in Amsterdam, and is being
organized by the European Forum on Integrated Environmental
Assessment. The workshop will review scientific information
relevant for the EU and its Member States in preparing for FCCC
COP-6 and will aim to enhance the policy relevance of
climate-related research in Europe. For more information, contact:
Albert Faber, RIVM; tel:+31-30-274-3683/3728; fax:
+31-30-274-4435; e-mail: albert.faber@rivm.nl; Internet: http://
www.vu.nl/english/o_o/instituten/IVM/research/efiea/announce.htm
CONFERENCE ON INNOVATIVE POLICY SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE: This Conference will be held from 25-26 April 2000 in
Washington DC. It is being co-hosted by the Pew Center on Global
Climate Change and the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
The meeting will consider innovative policies currently being
implemented by industrialized country governments and the private
sector to address climate change. For more information, contact:
Michelle Pilliod; tel: +1-202-544-7900; fax: +1-202-544-7922;
e-mail: pilliodmp@aol.com; Internet: http://www.pewclimate.org/forms/innov_conf.html
12TH SESSION OF THE FCCC SUBSIDIARY BODIES: SB-12 will be
held from 12-16 June 2000 in Bonn. It will be preceded by one week
of informal meetings, including workshops. For more information,
contact: the FCCC Secretariat; tel: +49-228-815-1000; fax:
+49-228-815-1999; e-mail: secretariat@unfccc.de; Internet: http://
www.unfccc.de/sessions/sessions.html
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE COMMUNICATION:
This conference will be held from 22-24 June 2000 in Kitchener-Waterloo,
Ontario, Canada. It will be hosted by Environment Canada and the
University of Waterloo and is intended to support effective
communication as a means of strengthening the climate change
science-policy process. Participants will examine the role of
communication in perceptions and knowledge of climate change,
assess the effectiveness of different tools in raising awareness
of climate change, and identify obstacles to effective
communication. For more information contact: Jean Andrey,
Department of Geography, University of Waterloo; tel:
+1-519-888-4567 ext. 3629; e-mail: jandrey@fes.uwaterloo.ca or
contact Daniel Scott, Adaptation and Impacts Research Group,
Environment Canada, tel: +1-519-888-4567 ext. 5497; e-mail:
dj2scott@fes.uwaterloo.ca;
Internet: http://geognt.uwaterloo.ca/c3confer/
FCCC 13TH SESSION OF THE SUBSIDIARY BODIES: SB-13 will be
held from 11-15 September 2000. It will be preceded by one week of
informal meetings, including workshops. For more information,
contact: the FCCC Secretariat.
FCCC SIXTH CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES: COP-6 will be held
from 13-24 November 2000 in The Hague, the Netherlands. For more
information, contact: the FCCC Secretariat.
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