UN Climate Change Conference – Antalya, November 2026

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable, said a new UN Environment Programme report released in September 2026. 

Global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C, likely within the next few years, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights but, the report argues, it is still possible to bring temperatures down and achieve global goals in the Paris Agreement. But this requires strong political will and multilateralism, effective policies, inclusive governance, and finance. 

In this light, when the 2026 UN Climate Change Conference (COP 31) convenes in November, action is critical. However, this year’s COP is set to be both unusual and significant. First, it will operate under an unprecedented partnership between Türkiye and Australia. Under this arrangement, Türkiye will hold the COP 31 Presidency and be responsible for the Action Agenda, while Australia will serve as the COP 31 President of Negotiations and lead the negotiating process during the Conference. This partnership and resulting division of responsibilities were the result of the compromise between the two countries over the hosting of COP 31.

Second, the meeting will also be the first UN Climate Change Conference since the United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement took effect in January 2026. The absence from the Agreement of one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters will affect the political context in which the negotiations take place. These developments form part of the broader geopolitical context within which the Conference will convene. Global conflicts, economic uncertainty, energy security concerns and growing distrust among countries mean that multilateral cooperation continues to be strained. These tensions affected negotiations during the Bonn Climate Change Conference in June 2026 and will likely continue to influence what governments are willing to agree to at COP 31.

Despite this challenging context, COP 31 participants will be in the hot seat, both literally and figuratively, as they consider a number of important matters. The Conference comes at a significant point in the Paris Agreement’s ambition cycle. It will mark the beginning of the second Global Stocktake (GST 2), which will provide the next formal assessment of collective progress under the Paris Agreement and inform the next round of national climate action. GST 2 covers the period 2024–2028 and will conclude at COP 33 in November 2028. 

Mitigation remains critical. The Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme (MWP) is currently due to continue until the eighth meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 8), which will convene alongside COP 31 in Antalya. Parties must decide whether the MWP should continue beyond 2026 and, if so, whether and how its design and operation should be strengthened to better support mitigation action.

Just transition is another key issue to watch. At COP 30, Parties agreed to develop a just transition mechanism, but its operationalization was left for further negotiation. At COP 31, Parties are expected to consider the mechanism’s modalities, functions, and institutional arrangements, including how it could enhance international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building and knowledge-sharing. Parties will also review the effectiveness and efficiency of the Just Transition Work Programme and consider its continuation.

Climate finance will also undoubtedly continue to feature prominently. COP 30 established a two-year work programme on climate finance, including Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement. Parties have diverging views on the work programme’s scope and modalities, and discussions on this issue will continue at CMA 8. 

The UN Climate Change Conference will convene from 9–20 November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye. It will include the 31st session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 31), the 21st meeting of the COP serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 21), and CMA 8. The 65th sessions of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA 65) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI 65) will also convene.

The Writers for the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB) COP 31 team are: Tomilola Akanle Eni-ibukun, Ph.D.; Jennifer Allan, Ph.D.; Daniel Bertram; Maria Cristina Mundin; and Gabriella Boger Prado, Ph.D. The Digital Editor is Mike Muzurakis. The Editor is Pamela Chasek, Ph.D.