Day 3 at the Rio Conventions Pavilion focused on the theme of scenario planning for transformative change for biodiversity outcomes. Sessions in the morning reflected on insights from ongoing future modelling exercises that look at the implications of climate change scenarios for biodiversity, as well as scenarios for “bending the curve” of biodiversity trends. In the afternoon, participants debated the relevance of these analyses for operationalizing the 2050 vision, with a closing panel focusing on the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Specific topics covered included:
- An overview of scenario exercises that are currently underway that could support the achievement of the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD);
- Lessons from harmonized modeling exercises aiming to project magnitudes and spatial distribution of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss or gain under a range of climate and land-use future scenarios;
- The contribution of sectoral scenarios in the broader mainstreaming agenda and ensuring relevance for biodiversity policies; and
- The contribution of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Nature’s Futures scenario in integrating targets for human development and nature.
The event was co-organized by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (DRIFT), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Université Paris-Sud.
Photos by IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis
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