Timothy Lenton, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler, Jim Hall, Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,
Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, 105 Proc. of the Nat’l Acad. of Sci. 1786, 1786 (12 February 2008);
see also World Wildlife Fund, Climate Change: Faster, Stronger, Sooner (2008) (“It is currently forecast that [Arctic] summer sea ice could completely disappear somewhere between 2013 and 2040 – a state not seen on planet Earth for more than a million years.”).
See generally, Climate Briefing Note on Tipping Points & Abrupt Climate Changes (IGSD, forthcoming 2008).
Lenton et al.,
supra note 1, at 1788; Peter Schwartz & Doug Randall,
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (October 2003),
Internet.
V. Ramanathan & Y. Feng,
On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead, 105 Proc. of the Nat’l Acad. of Sci. 14245, 14245 (23 September 2008).
Id.
Id. at 14247.
See also James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David W. Lea & Martin Medina-Elizade,
Global temperature change, 103 Proc. of the Nat’l Acad. of Sci. 14288, 14288 (26 September 2006)(“Global warming is now 0.6ºC in the past three decades and 0.8ºC in the past century.”).
Ramanathan & Feng,
supra note 3, at 14246-47.
Id. at 14245-46.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, David Beerling, Valeris Masson-Delmotte, Mark Pagani, Maureen Raymo, Dana L. Royer & James C. Zachos,
Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? 3
Open Atmospheric Science Journal (forthcoming 2009) [hereinafter
Target Atmospheric CO2].
Ramanathan & Feng,
supra note 3, at 14247.
Id. at 14245.
Lenton et al
.,
supra note 1, at 1788 (“Transient warming is generally greater toward the poles and greater on the land than in the ocean.”);
see also Jane Qiu,
The Third Pole, 454 Nature 393 (24 July 2008).
P. Lemke et al., Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange,
Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground,
in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis 339 (S. Solomon et al. eds., 2007) (“Recent decreases in ice mass are correlated with rising surface air temperatures. This is especially true for the region north of 65°N, where temperatures have increased by about twice the global average from 1965 to 2005.”).
Petr Chylek & Ulrike Lohmann,
Ratio of the Greenland to global temperature change: Comparison of observations and climate modeling results, 32
Geophysical Research Letters L14705 (21 July 2005).
Qiu,
supra note 11, at 393.
V. Ramanathan & G. Carmichael,
Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon, 1 Nature Geoscience 224 (23 March 2008).
See Qiu,
supra note 11, at 393 (“The Tibetan plateau gets a lot less attention than the Arctic or Antarctic, but after them it is Earth’s largest store of ice. And the store is melting fast. In the past half-century, 82% of the plateau’s glaciers have retreated. In the past decade, 10% of its permafrost has degraded. As the changes continue, or even accelerate, their effects will resonate far beyond the isolated plateau, changing the water supply for billions of people and altering the atmospheric circulation over half the planet…. The melting seasons on the plateau now begin earlier and last longer.... If current trends hold, two thirds of the plateau glaciers could be gone by 2050.”) In the nearby Tibetan Plateau Steppe, where the headwaters of the Yangtze, Mekong, and Indus are located, there is concern both for short-term flood and long-term reductions in water supplies.
See,
e.g.,Qiu,
supra note 11, at 395 (“The risk of floods, though, is but a short-term danger far exceeded by long-term issues with water supplies atop the [Tibetan plateau].”)
Lenton et al
.,
supra note 1, at 1788.
Ramanathan & Carmichael,
supra note 15.
See also Flanner, M.G., C.S. Zender, J.T. Randerson & P.J. Rasch
, Present-day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow, 112 J. Geophys. Res. D11202 (2007) (noting that “the ‘efficacy’ of BC/snow forcing is more than three times greater than forcing by CO2”).
Id. at 224.
Lenton et al
.,
supra note 1, at 1786; Committee on Abrupt Climate Change & National Research Council, Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises 107-08 (2003).
James Hansen,
Climate Catastrophe, New Scientist (28 July 2007).
Target Atmospheric CO2, supra note 8.
Ramanathan & Feng,
supra note 3, at 14247-49.
Peter Read & Jonathan Lermit,
Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS): a Sequential Decision Approach to the threat of Abrupt Climate Change, 30 Energy 2654, 2654 (November 2005) (“Abrupt Climate Change is an issue that ‘haunts the climate change problem’ (IPCC, 2001) but has been neglected by policy makers up to now, maybe for want of practicable measures for effective response, save for risky geo-engineering.”);
see also Lenton et al
.,
supra note 1, at 1792 (“Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change.”). This may be changing, however, as the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) recently launched IMPACTS – Investigation of the Magnitudes and Probabilities of Abrupt Climate Transitions – an effort by six national laboratories to address abrupt climate changes.
See Science Daily, Abrupt Climate Change Focus Of U.S. National Laboratories (23 September 2008),
Internet.
(The initial focus is on four types of ACC: instability among marine ice sheets, particularly the West Antarctic ice sheet; positive feedback mechanisms in subarctic forests and arctic ecosystems, leading to rapid methane release or large-scale changes in the surface energy balance; destabilization of methane hydrates (vast deposits of methane gas caged in water ice), particularly in the Arctic Ocean; and feedback between biosphere and atmosphere that could lead to megadroughts in North America.).
See,
e.g., James Hansen,
Scientific reticence and sea level rise, Environ. Res. Lett. 2, 5 (2007).
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,
Global Warming: Stop worrying, start panicking?, 105 Proc. of the Nat’l Acad. of Sci. 14239, 14239-40 (23 September 2008).
Ramanathan & Carmichael,
supra note 15, at 222 (“The BC forcing of 0.9 W m–2 (with a range of 0.4 to 1.2 W m–2) … is as much as 55% of the CO2 forcing and is larger than the forcing due to the other GHGs such as CH4, CFCs, N2O or tropospheric ozone
.”);
see also Mark Jacobson,
Control of Fossil-Fuel Particulate Black Carbon and Organic Matter, Possibly the Most Effective Method of Slowing Global Warming, 107 J. Geophys. Res. D19 (2002); and Qiu,
supra note 11
, at 396(“Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon should be the top priority,” according to Xu Baiqing of the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research.)
Role of Black Carbon on Global and Regional Climate Change: Hearing on the role of black carbon as a factor in climate change Before H. Comm. on Oversight and Gov’t Reform, 110th Cong. 4 (2007) (testimony of V. Ramanathan).
See Guus J. M. Velders, Stephen O. Andersen, John S. Daniel, David W. Fahey & Mack McFarland,
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate, 104 Proc. Nat’l. Acad. Sci. 4814, 4814-19 (20 March 2007),
available at the PNAS website. (From 1990 to 2010, the Montreal Protocol will have reduced climate emissions by a net of 135 billion tonnes of CO2-eq., delaying climate forcing by up to 12 years. This is ~ 13% of forcing due to accumulated anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and several times the reductions sought under first phase of Kyoto Protocol.). In 2007, the Montreal Protocol was further strengthened to accelerate the phase-out of HCFCs; that adjustment has the potential to produce mitigation up to 16 billion tones of CO2-eq.
See U.S. EPA 2008 Climate Award Winners, Team Award Winners,
Internet. (“The U.S. EPA estimates that, through 2040, the HCFC agreement could reduce emissions by up to 16 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent. This is equal to the greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity use of more than 70 million U.S. households over the next 30 years.”); Technology and Economic Assessment Panel, United Nations Environment Programme, Response to Decision XVIII/12, Report of the Task Force on HCFC Issues (with Particular Focus on the Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism) and Emissions Reductions Benefits Arising from Earlier HCFC Phase-Out and Other Practical Measures 8 (August 2007),
available at the UNEP - Ozone Secretariat website.
Johannes Lehmann, John Gaunt & Marco Rondon,
Bio-char Sequestration In Terrestrial Ecosystems – A Review, 11 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 403, 404 (2006).
Group of Eight Summit, Heiligendamm, Ger., June 6-8, 2007,
Growth and Responsibility in the World Economy: Summit Declaration, ¶ 46 (June 7, 2007) (“Improving energy efficiency worldwide is the fastest, the most sustainable and the cheapest way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security.”).
The IPCC has predicted that renewable energy sources, which have “a positive effect on energy security, employment and on air quality,” will be able to provide 30-35% of the world’s electricity by 2030. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Summary for Policymakers,
in Climate Change 2007: Mitigation 13 (B. Metz et al. eds., 2007). The IPCC has also found that “wind is the fastest growing energy supply sector.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Scoping Meeting on Renewable Energy Sources 4 (Olav Hohmeyer & Tom Trittin eds., 2008);
see also Greenpeace & Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, at 38 (2006) (“Under the Advanced wind energy growth projection, coupled with ambitious energy saving, wind power could be supplying 29.1% of the world’s electricity by 2030 and 34.2% by 2050.”).
See Hashem Akbari, Surabi Menon & Arthur Rosenfeld,
Global Cooling: Increasing Worldwide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, Climatic Change (forthcoming 2008) (If 100 large urban areas switched their roofs and pavement to highly reflective materials, the authors calculate this would “induce a negative radiative forcing of 4.4x10-2 Wm-2 equivalent to offsetting 44 Gt of emitted CO2. A 44 Gt of emitted CO2 offset resulting from changing the albedo of roofs and paved surfaces is worth about $1100 billion. Assuming a plausible growth rate of 1.5% in the world’s CO2-equivalent emission rate, we estimate that the 44 Gt CO2-equivalent offset potential for cool roofs and cool pavements would counteract the effect of the growth in CO2-equivalent emission rates for 11 years.”);
see also Hashem Akbari,
Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, at the Fifth Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA (9 Sept. 2008),
available at the California Climate Change Portal.
In California, which sets strict energy budgets for new construction, residential and some non-residential buildings can receive energy credits toward their energy budgets for installing “cool roofs.” Cool roofs can lower roof temperatures up to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, reducing energy use for air conditioning and associated urban heat islands and smog. Cal. Code Regs. tit. 24 § 118 (2007).
See Eighth International Conference on Environmental Compliance and Enforcement, Cape Town, S. Afr., Apr. 5-11, 2008,
Cape Town Statement, for an affirmation of the benefits of environmental compliance and enforcement.
Int’l Network for Environmental Compliance and Enforcement [INECE], Jump-Starting Climate Protection: INECE Targets Compliance with Laws Controlling Black Carbon (June 12, 2008) (on file with INECE),
available at the INECE website.
INECE, Recent Amendments to U.S. Lacey Act Should Help Protect Forests Worldwide (on file with INECE),
available at the INECE website.