2023 is set to be the warmest year on record so far, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Following the hottest September ever, 2023 will be approximately 1.4°C above pre-industrial average temperatures. As governments and other stakeholders gather in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), for the UN Climate Change Conference, the sense of urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more critical.

Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will meet in Dubai to continue charting the pathway for global efforts to address climate change. Discussions will build on progress made at the 27th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) held in November 2022 and the 58th sessions of the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) held in June 2023.

The first big ticket item of the meeting is the completion of the first Global Stocktake (GST) under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The aim of the GST is to assess collective progress towards achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement, notably looking at the state of greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation efforts, and finance flows. This assessment, which is to take place every five years, is intended to guide the course of further climate action.

The assessment of the first GST is unequivocal: the world is severely off track. Yet, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report showed, solutions are readily available and, with rapid intervention, it is still possible to secure a safe and liveable future. Against this background, there is a clear expectation for the outcome of the first GST to lead to a course correction. How this will look remains to be seen: while there is growing momentum for the adoption of a target on tripling renewable energy capacity, discussions on fossil fuel phase-out pathways remain contentious.

The second big ticket item is the operationalization of the funding arrangements and fund for responding to loss and damage. The decision to establish such a fund was hailed as the breakthrough achievement of COP 27. However, the breakthrough decision was set up as an empty shell, with all details to be worked out at a later stage. Discussions on this took place throughout 2023 in various formats, including the Second Glasgow Dialogue, dedicated workshops, and ministerial consultations. A Transitional Committee was established to develop recommendations on modalities such as delivery triggers, eligibility criteria, and sources of funding.

Developing countries are calling for the operationalization of the funding arrangements and fund at COP 28. Yet the task is by no means small and such a timeline couldn’t be more ambitious. For reference: it took five years for the Green Climate Fund to become fully operational. Notes on the work of the Transitional Committee underscore not only the number of technical questions that have yet to be addressed, but also the need for political-level guidance to sort out divergences.

There is also a host of other issues to be addressed in the five, largely concurrent negotiations streams relating to the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement, the SBI, and the SBSTA. Among others, parties will continue their deliberations on a new collective quantified goal on climate finance, the global goal on adaptation, cooperative approaches under the Paris Agreement (Article 6), and just transition pathways.

As was the case at the Bonn Climate Change Conference in June 2023, delegates can expect the Dubai conference to face disagreements over the meeting’s agendas. Two agenda items proposed by the Like-minded Developing Countries promise to be especially controversial:

• Urgently scaling up financial support from developed country parties in line with Article 4, paragraph 5, of the Paris Agreement to enable implementation for developing countries; and
• Operationalization of the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in accordance with Article 2, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement.

Much attention will be paid to the role of the UAE Presidency and to how fossil fuel production will be addressed throughout the meeting. The conference will also serve as a platform to raise the profile of interlinkages between climate change and food and health, respectively.

The conference will convene from 30 November - 12 December 2023, at the Expo City in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The Earth Negotiations Bulletin writers for this meeting are Jennifer Bansard; Jennifer Allan, Ph.D.; Anna Dubrova; Christina Mundin; Hillary Rosentreter; Joyce Melcar Tan; Tomilola Akanle, Ph.D.; Mari Luomi Ph.D.; and Lynn Wagner, Ph.D. The Digital Editor is Mike Muzurakis. The Editor is Pamela Chasek, Ph.D.