Kornelis Blok, Ecofys, outlined a joint study on future options by the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) and Ecofys, sponsored by the European Commission, and listed five elements of a post-2012 regime: a three-stage agreement on emissions reductions; agreement on land-use change and deforestation; agreement on adaptation; agreement on technology; and inclusion of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms.

In discussing the five elements, Niklas Höhne, Ecofys, proposed a multi-stage approach to reducing emissions based on three country groups and an emissions cut-off level between five and nine tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita. He examined whether it would be preferable to have a separate agreement on land-use change and forestry (LUCF) or an integrated agreement. Considering agreement on adaptation, he proposed a low but increasing carbon levy to finance adaptation. Höhne highlighted the need to promote technology change, mentioning that a possible technology agreement could be either input or output oriented, and listed: energy efficiency in buildings, cars, and manufacturing; as well as renewable energy; clean fossil fuels; nuclear energy; and agriculture as key areas for technology cooperation. Höhne stated that the 450 ppm concentration target would be achievable with these steps, but noted that Annex I countries must commit to 30% emissions reductions. He discussed different options for engaging the US and outlined a “fall-back” treaty option.

Asbjørn Torvanger, CICERO, discussed options for the post-2012 negotiation process, including an early or delayed agreement. He indicated preference for an integrated agreement which would, inter alia, enhance flexibility and transparency, and enable different commitment profiles. He identified the UNFCCC as the best negotiation framework, and proposed: a “coalition of willing” countries; dialogue and informal processes; the involvement of non-State actors; and linking with other issues, such as development and energy security. He highlighted the need for: European leadership; the achievement of current targets; willingness to take further action; and positive signals on collaboration and partnerships.

Joshua Wairoto, Kenya Meteorological Department, underscored the importance of the equity principle in a post-2012 climate regime. He identified the need to: make larger emissions reductions; bring the US onboard; and address developing countries’ adaptation concerns by, inter alia, ensuring the functioning of the Least Developed Country and the Special Climate Change Funds.

Discussion: Participants discussed: research on emissions reductions needed for a 380 ppm concentration level; energy security and dependency on fossil fuels; the link between trade, climate, the Kyoto Protocol, and the World Trade Organization; the role of the LUCF sector in reaching the 450 ppm target; and African views on a desirable per capita emission level.